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John_Havok

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Everything posted by John_Havok

  1. John_Havok
    i dunno, it's in the past so .. pointing fingers is just stupid at this point. It happened. it sucks. get over it. Spring Training starts in 81 days, 10 hours, and 28 minutes.
  2. John_Havok
    Low swing speed but high EV = the new market inefficiency
  3. John_Havok
    The is never a singular play in any baseball game that says "that is why we lost". That's both the beauty and ugly truth of baseball.
  4. John_Havok
    Probably. It's just when the player's choose to swing slowly could certainly infiltrate the numbers when using the top 90% of swings. They also include all swings above 60mph where EV results in 90+ mph. Since Bo's avg exit velo is 91mph, alot of those 60-74.95 mph swings are going to be included in his bat speed calcs. in 2025 he managed 72nd percentile EV (91mph) with 12th percentile bat speed. Looking at a few other jays from 2025 with low tier bat speed (Clement, Lukes, IKF, Gimenez) the relationships make more sense. IKF - 1st percentile EV, 2nd percentile bat speed (seriously... this guy should not be playing) Clement - 8th percentile EV, 5th percentile bat speed Lukes - 19th percentile EV, 6th percentile bat speed. Gimenez - 8th percentile EV, 13th percentile bat speed. Conclusion: Bo is a freak
  5. John_Havok
    I wonder this too, like for sprint speed, they only measure it when the player is actively trying to run as fast as they can. If they averaged in all the slow trots to first on groundouts to 2b... the numbers would be silly.
  6. John_Havok
    Seems both the Jays and Dodgers made offers in the same neighborhood, he just chose to stay in Atlanta.
  7. John_Havok
    It's one of those spectrums I think... like with EV, you might see a guy's average EV creep up without a corresponding increase in max EV, so you'd probably question what the average EV increase means overall. Avg bat speed... I kinda see it the same way. We know Bo can get the bat around in a hurry if he wants/needs to based on seeing those 80+ mph swings. He just doesn't utilize it very often.
  8. John_Havok
    Lots of fault to go around, but no, it was THIS ONE GUY'S FAULT. true insight
  9. John_Havok
    Prospects break your heart, this is why using them as capital is usually the smart play when you have the chance. These franchises that rely on getting 3-5 extra picks every year and run a team with youth really can't get married to their prospects. They have to supplement when they can, and if they aren't willing to do that with money, they have to do it via trade. Milwaukee is probably the only success story with this at present (rays in the past but they're sliding) and they might actually be trading their front line pitchers before the deadline even if they're in contention. These teams should be sinking every dollar they can spare into player development (the brewers clearly did) to ensure they get the most out of all their handout draft picks in the minors and trade some for bonafide big leaguers whenever they need to. Hoarding them all just doesn't pan out 9 times out of 10.
  10. John_Havok
    Stieb's and Halladay's are not 1 in 20 vs a Pearson or Manoah. Closer to 1 in 100 or even higher
  11. John_Havok
    This is one of the prevailing theories that goes alongside the increased velo/spin focus of arms across the sport. Chances are there is no single reason, but rather it being multi-factorial.
  12. John_Havok
    Oh for sure, I don't begrudge any kid whose parent has the means to provide the environment to grow. It's just... that's the textbook definition of privilege, he didn't overcome privilege. The way the terminology is presented is laughable.
  13. John_Havok
    Well it was his injuries that kept him from performing and making it not overly cost-effective to want to pay him his arbitration projection for a guaranteed spot on the roster when they need space for protecting rule-5 guys. It's unfortunate, Sandlin is one of those arms that could fully break out at any time. Wouldn't surprise me in the least to see him as a back-end option somewhere in the near future.
  14. John_Havok
    What a weird statement.... "overcoming privilege to achieve success"
  15. John_Havok
    That's a BP fastball right down the middle for "your mom" jokes
  16. John_Havok
    Bottom of the lineup would also be neutralized rather easily from the 6th inning onwards.
  17. John_Havok
    He should choose free agency... but then again, Bieber should have too. Theres a non-zero chance he decides to stay, but I dont expect him to.
  18. John_Havok
    It's entirely possible they are. Regressing his HR rate to even well above average(in a bad way) and hes very effective. Theres no reason to expect that HR rate to carry over to 2026 jast because it happened in 2025.
  19. John_Havok
    I dont think they'd be trading varsho, but if they dont extend him, I could see them trading for plan B like they did for Gimenez a year prior to Bo's free agency. Getting ahead of that potential scenario where Bo walks and you already have a capable SS in house paid off big time with his injury... and will lessen he blow if he does leave to a blockbuster offer. They could do the same thing with CF, just not sure who they would be targeting.
  20. John_Havok
    I know you know.... I just reply to your statement because it was the last one dealing with that topic
  21. John_Havok
    Yes, but he'd probably sign a 4/40 deal in a heartbeat. Lots of guys decline their 1 year deals of x amount and end up signing multi-year deals for a lower AAV. They value the longer term security more.
  22. John_Havok
    Why would it change your thoughts on being libertarian? Just because it's now impacting a sport that you enjoy rather than other issues that don't come up in your day-to-day?
  23. John_Havok
    How many people post under this account? Your sentence structure, verbiage and logical train of thought change from post to post in a very noticeable way
  24. John_Havok
    All long term deals turn into albatross deals down the road. Every single one. You know that going in. Yiu sign them to extra years to keep the AAV down earlier on
  25. John_Havok
    This is my train of thought also. Adding a 4/5 is easy, they fall off trees in the offseason and at the deadline. Add at the top, push other down and have guys at AAA to fill in the short-term injury gaps. The Jays are really close to having that type of situation as a reality. Not quite yet though
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