Laika

Jeff Passan ‏@JeffPassan 4m4 minutes ago Toronto's plan is to start Lourdes Gurriel Jr. at shortstop, probably at Double-A. Ultimately, thought is he may end up a corner outfielder.

Cuban contract evaluations remain all over the place. The Cardinals signed Aledmys Diaz for $8M and he looks like a stud now, after the #1 org gave him the proper amount of minor league seasoning. The Braves signed Dian Toscano for $8M and he literally doesn't even exist. The Angels gave $8M to Roberto Baldoquin and he's been the worst player in A+ for two years in a row. Alex Guerrero got $28M from the Dodgers and he blows. The Reds gave Raisel Iglesias 7/$27 and he's a f***ing weapon. The Cubbies thought the world of Soler and gave him 9/$30 as a youngin'. Puig at 21 got 7/$42 from the Dodgers. It's hard to read anything into the dollar amounts given to these Cubes. IIRC Gurriel had a showcase back in September. It's safe to say that he didn't blow anybody's socks off. I think the suppressed dollar amount is indicative of the fact that he probably needs a lot of minor league seasoning in the eyes of scouts. Don't expect him to knock on the door in 2017. It's probably correct to say that if teams viewed him as a 2017 solution then he would have received something closer to the Tomas/Castillo/Olivera deals.

I really thought Gurriel Jr. would get more money than that.

Wow, this is great. Toronto operating like a big boy team. As they should. As a player, Gurriel Jr. seems like a bit of an enigma. He really could be anything. Middle infielder? Third baseman? Corner outfielder? Bench player? Slugger? OBP guy? Hacker? Total bust?

Yes, if people want to suggest that I discuss certain transactions, feel free.

This is the third of many offseason threads where I'll take a stance and advocate for the Blue Jays to make a specific move. I may not actually think Toronto should make every move, but I'll lay out the case for it in order to generate discussion. First two: Trade-for-Howie-Kendrick Sign-Luis-Valbuena Toronto should sign Eric Thames We don't know if Eric Thames wants to come back to the MLB. If he does, Toronto should be all over him. Thames would generate a lot if interest as a possible low cost, high impact player. The guy has been a monster overseas. In the last three years in the KBO he has finished 3rd, 1st, and 2nd in OPS. He's looked like Babe Ruth in the KBO. It's hard to know what that means in terms of him being a good MLB hitter going forward, but several recent KBO imports can help put it in context. In 2014, Thames and Jung Ho Kang hit 37 and 40 homers in the KBO, respectively. They finished within .090 points of OPS and had very similar K and BB totals. Kang came to the majors and has transitioned beautifully with a 131 wRC+ so far for the Pirates. In 2014 and 2015 in the KBO Hyun-Soo-Kim didn't approach Thames' level of dominance. Kim walked more than he struck out and hit for a high average, but his OPS in both years was at least .300 points below Thames'. Nonetheless, Kim's approach transitioned well to the big leagues this year with a 119 wRC+ (albeit, somewhat guarded against LHP.) Byung-Ho Park is the other side of the coin. In 2014 and 2015 in the KBO he was Thames' equal in terms of offensive production, ranking 2nd in OPS both years. This didn't translate to Minnesota this year though. Park hit for power but struck out at a 33% clip, leading to an 80 wRC+ and a demotion. Park still projects for a 101 wRC+ next year and a lot of his struggles might be explainable by poor BABIP luck, but he likely won't be as successful as the other two imports and he is at serious risk of being a bust. Unlike Park, Thames demonstrated a mature approach at the dish in Korea. In 2015 Park struck out 161 times in 140 games. Thames struck out just 91 times, and he walked in a whopping 103 trips to the plate. Thames' contact and batting-eye skills in 2015 were similar to Kim's - Kim walked 101 times that year in the KBO and only struck out 63 times. In the majors this year Kim had a 10.4% walk rate and a 14.7% k rate. In his brief MLB career Thames walked only 5.6% of the time, to go along with a 25.6% k rate. If Thames has matured and can be counted on to post a walk rate similar to Kim's while maybe splitting the difference between Kim's K rate and his own prior K rate, then he could really be an offensive weapon. With Michael Saunders likely leaving Toronto looks to have absolutely no source of left handed power in their lineup. Heck, they probably don't even have a left-handed or switch hitter of any competency at all right now. Thames would potentially balance out the lineup in a necessary way. Like Park, Thames will have to hit because he won't bring any defensive value to the table. He has strictly been a 1B in Korea and back when he was an MLB outfielder his UZR/150 was -13.6. But Toronto has vacancies at 1B, DH, and LF right now, so Thames certainly fills a need. If he can play LF with any competency at all then he might fit the roster like a glove. Thames' fans like myself are still waiting for any confirmation that he'll be coming back to the big leagues. His contract is up in the KBO. He made just $1.5M last year, so a massive pay raise would be the biggest draw for Thames. Last year the Twins guaranteed $12M to Park, but it was a bit of a weird contract with that money being spread across four years. Kang signed an almost identical contact the year prior for $11M with Pittsburgh. If Thames would sign for something similar then a dozen MLB teams will be trying to woo him. Thames is an exotic superstar in the KBO though and he could probably make a similar AAV to that by staying in Korea, so I think he'll want a higher AAV on his MLB contract and perhaps a shorter term, so he can get to the MLB arbitration stage quicker and be in a stronger negotiating position more quickly. Note: Thames had a DUI in Korea at the tail end of this season. I'm not sure if they will affect his transition situation in any meaningful way. If Chocolate Thunder wants to give MLB another crack then Shatkins need to do everything in their power to get him back into the Blue Jays organization. Please sign Eric Thames. Please.

