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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    Hit several balls above 110 in that series, a couple at 115, so yes looked better. For a couple of weeks his top exit velocity each game seemed to be more like 95 to 105, which are more like .450 expected average hits, as opposed to the .900 his 110+ mph line drives and fly balls. are
  2. Olerud363
    Not sure if a 4 game rest is needed. Maybe he should of been given days off once or twice a month the entire season.
  3. Olerud363
    This is feeling Tulo like...
  4. Olerud363
    ? Did something happen, just looked up Martin and Richardson and both have similar stats with their new teams. Berrios through 3 starts, 2 good, 1 bad, has exactly the same production he did before... Jays have gained 1 game on Oakland and 3 or 4 on Boston... So how on earth does the trade look bad.?? If things progressed at the same rate they have since the trade was made Jays would get a wild card.
  5. Olerud363
    2 more ks last night... Vlad is really in a deep slump and it is showing up multiple ways. K'd 6 times in the 4 game series without a single hard hit line drive. In my opinion he needs a bit of rest as this keeps getting worse and worse. Bo got a couple of days off, Vlad should too. Load management.
  6. Olerud363
    What is up with this board? The Yankees are leading 8-7.
  7. Olerud363
    August 2024 Standings after a predictable Boston quick rebuild Boston 70-30 Tampa Bay 54-46 NY Yankees 54-46 Toronto Blue Jays 52-48 Baltimore Orioles 49-51 Grant77 "We can write off Baltimore and Boston so we are only 2 games out!"
  8. Olerud363
    I guess we will see. If the hypothesis that he is fatigued and lost exit velocity is correct (which I hope it isn't) this trend will continue. Players can't aim a ball in a single at bat, but they have spray distributions over time, and if Vlad is fatigued he may not pull the ball as much. If he is fatigued he may lose 5 -10 mph of exit velocity. This will result in a lot more outs to the big part of the park. Believe me I hope he is not fatigued and starts hitting 440 foot rockets again, starting tonight off Ohtani.
  9. Olerud363
    A better analogy would be 105-115 mph ground balls into the shift vs 95-105 mph ground balls into the shift... there is going to be a difference in the number that get through. What I observed, again from a video from twitter was that Vlad was hitting a bunch of 95-105 mph fly balls to the deep part of the park that were 105-115 mph earlier in the season. Does the data back that up? Is it predictive? I don't know,.
  10. Olerud363
    His 110 mph balls to center may be turning into 100 mph balls to center because of fatigue. Take a look at Marcus Semien's batted ball profile. Marcus doesn't hit the ball as hard as Vlad but pulls it more and hits more fly balls. What do you think would happen to Marcus Semien if he had Vlad's pull% and ground ball rate? What do you think would happen to Vlad if he lost some exit velocity because of fatigue and hit the ball about as hard as Semien? If I am implying anything, it is not that Vlad is hitting to center more, it's that Vlad is getting tired, not hitting the ball as hard, and that hurts him because he uses the big part of the park a lot.
  11. Olerud363
    You don't have to open this thread. If you see it near the top just ignore it. It's a message board... people post stupid things, people speculate. People on the board are speculating about his weight, his exit velocity, his fatigue on all the other threads anyway. I've even seen JimCanuck speculating that he was hungover... not sure if that is just a joike or there is some reason for thinking that, like he has friends in LA who he parties with. Anyway I don't see a problem with using this thread to speculate on why VGJ is slumping... if it's just random and the slump is gone tonight or tomorrow this thread will go inactive too.
  12. Olerud363
    His hr/fly ball was super low his rookie season, not great his second season and awesome most of this season. The last couple of weeks it seems a lot of fly balls to center, not hit quite hard enough to be useful. A 110 mph fly ball to center is useful. A 99 mph fly ball pullted to left is useful. A 99 mph fly ball hit to dead center is not useful. Not sure what is so controversial about this.. He is not squaring the ball up as much it's showing up in lots of ways... more pop ups, and the balls he is hitting at 20-30 degrees aren';t as hard as they were earlier in the year. .
  13. Olerud363
    Well it's true. A 385 fly ball to center is an out. He isn't getting enough exit velocity to get the ball out to center. He was previously.... What's silly about it? it happens to be true. It could be a fluke, he could be tired and losing a bit of bat speed... I don't know. I'm not trying to predict the future here... just pointing out that there was some video of his recent hard contact... all fly balls to center dying on the track. I didn't make the video, if you have a complaint find it on twitter and direct complaint to them.
  14. Olerud363
    Good thing we didn't sign him to a 10 year 390 million dollar contract. Not that any body cares but here is my assessment. Obesity - not a 280 lbs lard ass again (yet) but not the 240 pound lighting cat he was in June... I would say 255 and getting softer daily. Not sure what to do about this mid season. Tiredness - high. Exit velocities down a bit I think Pull dat ball - low. Lots of work for the center fielder. Solutions - hire Cito (Pull dat ball) expert and a good nutritionist. I'd give him a couple of extra days off but might be hard in a pennant race. Tonight's expectations - not quite there yet. Expect 2 ground balls, a k, and a 103 mph 395 footer to center (0/4)
  15. Olerud363
    Someone did a video of his hardest hit contact that has been caught. It was a lot of 99-105 mph drives 385 to 410 foot to center. Not pulling the ball much. 99-105 mph fly balls to center are kind of useless even with a good launch angle. Previously he was either pulling the fly balls more, or had about 10 mph more exit velocity.
