Olerud363

So do you think that Tellez is obviously a level down from EE in 2010, or Bautista in 2008/2009?? I'm just curious what is the benefit of discarding Tellez, who is projected for a win or so, and replacing him with guys on the other side of their career, projected for 2 wins?? Do you have a system for discarding youngish players?? Part of rebuilding is discovering surprises... Do you have a surprise discovery system?? Or do you think that you just have to give up on ever finding the next EE, Smoak or Bautista, just to avoid the risk of playing a replacement level player in a rebuilding season. I am just curious... what is your methodology to separate Smoak 2016, from Tellez 2019??

I feel like in general the Jays have had some bad luck with babip, and just guys having random bad years. Tellez, Drury, Mckinney, Fisher, Grichuk, Hernandez They are all the same guy... not too much patience, hit ball hard... if they ever have a bit of luck and a bit more patience they will be good. They hit what .220 as a group?? Will they be better next year?? What if they had a bit of good luck and did improve plate discipline as a group?? They are like a .285 on base percentage all together. They don't have to be Ted Williams... if their combeined on base percentage went up to .315 they'd be way better. Can that happen??

Tellez is projected as a 1 WAR player... So to improve by 2 WAR you need a 3 WAR guy.. someone like Edwin. 1. The projection systems say Tellez and Smoak will be about the same the next couple of years.. 2. Tellez will be 25 and 26 next couple of years, basicaly his prime. 3. He could be better then we think as he's been through a lot the last couple of years 4. His batting average on balls in play was really low last year I feel like whoever you got to replace him for 5 million will be a sure 3 WAR player in their 25-29 years, but will be past that now.

I agree with this too... I don't think Drury is terrible but if you can do something better with the Roster spot and money of course do it. Is he really going to get 2.5 million?? When (if ever) will arbitration catch up with modern stats?? Like 15 homers in a year where every random pop up hitter get 30 shouldn't be like 15 homers in 1988 or 2014... and WAR... negative WAR is worth like -2.5 million I just mean, is a fake arbitration system which gives Drury too much, doing any favour to Drury, except getting him released?? Like shouldn't it be designed to get guys like Drury the most money possible without getting them released?

I think I agree with you on this one... Drury is an OK hitter, who's power, k and bb rate has been consistent, but had an ungodly babip last year... He'll be 27 next year, I don't see it being terrible if he's the back up infielder.

I like this take... I think Jansen could be a big surprise too... if he hits .250 instead of .200 it probably adds a win or more.... He could explode with a bit of development and if the luck swings the other way. Rowdy could hit for a higher average and would be adequate if he did that and kept the power.... Gurriel would be great if he could do what he did last year over 145 games. There is a world where Pearson/Manahoh contribute 250 dynamite innings (there was a world where 20 year old Osuna went from 12 a ball innings to closer on a championship team). But yeah... the development of the top end talent will swing it from 75 to 85 wins and positive Jay luck, and negative other wild card contender luck would swing it to a 90 win season and a playoff spot,.

He reminds me a bit of Aaron who went up and down like crazy after the concussion.... Jays were last in batting average and I wonder how much of that is luck... if the guys all hitting .200, .215, like Drury, Jansen, Fisher, McKinney were all to regress to .240, they'd all look a bit more acceptable.... Jays hit like .250 homeruns.... could hit more when Vlaimdir learns to get it in the air and a full season of Bichette/Rowdy/Biggio... What does this offense look like with a bit of development and a bit of positive luck??

3. The random chancers -- God knows why players become good and why they don't... Why did Aaron Judge explode?? Why did Gio Urshella, Voit, Mike Ford and other random quadruple a players carry they Yankees as Stanton and Tulo missed 300 games this year?? Why did Alvarez and Alonso become the best rookies and not Vlad?? What if everything goes right?? Pearson Healthy and ready. Vlad the Vlad 2018 projected, Bichette keeps it up and healthy, Biggio keeps it up and hits .250 with his same secondary skills, Jansen has a lucky babip year, Thorton improves a bit. Kay pitches well. Manaoh ready early. Rowdy keeps the power and hit .250, Grichuk rebounds, Gurriel keeps it up and stays healthy. What if all that happens and some other good things?? I think the Jays have just had random underperformance the last couple years. What if it goes the other way??

