Is it even still the same rules for the Japanese dudes as all the rest of the international FAs? Because to me it doesn't make sense, if the team has to give up a posting fee why should they also get penalized on the contract amount signed?
I think he'd make more by waiting the extra couple years. He'd be able to negotiate with the whole league. He then probably signs a contract which has a clause in that prevents the team signing him to offer arbitration.