KingKat

Cameron, true to his reputation, is being simple-minded here. It's not all about projections, probability should factor too. I doubt teams would ever base their valuation on a single figure. They would (or at least should) be looking at ceiling and at floor and at how wide the gap between the two is. One of the problems with using projections in fantasy for instance is that two players can be projected to provide the same value but the probability is completely different and ultimately that should factor hugely in how you value the two players. The other thing is that the whole $/war thing doesn't really work when every team has vastly different budgets. The Rays operate under a huge $/WAR imperative. They will cash in Price because that's there m.o. but most contending teams don't operate that way. They will sacrifice surplus value so that they can project more comfortably into the playoffs. If they have deep pockets, that's just not a big deal. The Rays on the other hand will take the chance that they may be cashing in the marginal wins that will keep them out of the playoffs (they sure do cut it close most years).

I wonder if this just has something to do with there being a weird and very low baseline for catchers. You have a handful who are good and a large pool of interchangeable guys from which includes most of the starters.

I prefer Trout Trout.

Firstly Lee, there was a lot of head scratching over the expensive relievers that Oakland and TB brought in. No one got a free pass. Secondly Lee, why wouldn't you give at least some benefit of the doubt to teams that have a good track record? When evaluating TB's acquisition of Bell why shouldn't the track record of the gm figure in the analysis. The fact that they apparently saw something in Fernando Rodney that no one else seemed to see is not somthing that should be just ignored. The possibility that they see something similar in Rodney is A REAL POSSIBILITY not just wishful thinking. Finally, maybe you should try to live up to you Cooler Heads Prevail name instead of being a dumb reactionary or failing that just call yourself Lee_Marvin again.

I find the whole question about Stroman's durability as a starter kind of a moot point. Maybe he hits a wall after a few seasons like Kazmir and Lincecum did but if he does that doesn't really matter. What matters is whether he perfoms well in the years of control the Jays acquired by drafting him. Maybe durability becomes a concern if and when you have extension talks but if he perfoms well enough that you're even considering an extension, it means you absolutely nailed the pick.

Yes that's true. Get positve value players everywhere else and you have a lineup that can carry you. That's a way more effective approach than AA's single-minded pursuit of SP.

Yep. Just some dude name Oliver.

Stars and scrubs will not work. The Jays have four potential four war players in the lineup in Lawrie/Reyes/Encarnacion/Bautista. What they need is competence everywhere else. If the fill the rest of the roster with garbage, the positive contributions of the core four will be cancelled out. That's basically what happened last year with three black holes LF/2B/C. They are already crossing their fingers on Melky. They already have a fringy replacement for JPA. At the very least, get a real upgrade at 2B. It's at least as important as bringing in more pitching.

Agreed. Even Carroll on a minor league deal would be problematic. The Jays already have Goins who can act at the first callup in case of an infield injury. They need someone ahead of him on the depth chart who pushes him down to AAA not someone behind him on the depth chart that pushed him to the 25 man roster (and perhaps even starting since the alternative is Izturis).

The Brewers can't compete in that division so they are cashing in an older player.

He's versatile as f***. He's be a good bench option if the Jays didn't already have Izturis. Sadly I think he'll be brought in to compete with Goins for the starting job. Looks likes it will be the same plan as in 2013, lots of different guys for 2B and none of them any good.

I can't justify taking him over Trout but I would definitely give consideration to Yadier. He's probably too old to be a team building block now but the impact of a catcher of his calibre has got to be huge. He's already a 5-6 win player before you add framing data and the effect an elite catcher has on a pitching staff is not something that's easily qualified but it's probably substantial. Could that make him more valuable than a 10 win player like Trout? That seems widely unlikely but short of having a generational talent like Trout, I would seriously consider building my team from the catcher position outwards.

. The accuracy of the runs prevented calculations is one of the most contentious things in sabermetrics.

Yes. It's literally based on an estimate of how many runs the fielder prevented (or caused if he's a negative value fielder).

That would be way better than the Thames trade.

Franklin for Sierra.

Basically, it becomes like regular free agency with whoever put in 20 in on it. Interesting that the party that wasn't at the table (the japanese player) makes out the best.

Certainly explains why the Yankees are spending elsewhere.

What a difference a day makes.

I wouldn't. Even though Sanchez's is theoretically closer to the majors, there's arguably greater uncertainty around him. At the very least there's certainly no less uncertainty. Give me the guy who is beasting.

Yeah you're right. Even if Hanson was knocking down the door (which he isn't), the Jays probably don't do that.

I wonder what kind of + would be required to move Lind + for Hanson. That seems like an idea worth exploring.

He's a fringy starter at CF at best and if you use him to push Rasmus to LF you basically kill Rasmus's value to accomodate that fringy option. It's one or the other not both IMO. That being said if the return for Lind addresses the 2B hole, I'm fine with opening up LF for someone new. Having Melky penciled in as the everyday LF is not a very prudent approach.

Same cost per year too. It's not like the Jays situation either, the BoSox have the pull to sign whoever they want and they chose to go with an inferior option.

Well since this has turned into an electric guitar conversation, might as welll bring up that oh so great guitarist from Minnesota... ... named Steve Tibbetts: