This is a good point. IMO it's a perfect storm of external factors that includes everything from the Dodgers wanting him to go away to the sports media wanting Bauer's head. Add it all up and there was little reason for Manfred to do anything other than throw the book at him. There's little downside from Manfred's point of view.
I suppose there is a chance that MLB actually did find damning evidence when an ambitious DA couldn't (Jim- yes there are different burdens of proof). But with the admin leave did they find over 400 games worth of evidence? When other guys have actual convictions and get 20 games time served?
And then looking at how Manfred handled the All-Star Game last year I think there's a good shot that outside influences played a factor based upon his past behavior. Maybe political influences isn't the right word but mainstream sports media hates Bauer and that's largely because of their politics/culture war stances vs. his. Manfred himself may not be acting politically but I do think he's acting based upon what others think, and THOSE people are acting politically, if that makes sense.