  16. Olerud363
    The previous 3 Jays to put up historic 4-5 month runs all faded. Olerud 1993, Delgado 2000 and Bautista 2011. You could also include Fred McGriff in there who was on track for 40+ homers and an MVP in 1989 but didn't homer his last 25 or 30 games. Guerrero is fading earlier then they did, which isn't surprising given he is only 22 and still a fairly heavy guy. 4 or 5 scheduled rest days the rest of the way could be helpful. Keep an eye on the exit velocities. They seem down to me. in the last homestand a lot of 385 foot drives to the warning track in center. Not pulling the ball as much, and not enough exit velocity to get it out to center.
  17. Olerud363
    He's looks pretty tired to me. I'd start giving him some scheduled off days. I'd also consider moving him back to third, in the order not that it should matter but maybe the lineup stuff gets in there head. There are a couple of off days coming up next week which should help. I'd probably give him another off day this week (just not against Ohtani, baseball deserves to see that... maybe tonight so he's fresh against Ohtani).
  18. Olerud363
    AA is co-president but only gets to choose 5 roster spots, keep in mind those are the last 5 critical roster spots to get the guys like Revere and Pillar who Shatkins can't get. To make up for only giving AA 5 roster spots we will also let AA choose the manager (he will choose Gibby). I think this will make everyone happy. AA for co-president!
  19. Olerud363
    Good idea. If they don't win tonight I'll smash my computer, my phone, my satellite radio (which is attached to my new car so will involve smashing the dashboard)..... I'm just saying that not every loss is a season ending loss, but tonight's could be. Jays need to win every single series to have a chance, and if they don't win tonight they won't win the series. I don't think they'll win tonight. In 2015 they had Ben Revere to set the table for the sluggers and they had Kevin Pillar. Don't really have anything like that on this team. What about getting AA back and making him co-president with Shapiro? Shapiro and Atkins can get 20 spots of the 25, and AA can get the stuff like Revere, Pillar and a couple of good bullpen arms where Shatkins doesn't get that stuff.
  20. Olerud363
    I didn't really smash the TV. I allowed them this one tough loss because the 2015 Blue Jays also had a tough loss at the same point. Tonight is the most important game in franchise history though... if they lose tonight, season over, they will prove beyond a shadow of a doubt they are not on a 2015 like run. If they win they will leave open a sliver of hope. Will be watching with a hammer so I can really smash the TV if they don't come through tonight.
  21. Olerud363
    For any one who is seriously thinking of jumping off a Cliff 2021 Blue Jays are ahead of 2015 Blue by a couple of games (though 2 games farther behind East and Wild Card leaders) The equivalent early tough loss for the 2015 Blue Jays was this one a couple days after the deadline https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TOR/TOR201508010.shtml Mark Lowe blew a save and it was very obvious that the team just didn't have what it takes. Can't blow saves during the pennant race. What a waste of assets at the deadline! This probably isn't the 2015 team because no one is. That was once in a generation. This is probably the team that is better then it's record, wins 85 and then needs to spend the winter trying to figure out how to win 95.. however Yesterday's loss doesn't prove they aren't on a 2015 run definitively, because the 2015 team had a similar loss early in it's run.
  22. Olerud363
    Every human is attached irrationally to something, like Politics, or religion... maybe your obsession is God, or Jesus, or Anthony Faucci. or your "Trump won" group... Sports is like the healthiest obsession (will not storm capitol or lock your self inside for 3 years)... the mods know this thus ban competing obsessions from discussion to make sure we only focus on our healthy Blue Jays obsession). So this group is like a very mentally healthy slice of humanity compared to the rest... Anyway Blue Jays suck, can't win if they aren't ahead by 5 runs. Can't hit shitballers, can't hit velocity in late innings, the bullpen still sucks, Berrios is a 3.9 ERA guy in the AL East, Robbie Ray is a Yankee in November, Semien a Red Sox, and Austin Martin is Craig Biggio (Caven Biggio is Russ Adams), the season is over and I need a new TV (smashed up the other one when Hand gave up that shot to Ramirez).
  23. Olerud363
    It will be interesting to see how he is valued. He is going to finish 2021 just a tad behind George Springer as a 31 year old (Springer was 26 fWAR, Semien with a hot finish could be at 25). I am guessing 5 100 is about right... on the other hand his numbers outside of 2019/2021 just look blah... as opposed to Springer whos numbers looked good every year. And when I say "looked good", I mean looked good to Tabby. Tabby on Springer (any year) - an elite player, you know what you are going get. 30 Homers, drives in runs, scores runs, year in year out. Tabby on Semien (2019/2021) - he's becoming one of those guys. 30 homers, driving in runs, scoring runs, he's up with the big boys this year. Tabby on Semien (other years) - He's only hitting .230 but he's got a bit of pop. He'll get you 15 homers, maybe 20. He's not bad in the field either. Semien is good on the fangraphs but dips below Tabby 'elite' level many years. How will the market view him?
  24. Olerud363
    Middle aged Grichuk + Dickerson in platoon = Bichette That is an exaggeration but maybe not a huge one. These guys could hit .280 .325 .490 as partners.
  25. Olerud363
    Berrios with twins - 14-11 3.50 200 ip 200 ks Berrios with Jays and guidance from Pete walker - 16-10 3.25 200 ip 215 ks Berrios with Rays - 18-4 2.15 185 ip 280 ks Basically took a 3 WAR pitcher that Pete can imporve to a 4 WAR pitcher and prevented Rays from having a 7 WAR pitcher
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