John_Havok

May 30 Vladdy - 1 Point Bichette - 1 Point Chapman - 2 Points Varsho - 2 Points Springer - 2 Points Belt - 3 Points - JaysAllMighty Kirk - 4 Points - Dylan Biggio - 5 Points - JohnHavok Merrifield - 5 Points Off the bench: 10 Points

Looks then Like Ryu is slightly ahead of Green in his comeback. maybe a week or so as he was throwing bullpens last week. Not like a week is a massive difference at the end of the day but ... i'm actually looking forward to skinny Ryu.

Houser can be gotten too. Low whiff rate, tends to hang his breaking stuff and changeups in hittable places if people can be ready for it. Relies mainly on sinkers to RHB, then 4 seam and slider with the occastional curve. Has not thrown a changeup to RHB yet this season. Against lefties he throws everything, but switches the primary fastball to his 4 seamer, then its sinker and changeup. occasional slider, less occasional curve. 60% GB rate and career .271 wOBA against RHB 47% GB rate and career .356 wOBA against LHB

12.2 innings, he threw 3.2 there last year. Obviously a much larger sample But yes, someone is going to have to replace Bass, he's about to be hung by the yard-arm.

True enough, but usually those guys stick around because they've already had careers up to that point where more power was present, and you still hope they might recover some of it - and chances are theyre still under the end of of their long term contract. A guy starting out like that wouldn't get the time of day except as a stop/gap

Balanced schedule - it could very well happen. Good teams get to beat up on more mediocre and bad teams all season long.

Wouldnt say suck, just say that his usefulness is limited. Even unlocking a portion of additional power would make him pretty playable.

Olerud career ISO was .170 - just thinking out loud, would him having an ISO at .127 instead be all that valuable? Iguess not terrible - his age 35 year was right around that level of ISO @ .121 - he put up 2 fWAR, though that also includes Olerud's Defense at 1B which was always top shelf.

it's also not apples to apples because they offered Wander that extension when he had less than 1 year of service time. There is no way in hell Bo would have signed anything like that IMO

Catalanotto had more power. I'm not sure there's truly much to like here on Horwitz, the only time he's shown any pop is when he played in NH where the RF fence is like 300 feet away. THis is a guy who'd probably top out at 5HR over a full season in the majors - unless of course he played for the Yankees where he'd probably hit 30 This true comp on Horwitz is guy is John Olerud lite lite lite lite and more lite.

I have that same problem, I’m out west so for me it’s 5pm start…can catch the first 1-1.5 innings before I leave at 5:30, drive home I miss an inning, then watch till about the 4th before going to the gym, by the time I get home it’s always 9th inning or over.

Last year didn’t have the AL east teams crushing every other division like paper. Right now WC 3 has a win percentage of .585. Would be either 94 or 95 wins. It could end up lower, but that would require Texas to crash hard while seeing nearly no improvement from any other team currently below them. One probably doesn’t happen without the other And yes, if I had to pick a team to fall out of the race, it would be Texas.

Noda with no power though. That decreases his overall value by a fair margin given his lack of defensive usefulness.

Pitch clock violation for too long of an ovation? No ump would be that stupid would they?

No doubt. the Bautista “ no home town discount” decision to let him walk was the best decision made in the past 10 seasons probably regarding letting a guy walk. Thing is…Bo is probably the better bet to be great and remain great-ish over a long term deal. Vlad isn’t. Vlad definitely has more marketing presence and sway in Toronto and across Canada vs Bo for reasons that really don’t matter, but rightly or wrongly could certainly be taken into account by a front office on deciding who to sign. It be monumentally stupid to do that instead of going after the guy who’s going more likely to help your team win, but…FOs do have to take that into account at least somewhat in their decision making process.

Who would you feel more confortable hitching your wagon to if you had to pick one? and why?

It's not because they were minor league parks - it's because he knew how to hit fly balls to his pull side regularly back then. It could be as simple as Vlad being "over-prepared" by the analytics and is suffering from analysis paralysis. Look at his ST games... he just went out there and was "see ball-hit ball" oriented without worrying about the scouting reports of the pitcher he was facing or what their tendencies were. Maybe his brain just isnt wired for to take in all that info and transfer it into a coherent plan at the plate. THat kind of approach probably doesnt work for everyone, though it probably works wonders for certain guys. His injuries probably have a bit to do with it too, but maybe once healthy the hitting coach and strategist just need to take a step back from Vlad and just let him grip it and rip it for a while.

I think we've seen Bo's floor and Vlad'd floor. Bo's is better. We're seeing Bo's ceiling right now likely, though there is at least a chance his D improves a bit over the next few seasons. Bo has that massive inner drive to be better. Vlad had that for a while, but I think he lost it a bit and needs to get it back.

Probably need 3rd in the division for a playoff spot, though 4th could even get in if the AL West shits the bed. Looks like Texas and Houston gonna make it though. I'd bet the playoffs are going to be 3 from the East, the s***** Central winner, and 2 from the West. Probably going to need 95 wins to be a WC team I think

That average does not make my dick move.

Would sure go a long way to help the pen that's for sure. Even if Bowden can be a starter that's better than Manoah right now that would be amazing.

If he's running elite EVs, the babip can almost be justified, but I suspect that's not the case given his lack of power. Anyone know where a guy can get minor league EV numbers in a leaderboard fashion rather than clicking on individual games at baseballsavant ?

It's a complicated question because if you think about absolute talent ceiling, Vlad wins. If he pulled his head out of his ass he SHOULD be able to hit like 2021 Vlad did fairly consistently. That's a guy I want for the next 10 years. But in real world ceiling...Bo wins. Bo has a higher ceiling but that's largely due to the position he plays. With even modest improvement on defense... he's a 7 fWAR+ guy at his peak. 150 wrc+ bat with even average SS defense is money in the bank. I dont think he'll ever be elite D, but maybe even slightly above average is well within the realm of possibility. The downside of Vlad... well... we're seeing it. Tremendously skilled bat to ball tendencies have him swinging at garbage he should swing at and prevents his power from playing up to where it should. 2-3 fWAR floor though simply because when he does contact the ball, the EVs are savage. Usefull player, but not a guy you sign to a 10 year deal hoping you get more ceiling and less floor. Bo's downside... probably 3.5-5 fWAR. His bat is prone to going into streaks where the babip gods torment him and he'll probably never walk alot. But because of his hit tool and power his offensive floor is right around 120 wRC+. That's probably even low given that his worst season output is the COVID shortened 2020 when he put up... 120. any full season has been 122 and 129. He has a higher floor and a higher chance of playing near his ceiling IMO. Vlads ceiling right now is more of a dream than a reality. Bo's ceiling is actually kind of in view.

Stroman just threw a CG 1-hit shutout against the Rays. f*** the Rays.

Now it's the walk rates going through the roof. HR rates coming down