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John_Havok

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Everything posted by John_Havok

  1. John_Havok
    dang, all i get when googling my name is some guy who does black light art with naked women. Actually, that's not bad.
  2. John_Havok
    when calculating xBA, do you think it's possible to start incorporating spray angle into it's formulation?
  3. John_Havok
    Possible, but... one thing the recent changes in MILB have done with the reduction in teams and levels... college baseball has never had more talent in it. It is at least somehwat plausible that the talent coming out of d1 these days is much better than 5 years ago.
  4. John_Havok
    Says alot about how the indutry sees the top 3 picks of this draft when they immediately get slotted into top 4, 5 and 6 spots in the entire minor league system
  5. John_Havok
    Naw, just type out the novella. I have further stuff on 1b too, just want you to cover yours in case mine is a lot of duplication
  6. John_Havok
    defense thread connor, if he has time im sure we could get into an offense thread also
  7. John_Havok
    If you had to self-critique OAA in any way, what improvements would you shoot for?
  8. John_Havok
    How much, if at all, is OAA influenced by the number of opportunities a player gets ?
  9. John_Havok
    Yeah, Adams is a guy thats been really wild from the getgo, and i can forsee the argument stating Aroldis is just as bad right now... which is true, but Aroldis is also coming off virtually his whole career of being utterly dominant with that same K rate and BB rate under 4 ... it's only recent seasons he's bean near 6 BB/9 so he's definitely going to be getting more rope than a guy who comes up for 5 innings strikes out 10 but also walks 8.
  10. John_Havok
    Take those same names and show their career BB/9, that should answer the question.
  11. John_Havok
    My question about OAA, i know it takes player positioning into account, batted ball data, runner speed, and a few other things for infielders. My question is, for a 1b who is positioned at a certain spot, RH glove, and a ball goes down the line just far enough to get past him... does OAA compare him strictly to other batted ball events where the 1b that started in relatively the same spot and relatively the same batted ball velocity and batted ball location to determine whether or not another 1b would have made the play? Or is it just a simpler... the guy has X amount of time to get to the ball and then X amount of time to convert it to the out and just determines whether or not that is possible with varying degrees of difficulty?
  12. John_Havok
    Couldn’t pick a Jay, no bench option….f*** Texas…..Ohtani wasn’t worth picking pointswise, and Hays can suck a dick. That left two Rays. 50/50 ….
  13. John_Havok
    The real TomTango….or what might be the best trolling attempt in recent memory. Either way I’m down for the show.
  14. John_Havok
    No +1 for the first HR of the game? Asking for a friend…
  15. John_Havok
    Not at all, just that the Jays might have a "Weak system" in the eyes of prospect ranking sites, but teams with assets make deals based on who they like, not who someone else likes. We've seen plenty of deals as evidence in the past few seasons where people think teams took a weaker deal vs other offers. Strenth of system at trade deadline time is all in the eyes of the team with the asset being dangled. Teams don't generally engage in bidding wars for trades the way people think
  16. John_Havok
    I think there's a misconception about how trades work in general. It's not like GMs are all on the phone at the same time trying to one-up each other for trade candidates. Each GM will essentially have an idea of their top offers, start with something lower than that, offer that, and if declined, they may circle back later if the player is still available and offer something slightly higher if they really want the player. But they'll always have an idea of their absolute top offer and not go beyond that even if it's demanded by the other team. Unless of course that GM is AJ Preller.
  17. John_Havok
    Apparently Robert Jr tweaked his calf in the HR derby, will not play in the AS game and is listed as day-to-day
  18. John_Havok
  19. John_Havok
    OAA, FRAA, DRS, UZR, my eyes. I typically find OAA to be the best single snapshot as it's based on statcast data and takes positioning, batted ball data, runner speed and other things into account.
  20. John_Havok
    No, when looking at defense I look at numerous things, but this year they all agree that Vlad has definitely not been good this year. What the metrics cant really tell you is why. It's not like he's suddenly terrible at gloving balls, we can see he does just fine at picking balls in the dirt at 1b. The only thing I think might be different this year is how they have him positioned when there's a runner on 1st. I honestly cant remember if they had him play the same way last season or not. That, taken with perhaps an abnormally large number of balls hit in the areas his new positioning fails to cover could be the reason his numbers are low.
  21. John_Havok
    Yes, because of those two types of balls. OAA splits up where a guy makes his plays and misses his plays. Glove side he's at 0 outs above or below average. -4 on balls in, -6 on balls to his right, -1 on balls behind him.
  22. John_Havok
    Generally speaking, OAA will tell you why he sucks at UZR by telling you which plays they suck at. In Vlads case it's balls he has to charge and balls to his right. -4 and -6 OAA respectively. It's not perfect correlation, but it's a good place to start. The question about OAA, is whether or not the balls he is missing is because of where he is being positioned or just because he misses them.
  23. John_Havok
    Because he really sucks at balls being hit to his non glove side this season and on ones he's had to charge in on. Glove side he's about average.
  24. John_Havok
    Yeah and you stumbled upon the key of Whitfield though, despite being unimpressive from the EV, barrell rate .. etc etc thing. Defensive usefullness, and one thing you didn't mention, speed/baserunning. A guy like Merrifield can survive with unimpressive batted ball numbers because hes still a useful player around the diamond. Guys like him that profile as 1B/DH .... not so useful except as short-term injury fill ins, or on teams that want to cheap out for a season or two.
  25. John_Havok
    Dan, I picked the HR derby tiebreakers almost perfectly… Had Robert jr with the longest at 485, he hit one 484. Had 71 as the total for the winner, total was 72. Too bad my bracket was awful…lol
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