They'd trade for David Price if they thought they'd get something else worth 90 million.. I think they've been hinting they could take on Salary if they got "paid" with other good players... even the salaried player wasn't worth it.

Bradley is more Pillarish then I thought... I had him as a nice lefty bat with good secondary skills and defense... but his average is so low the final line is Pillar like, and the defense is on a Pillar like Trend... It's probably illogical but I see him as a Devon White type... reality I guess is that he's not as fast as White, and there are a lot of guys who remind you Devon White (or Jose Bautista) at 28.

I think Benentendi's numbers are pretty typical for a 3 WAR guy... it will go up and down a bit. So I don't think 4 is an outlier, but just random variation around 3....

I was thinking Benintendi or Bradley. Can Benintendi play center?? And yeah... Benintendi has a bit of Vladitis... Strangely isn't hitting for power in an era where every other random guy is. His number would be great in 1988 or 2014... but make no sense in 2019.

Maybe it is lol because Stroman was by the best pitcher with 150ish really good innings... and Sammy G. with 90ish mediocre inning beat him?? A mop up reliever and a guy with the worst on base percentage in baseball are the Jays player of the year and 2nd pitcher of the year... The only saving grace is this is partly because young rooks like Biggio and Thornton who are servicable to pretty good don't seem to be allowed to get votes... So Grich and Sammy G. were not really in the top 2 or even top 10 Blue Jays players/Pitchers

Who do you think is a good modern manager? What qualities do you want in a modern manager?? Do you think the manager position even matters, or is he just a guy who listens to the analystics and high performance team??

I know I am a broken record... however god knows what the Blue Jays coache's and players know... we assume they are bright people However on Mike Wilner's end of season poll Randall Grichuk (.280 on base percentage) got player of the year, and Cavan Biggio, a fly ball on base machine with defensive versatility, who led Jays position players in WAR got no votes... so who knows what they think about the fly ball revolution, advanced stats, and even 1980s Bill james type analysis. I can tell you this a) If Vlad Guerrero shows up in Spring Training at 230 pounds and plays defense and runs the bases to the best of his capabilities but doesn't fix his groundball issues he will go from 0.4 to 1.4 WAR. If Vlad Guerrero shows up in Spring Training at 297 pounds and plays defense and runs the bases even worse than this year, but fixes his ground ball issues and hits like his minor league stats predicted he will have 5 WAR. c) If Vlad Guerrero shows up in Spring Training at 230 pounds and plays defense and runs the bases to the best of his capabilities and fixes his ground ball issues and hits like his minor league number predict he will have 7 WAR.

In hindsight - Vlad called up in April, not injured after that, no where close to rookie of the year... ground ball rate and lack of power (relative to league) is an issue - Biggio called up soon after Vlad... more or less repeats his aa trends in the majors (low average hitter, with crazy number of walks and m edium power) and is the Jays best player - Gurriel develops 40 homer power, but can't keep healthy. - Thornton is in the rotation all year, 2 WAR. - Bichette has so/so year in Buffalo but is called up in August anyway to join his buddies, is Jays best player on a per game basis. - Teams will hit 300 homeruns. Power will be crazy. Random guys you never heard of will be hitting 30 homers all over the place. - Stroman, Sanchez traded at deadline, Giles will have an elite year, but Jays get screwed at deadline because of injury concerns (but he ironically finishes the season healthy). - Jansen and Reese McGuire both have more fWAR than Vlad, even though Jansen doesn't hit, and McGuire not called up until August... this is partly because of Vlad's lack of power, but also due to the fact both are dynamite defensively.

None of it matters too much... We all expected this... I'm not sure it's any better or worse than his peer group, Alonso and Alvarez are in the same boat. What is different between Vlad and his peer group is hitting. If he gets down to 240, plays defense to the best of his capabilities, and stops making mistakes on the basepaths it might worth another WAR... in fact the mistake in fangraphs showed us what a defensively neutral Vlad would look like, 1.4 WAR instead of 0.4. If he hits like his minor league numbers projected it's worth 5 WAR or so... So getting in shape is really more so for keeping him on the field, and possibly quickening his bat, helping his balance and mechanics so he can hit like he should...

