I dont understand how a pitcher can be unlucky by giving up home runs. Unless you're pitching at an extreme hitters park and the ball keeps barely squeaking out, a home run means a hitter squared up your mistake. The whole xFIP philosophy where every pitcher should give up a home run 10.5% of every fly ball can be pretty flawed. Just look at Estrada. Stroman has been getting hit harder than any other Starter in the league. The most balls given up that come off the bat at 100+ MPH isn't even close. Naturally he's gonna give up more home runs because of that. I don't understand how that makes him unlucky.