Laika
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Everything posted by Laika
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Jesus christ, do you really think Toronto is getting fooled by park factors in 2015?
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Yeah these guys have huge volatility. There's only so much projectable information that you can gather from one relief season. And the only sizeable way for that volatility to act is down with a guy like Hendriks. Look what this guy did after a borderline elite relief season: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11827&position=P
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Everybody's velo spikes in the pen, but mostly by ~2.5mph or something like that. Hendriks was up 3.6-3.9 mph this year over his avg FB the last couple of seasons, and up 4.5mph from when he was last exclusively a starting pitcher. So that kind of hints at a somewhat general rise in velocity not entirely tied to relief usage. I guess the tease is that maybe he could have gone back to starting and been a guy sitting 91/92 instead of his old 90. Small differences like that in that range can have meaningful impacts.
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It's fine to say that Navarro is an offensive catcher, but it takes it way too far to say that he can cover DH. He projects to be a below average MLB hitter (and he has been his entire time in Toronto). The merits of Dioner Navarro depend entirely on whether or not you buy in to the newfangled advanced catcher stats. If you do entirely, then he is essentially a replacement level player. Maybe you can add some value for "game-calling", which escapes numerical evaluation so far, but that's speculative. If you do not buy into the new stats re: framing and blocking, then Navarro is a solid backup. For reference: His 2.1 fangraphs WAR in 2014 becomes 0.6 when we include framing numbers. His 0.5 WAR from last year becomes 0.2.
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I haven't read it in a while, but the guy is a decent writer. He just needs to start posting here so we can learn him. Twitter is a dangerous place to refine your baseball mind
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I hope so. I already have one offer that I like as a reserve bid, if nobody else is interested. I just don't really feel like I need to keep 8 or 9 SP. I'd kind of like to move Ubaldo for something decent and then keep Tommy Pham, or move a minor league asset for an elite Holds guy.
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Hendriks has a 0.9 WAR projection, which is very good and seems very reasonable. Chavez has a 2.0 WAR projection in 159 innings, which also seems reasonable. If Hendriks remains a good setup man, you're probably looking at something like 2/3.5/5 in arbitration for him. So $11M for 3.8 WAR in four years. Chavez is 2.0 WAR for $4.7M. Hendriks - surplus value of about 19M. Chavez - surplus value of about 11M. But relatively speaking Chavez is very likely to produce his WARz, since they come across only one season. Relievers are so volatile that Hendriks isn't particularly likely to remain this good four seasons from now. It's also possible for Hendriks to get a lot more money than that if he is pushed into the closer role at any time (see Tyler Clippard). The value gap on paper is so negligible that Toronto's present roster considerations almost surely mitigate it. Chavez' WAR upgrade on Toronto's current roster is substantial given how bad the SP depth is. The value of those 2016 wins is highly leveraged due to the quality of Toronto's team and their place on the win curve.
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I've decided to trade Ubaldo Jimenez today. Best prospect/pick thing offered today will land him.
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"The thing about FIP is it's kind of useless for a guy like Chavez who gives up a ton of contact" The Capital Jays guy just said that to me on the twitter. What a ridiculous statement, from a couple of angles.
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Pirates shopping Neil Walker and Orioles are interested? That's a 92 --> 114 park factor upgrade for LHB HR. please
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Well that's definitely the garbage clown way of looking at things
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You have this weird habit of running tangents off of every discussion stop it
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2015: Price + Stroman for 15 total games Dickey Buehrle Estrada Hutchison Sanchez/Norris/Doubront/Copeland/Boyd who were all terrible 2016: Stroman for a full season Dickey Estrada Chavez Hutch really that different?
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Well I think there might be a delta between what he's "worth" in hypothetical $/WAR and what the free agent market would say that he's worth, that's all. If the Jays think he can start ~20 games and approach 2 WAR again then of course he's "worth" over 10 mill. But that doesn't mean they have to extend him for that much!
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3/25 is a bit too rich for Chavez. WAR be damned, he still falls into the "swing man" archetype, and the market wouldn't grant him that much money. Jason Hammel and Edinson Volquez got 2/20 last season The last guy I can think of kind of like Chavez that hit FA was Carlos Villanueva, actually. I think he got 2/$10
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Hendriks is good and all but he's also a glaring example of how easy it can be to find good relievers. Toronto's need at SP and position on the win curve are factors that need to be considered here. It's not as simple as 4 years of this WAR vs 1 year of this WAR. Jesse Chavez is also a cool dude. Skinny and tatted. Him and Osuna can chill and do whatever it is that Mexicans do. Smoke burritos?
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Hendriks is a weird case because his velocity bump as a reliever was way more than you'd expect. He gained like four mph. Hard to say if he can start games or not. I don't really think he has the repertoire for it and if I had to guess, I doubt Oakland will even want him to start. He's more of a late inning RP to me.
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The Rockies are f***ing retarded. That is all.
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Wandy Rodriguez will likely start and have value to a rebuilding team? Ok.... I see the angle on Godley and Bassitt though. I like Bassitt. If my team was dogshit I'd be all over him. Like flies on dogshit.
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Such a North guy
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You gunning for 9th place this year?
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Spencer Patton is good! Never heard of Frandy but that's a 70 grade first name.
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Very unlikely that you'll get a fair offer for Ortiz from any of the agist bigots in this league
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Jorge Mateo is interesting!
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Deal #2 David Wright to Dr_Dinger Blake Swihart + Michael Kopech to me