He's the 20th worse defensive player but the other guys are all basicly his peer group... I feel like some of the baserunning is just due to a weird combination of recklessness and laziness weidly, which may just go under judgement... ie he's not naturally lazy, sometimes he hustles like hell on a single, recklessly tries to stretch into a double and is out... other times he doesn't hustle on a grounder, or what he though was a homer (only once that I remember).

I know... but it's not like I'm complaining that the Jays chose Chad Jenkins instead of Mike Trout. Maybe I'm misremembering, but the Romero pick came out of nowhere didn't it?? Didn't Riccardi override the scouts? Obviously guys miss all the time, I just remember that as being a legendary draft, full of can't miss position players, and even at the 6th pick, it was 100% guaranteed that one of the good position players would be there for the taking... And then they announce Romero!

I s*** you not... this is what happened last time we had a pick like this (6th) 1. Ryan Braun and Zimmerman were picked just ahead. 2. Tulo (good Tulo) was picked just behind. 3. The Red Sox got a really good player (Ellsbury) with their 23rd pick. Jays got Ricky Romero... the only reason he didn't dissapoint in the majors, was that his minor league career was terrible, after teasing in the majors for a couple of years, he then imploded spectacularly kind of at the moment Jays wanted to contend.

Well Jays clinched 5th last night, so now the best player in the draft will be going 6th... And that player will have a solid but not spectacular minor league career, while our pick will hit .350 in the minors, but oddly dissapoint in the majors... Plus who-ever the Yankees pick at 29 will be the 3rd best player in the draft and way out perform our guy... That's what it's like to be a Jays fan!

What do you propose doing with Grichuk and Gurriel?? It seems there is only 1 outfield spot, and it would be replacing Hernandez/Fisher. However Hernandez/Fisher platoon is like the definition of what a moneyball team might try... they are at a low point... Why not just go with Grichuk, Gurriel, Fisher/Hernandez ?? What player do you propose replacing Fisher/Hernandez with and how much of a WAR increase will they be over Fisher/Hernandez??

Here is what I'd like to see next year... 1. March Vladimir shows up at legit 240 pounds. (not a fake 240 pounds where he's actually 260). 2. Vladimir has a healthy spring training. 3. Late March - Vladimir hit's a titanic pop up first at bat... at least it's not a ground ball. 4. Late March - Vladimir hit's 437 foot home run into center field flight deck with exit velocity of 115 note this doesn't prove anything yet... we know he can do this once and a while 5. Early April - Vladimir hit's 369 foot home run down left field line with exit velocity of 95 mph this is a very important mile stone... he doesn't hit many home runs like this... and he needs them to go along with 115 mph 450ers 6. Early April - Vladimir hit's 380 foot home run just over left center field fence with exit velocity of 97 mph another important mile stone. Showing he can regurlarly hit home runs with out getting all of it. 7. Mid April - Vladimir hit-s 420 foot home run into left field second deck, 107 mph exit velocity actually important too... belive it or not he's never hit a homerun in the left field second deck at rogers centered... pulling fly balls... good stuff. 8. Late April - Vladimir hit's 384 foot home run to right field (opposite field) 94 mph exit velocity. This would be outstanding. As far as I know he's never hit an oppo homer... Note guys like Teoscar Hernandez last night, who would hit 30 in a full season, need to loft some oppos to get there. That's what I want to see next April!

I guess if you are looking for good news, the defense thing was fake news apparently, but I did take a look at Juan Soto's rookie season, and his batted profile was actually similar to Vlad's this year, and he improved it a lot in his second year. I think Vlad's hr/fly ball is only 12% which is pretty low, I think. I distinctly remember 5 balls missing by less than a foot, and becoming 2 outs, and 3 singles. 2 of the singles weren't his fault... they were hit at about 118 mph off the left field wall... the third was off the center field wall, and it was his fault... he just joggged thinking it was gone. hmmm.. he did get a bonus homerun off some guys glove in Chicago... so he had a bit of luck with one of his flyballs. Anyway I think if his hr/fly ball normalizes he gets better even if nothing else changes. Hopefully everything else trends in the right direction though.

It's pretty unbelievable when you look at the stats... Every single player, that played significant time this year, has a better home rate then Vlad. Sogard does, Jansen does, McKinney does, Fisher does, Galvis does, Vlad is 15th on the team in home runs per plate appearnce. 15th!