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John_Havok

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Everything posted by John_Havok

  1. John_Havok
    Theyd still need Rodon to come back to really move that needle back towards the top. I still still them as a distant 7th at best.
  2. John_Havok
    Yes, this makes sense from a dollars perspective, but the length of these is essentially just being used to get the AAV lower for luxury tax purposes. Especially in Correa's case.
  3. John_Havok
    Isn’t this exactly like the contract that was rumoured about Judge from the Padres they thought would get investigated for being in bad faith to keep the AAV low? It’s under 27 million per year which doesn’t make a lot of sense. He should be well into then 30+ million aav
  4. John_Havok
    Youre not wrong. They have one of the highest valued franchises in the game, an amazing local fanbase, excellent revenues every single year. They really have no excuse not to be pushing close to a 200 million dollar payroll every year.
  5. John_Havok
    Im not sure i'd go that far yet.
  6. John_Havok
    Im on the negative side of that fence. They had the worst defense in the game last season, a very average offense that doesnt really project to be much better unless a lot of guys have some great bounceback seasons. Haniger might be okay, but doesnt move the needle that much unless he also turns back the clock and stays healthy. Manaea and Stripling dont really replace what Rodon gave them though their staff will probably be fine given the pitcher's park they play in every year. So yeah, its been a quiet offseason that COULD prove to be adequate to above average, but they've not really done anything to move the needle against the Dodgers and Padres. They're staring at 3rd place again and hoping to sneak into the wildcard. Adding Correa would move it into the nice offseason category. Teams clearly above them in the NL, Dodgers, Padres, Cardinals, Braves, Mets, Phillies. they're still very much on the outside of the playoffs looking in IMO.
  7. John_Havok
    Of course there are nicer places away from the stadium. Chernobyl had nicer places 10 minutes after the meltdown.
  8. John_Havok
    Insert jokes about "healthy Wood" here.
  9. John_Havok
    I dont understand why any free agent would want to subject themselves or their families to living in Baltimore.
  10. John_Havok
    Its like San Francisco's signature signing strategy these days is sign a guy for a multiyear deal, but let him walk after 1 if he does very well.
  11. John_Havok
    That seems really..... light
  12. John_Havok
    Nice pickup. Really solid rotation assuming Manoah continues his current path, Gausman gets the luck on his side this season and even a half assed return to Berrios normal and 1-4 is beautiful. Too much to hope for Kikuchi to actually be effective, but a guy can dream
  13. John_Havok
    Yeah. It's a very expectedly blah read. Projected to be really good, but probably not good enough. Couple highlights: "Toronto has a billion one-WAR infielders in the minors, like they obtained a slightly blemished mold from the Joey Wendle factory." "If the Yankees are really in on Carlos Rodón, the Blue Jays should be willing to beat nearly any non-crazy offer they make" "Among pitchers with 100 projected innings who are likely to be on a major league roster, Manoah is the third-largest ZiPS/Steamer ERA disagreement among the teams I’ve run (3.43/4.11). Incidentally, the others are Patrick Corbin (5.11/4.38) and Stephen Strasburg (3.74/4.50). In fifth place, going in the other direction, is Yusei Kikuchi (4.49/3.93)."
  14. John_Havok
    Physicals usually take a few days to set up and get completed. Any signing that gets announced on whatever day usually doesn’t get confirmed until 2-3 days later. That said, the guy just had his hip surgery in August with a 6-7 month recovery time. It’s entirely possible they see his medicals and lose confidence.
  15. John_Havok
    Not every team. Any team that is also over the CBT in 2023 won’t get anything.
  16. John_Havok
    Here’s all the pre-arb players who earned more than 6 figure bonuses under the new CBA: Dylan Cease, White Sox: $2,457,426 Yordan Alvarez, Astros: $2,381,143 Alek Manoah, Blue Jays: $2,191,023 Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks: $1,670,875 Julio Rodríguez, Mariners: $1,550,850 Michael Harris II, Braves: $1,361,435 Emmanuel Clase, Guardians: $1,354,962 Andrés Giménez, Guardians: $1,308,805 Adley Rutschman, Orioles: $1,177,555 Kyle Tucker, Astros: $1,146,555 Spencer Strider, Braves: $1,077,294 Bichette and Kirk also took home 500k each
  17. John_Havok
    Yes.
  18. John_Havok
    The only thing I could find on any real changes in Helsey from last years to 2022 is his extension. The last seasons he was around 6.4 to 6.5 feet of extension on his fastball, in 2022 it was 6.7 feet. The slider also saw a similar increase in extension from 6.4 to 6.6 feet. He also threw his fastball harder on average. Couple the real increase in velo along with a perceived increase in velo from the extension increase and…there ya go. He was also healthy for the first time.
  19. John_Havok
    If we consider this the bookend of the Teo trade... Teoscar Hernandez (15M) gone Kiermeier (12M) + Possible back end pen for 1.5M and a prospect in. Defense = better, pen = better, offense=worse. Are the Jays overall better, worse... or is this a push?
  20. John_Havok
    Completely, the last few seasons are pretty much always a write off, and the team hopes they got enough value in the good years to outweigh it. Votto's has been pretty good. 8 really good years, then last year a pretty big step back. But again, position player. A pitcher could provide absolutely nothing with one injury
  21. John_Havok
    I dunno, i just dont think there are any teams out there willing to hand out Strasburg or David Price money anymore when a guy is 30 years old. They've all seen how that movie ends. I could see a 5 years plus option years, but not 7 guaranteed
  22. John_Havok
    Pitchers though... its far less of a risk on a position player.
  23. John_Havok
    Dude and his agent are certifiably nuts if they think any team is giving him a fully guaranteed 7 year deal. Absolutely crazy He should be in the 5yr/120 range though.
  24. John_Havok
    Just a quick comparison of each players age 24-30 seasons: Thomas 4561 PAs , 247 HRs .321/.441/.592/1.033 OPS+ 173 Judge 3161 PAs, 220 HRs, .284/.394/.583/.977 OPS+ 163 Judge is close, who knows what might have been without a COVID season. Their real differences are in K rate. Judge has K'd at 29%, Thomas only K'd at 11% walk rates are 14.9 for Judge and was 17.7 for Thomas.
  25. John_Havok
    I'd be willing to bet Frank Thomas was pretty close to that weight at that age when he was playing. I know his listed weight never went past 240, but.... yeah I could see him near 275 Frank Thomas is about the best case scenario for Judge through his 30's most likely, which would be pretty well worth the contract. 4 of his 10 seasons where injury riddled, the other 6 were full time. 262 Hrs .276/.389/.515 triple slash.
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