Perhaps I phrased it wrong. Walking a guy is “worse” simply because if you don’t walk the guy, even with good hitter, you have a 70-75% chance of getting them out. So a “free pass” as it’s called, in an undesirable outcome in most cases.
As for you examples, there’s nothing to spike to football with. So if a pitcher makes a mistake and leaves it in the zone, Judge kills it? But if he chases a pitch, he doesn’t? Is there a Nobel Prize here maybe? Pitchers don’t get to pick the exact spot where they place a ball. You’re not doing anything to break down the logic if you find yourself down 2-0 to Judge and nobody is behind him, you decide to stay careful, while if Alvarez is following, you’re forced to challenge him
Also, use broader example instead of “example X”. We can all agree statistical noise is a thing, so don’t hang your hat on it, or at least acknowledge it when you make the point