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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    That's why I roll my eyes at a couple of packages that were suggested this trade deadline that involved Orelvis Martinez. Maybe Tatis was a bit more of a surprise, I can't remember, but seems pretty stupid to trade any of these top 5 international guys at 17.
  2. Olerud363
    I think what the Rays are doing is great. They are trying to break free of artificial constructs and the only thing that should stop them is whether or not their strategies work or not. not whether they are annoying fans. I'm still not sure if it will all work long term. History isn't always stupid, so it may have already optimized the use of starters and relievers, but good for the Rays to push the envelope. They should stop when they stop winning.
  3. Olerud363
    I demand the Jays stop using Merryweather and Hatch the way they are. Either make them lights out 1 inning late inning relievers or 6 inning starters for the good of baseball.
  4. Olerud363
    2000 Yankees won 3rd World Series in a row with an 87 win team Next year they didn't quite win World Series but cemented their legacy by preventing Mariners from breaking their 1998 114+11 = 125 total wins.
  5. Olerud363
    That's why it's not going to happen with Degrom, or Kershaw. It's going to happen with a Pearson or Merryweather type playing for the Rays or As. Someone who has had a little bit of failure and will be on board with a strategy that can keep them healthy and more effective. Maybe stats like WPA will become more important than wins. Some metric that accounts for leverage and opposition quality. Guy goes 10-4 1.5 with 200 ks in 150 innings he'll still get paid, teams will use advanced measure that include leverage You may not like this, but that's money-ball. If the strategy makes a team win why wouldn't they use it?? I guess you could argue that if the fans get pissed their favourite player isn't getting 700 PAs and the line up is different everyday, and their favourite pitcher is pulled early they will get pissed off and not buy tickets. But will they if the team is winning? Just saying these strategies won't stop because you guys don't like them... they will stop if they are useless... like if 150 optimized innings isn't worth it.
  6. Olerud363
    These trends are going to continue. Rays had Blake Snell win a Cy Young with 180 innings pitched a couple of years ago... I think that trend will get even more dramatic. It might even happen here with guys like Pearson and Merryweather. Some smart team is going to start taking out the starter if the team has big lead in the third, or the starter has a high stress inning early. They are going to use bulk guys like Yamaguchi more to eat up useless innings. Most of it's going to be optimized with a computer using win probability and leverage. So you are going to see the guys like Pearson and Merryweather with 150 innings, optimized by computer to get them highest leverage, and keep them healthy and effective. Then Yamuguchi and Roark also with 150 but optimized for the lowest leverage. Same thing with position players. Lineups and playing time super optimized by data and matchups.
  7. Olerud363
    Interesting. Vlad also got a 4 million bonus. Kirk $7500 https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-alejandro-kirk-unique-catching-prospect-breaks-mould/ Holy crap. I mean on the other hand Biggio is in same situation as Vlad and seems to be the definition of hard work... and if Biggio failed it wouldn't even really be a huge black mark. It's like he can't hit fastball, Kieth Law hates him, he's suppose to fail, so when he fails he just goes on to coaching, and everyone says how great it is that Biggio worked hard as hell to hit .200 without being able to hit a fastball and he coaches or something. Biggio fails - nothing. Kieth law gets a medal. Biggio gets a medal for trying hard. Biggio coaches or something. Vladdy fails - nothing financially but goes down as biggest bust of all time. Kirk fails - loses millions, changes his life completely.
  8. Olerud363
    That's the worse thing about Corona ball. 60 games isn't enough need to see these guys over 160.
  9. Olerud363
    Still seems fatness and obesity lead to 60% ground ball rate. Kirk seemed to have the "good" Vladdy night, when the grounder sneaks through, 3 grounders, maybe one of them you could say was a line drive, I don't know. Not a real line drive. Pretty much a Vladdy night grounding out (once at 107) and sneaking one through. I guess he did hit a 420 foot foul fly ball... but I've seen Vladdy do that too. Even against Chapman once. Rooting for them, but don't believe in the fat boys yet.
  10. Olerud363
    How often to guys single off the wall?? I assume the big guys do it a 2-5 times a year but is Vladdy's rate historical?? I want to say he at least 5 last year and 3 this year, but I don't know for sure.
  11. Olerud363
    He probably thought he was out (which he would of been if it was 1 foot shorter) or it was a homer (which it would of been if it was 1 foot farther) Can you really blame him for not being able to sense he hit the ball 356 feet, instead of 358 or 354??
  12. Olerud363
    It deserves a thread. He is our last hope. Not sure the Blue Jays have ever had a player with as high a minor league on base percentage come up. His minor league on base percentage is higher than Vladdy's. And I don't know what he hit against other blue jays in interquad. Let's just pretend it was .350 .525 .800 He is the next Edgar Martinez. Not hyping just being realistic.
  13. Olerud363
    I heard on another channel that Vladdy has another fat little friend coming to join the team. I know sometimes fat people need to see a person that looks like them to believe they can do it to, so hopefully they inspire each other. At our local YMCA triathlon a 300 pound guy finished and it inspired a bunch of others for the next year. And don't tell me Rowdy is fat too, he's just the 6'5" guy who has wide shoulders, Vladdy and Kirk are true brothers. Hope they inspire each other.
  14. Olerud363
    Not sure about Giles, but Bo is not in the lineup. Kind of thought he would be, thought he did a couple of rehab games this week.
  15. Olerud363
    October 5th 2021, everyone on the board should try to plan to be available for discussion, it won't be until that day we have enough info to decide who needs to be sent to Indy ball, and who can stay up with the big club.
  16. Olerud363
    Covid ball low sample size is just a recipe for deception. Even the 60 games isn't enough, especially since it is like 30 games if you get an injury. Like Randall Grichuk has completely regressed to 2018 Randall Grichuk, which is fine, that's a winning piece if he isn't one of the top 4 pieces. Hernandez (down), Vladdy (up), Jansen (up), would all normalize a bit over 160... I think it is pretty possible Vlad will look like the worst failure of all time if he slumps the next 2 weeks (.220 .300 .390 or something), could look fine if he heats up (.270, .340 .470). Not a huge deal either way, but it will be in the books, and hopefully the team makes sure he gets his head right, and is ready for 600 outstanding plate appearances next year. When they've all had a full year we can have some opinions.
  17. Olerud363
    One of the great things about baseball is all the young franchise changing players that are thriving in their early 20s. So amazing to hear what some franchises get to experience. https://www.mlb.com/news/young-mvp-award-contenders-for-2020 It is such a joy for these fanbases to have young legends to follow, there is nothing like it. In 2020 the game is healthy and thriving, with fun young players for people to follow and cheer for. A top prospect bust is so devestating for fans. Good to see the other top prospects are instant Mantle, and the pain we feel with Vlad happens to no one else
  18. Olerud363
    I am actually against trading him. I have no doubt he will put up David Ortiz numbers for the Red Sox, and kind of still assume he will figure it out here. Today's ranting was just triggered because I stopped looking at his stat line for a week. 1 week ago check bbref Vladdy - .265 .340 .460 - hmmmm... OK. Still get that he is only 21. really not bad for a 21 year old, and could look good with a hot finish. I'll stop checking his stats every at bat. today - bbref Vladdy - .245 .325 .420 - WHAT THE f*** DID YOU DO THIS WEEK!! I look away for a second and the greatest hitting prospect ever is putting up BIlly Mckinney stats. Got a little triggerred by that.
  19. Olerud363
    And just for the record. I love Vladdy, I loved having the greatest prospect ever, I was more excited about him then any prospect ever and my comments are just my way of expressing my profound confusion at how the greatest hitting prospect ever hit's like Billy Mckinney. I guess it's because he is only 21 and very, very soon he will leave Billy Mckinney in the rear view mirror and be hitting .300 .400 .550... right?? I think. I hope.
  20. Olerud363
    I brought up Domingo Martinez in another thread. He is the guy who didn't even get a chance at a career because Cito (great manager, everyone loves him) had to play a 35 year old .200 hitting Tabby. Domingo Martinez 1st 2 years - 0.3 WAR in 22 at bats. Old Pat Tabler 2 year WAR - -1.2 (that is negative 1.2) Vladdy 2 year WAR - 0.4 So at least Vladdy is above replacement for his career still and ahead of old Pat Tabler, though there is a chance Domingo Martinez' first 2 year WAR, will be ahead of Vladdy Jrs 1st two year WAR, if Vladdy continues slumping over the next 2 weeks.
  21. Olerud363
    So I laid off this thread for a bit. Gave Vladdy some room. The fat-ass didn't do his part though... went to bbref to check some unrelated stats and tried to avoid looking at Vlad's stat line but I saw it out of the corner of my eye. Our fat little failure is now at like .245 .320 .420. Solid step back from last year. Growing backwards and nicely at replacement level. uuhhhhgggggg.... I know it is annoying to have this thread bumped, but only Vlad can end this thread by starting to perform above replacement. He has like 2 weeks to get hot and at least have something positive to go into 2021 with... there is a chance his 2020 statline will look awful, a bad 2 weeks and he's going to be stuck going into 2021 looking like Billy Mckinney, even if he's only 21 it sucks that the greatest prospect ever could look like Billy McKinney without the ability to play outfield defence.
  22. Olerud363
    As much as I go on and on about the 90s in half my posts, as a fan I really look to the future. There is nothing I enjoy more than seeing young players surprise me. This weird season has had some great moments from Teoscar, Rowdy, Gurriel, Bo, Biggio, Merryweather, Romano, Hatch.... nice to see. Of course it is small sample size. I won't really believe in Charlie and the organization until I see a positive 162 game season, development, reasonable health, players meeting and exceeding expectations from April to October. I mean this weird little season could still go off the rails, or be spectacular, it's so little that random positive or negative s*** the next two weeks will shape it.
  23. Olerud363
    Bringing it back to Charlie. Charlie seems to do a pretty good job allocating playing time to the young guys. And it seems to me the approach at the plate has been very good this year. And I think Charlie gets some credit for that as it's his job to help hire and direct the coaching staff. Real test will be a 160 game season. Can he develop a competitive team with young players and run the pitching staff with 2020s out of the box strategies over 160 games? Or is the current situation just a fluke 40 game stretch? Can he gain 3 or 4 wins with development and usage patterns to compensate for the 0.25 wins he loses with the bunting?
  24. Olerud363
    Yes 92 and 93 were fun. 94-97 though... information age starting, message boards beginning, NASDAQ flying, baseball offense at all time high (with some help of course), analytics gaining steam based on two early Bill James rules, 1. Get players under 27, 2. Get the boys on base. Cito Gaston - Get rid of these kids and on base cloggers, get me some 30 year olds with a sub .300 on base percentage. Old Joe Carter with a .275 on base percentage will be our leader, get him some comrades. Gord Ash - Yes sir, right away sir
  25. Olerud363
    Point taken. Probably not the wisest thing to keep arguing with Grant about things that were argued about literally two decades ago (well 11-12 years ago which would bring us back 2 decades) on the old board.
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