Colabello came back this year. He had a .536 OPS in AAA lmao.

Ryon Healy

Yup. November 26, 2011: Purchased by the Toronto Blue Jays from the Cleveland Indians. April 4, 2012: Selected off waivers by the Chicago Cubs from the Toronto Blue Jays. Really needed to get Omar Vizquel onto the roster.

This will be the second of many offseason threads where I'll take a stance and advocate for the Blue Jays to make a specific move. I may not actually think Toronto should make every move, but I'll lay out the case for it in order to generate discussion. The Blue Jays should sign Luis Valbuena Luis Valbuena will be 31 years old before the 2017 season and he enters free agency for the first time. Last year with the Astros he made $6.1M in his fourth year of arbitration. On their list of top 50 MLB free agents with predictions, MLBTR ranks Valbuena 31st and predicts that he'll sign with the Brewers for two years and $14M total. Last year with Houston Valbuena contributed 2.0 fWAR in just 342 PA. In the last five years between the Cubs and Astros Valbuena has been worth 9.6 total wins in roughly 2076 PA. That averages out to 2.77 fWAR per 600 PA. No team should expect to get that type of production from Valbuena though. The lefty bat has been a platoon player for big chunks of his career and his career wRC+ is 86 against left handed pitching. While his career mark against righties (98 wRC+) does not illustrate a large platoon split, he's simply not (or hasn't been, historically) a good enough hitter to roll out against left handed arms on a starting basis. Valbuena projects to be a league average hitter according to Steamer even though his batting lines in the last three seasons have all been comfortably above average. Valbuena is valuable because of his broad skill-set. He can make contact, walk, hit for power, contribute on both sides of the ball, and contribute to roster flexibility. In the last 3 years his relevant offensive indicators are: Walk rate: 11.5% Strikeout rate: 21.7% ISO: .199 BABIP: .278 AVG: .243 OBP: .334 Valbuena has become one of the new-age offensive players who clearly understands that driving the ball in the air can be a viable approach at the dish. In terms of ISO in the last three seasons he ranks 53rd in baseball (minimum 800 PA), essentially tied with notable big-bodied sluggers like Mike Napoli and Carlos Santana. What Valbuena does at the dish is very similar to the offensive approached employed by Encarnacion, Bautista, Martin, and Tulowitzki, so he would fit right in with demonstrated team philosophies. On the defensive side of things, Valbuena brings flexibility but he might not be quite as flexible as people think. He only has 15 career innings in the outfield, he hasn't touched shortstop in any meaningful way in over half a decade, he also hasn't played 2B for any meaningful sample since 2010 unless you consider 20 games in 2014 meaningful, and he only has 39 career games at first base all coming the last two seasons with the Astros. Valbuena has been almost exclusively a third baseman since 2012; he has 432 games started at 3B in the last five seasons and only 58 at other positions (1B and 2B.) Valbuena's career UZR/150 at 3B is 3.6. Toronto clearly doesn't need a third baseman unless a disaster happens. His mark at 2B is -5.4, but small sample size and the passage of time make that number almost meaningless. I'm sure Valbuena can play 1B just fine but if he's going to fit on the Blue Jays roster then he probably needs to be able to cover 2B at least in a part-time or backup role and he needs to be able to play LF well enough to fill a platoon role. Whether or not he can actually do those things is hard for me to answer. It's a question for the scouting department. But even if Valbuena gets a lot of his PA as a DH/1B he could be an asset for the Blue Jays. This is especially true if he is coupled with the acquisition of a strong RHB platoon partner, such as Steve Pearce. You can do A LOT worse than a Valbuena/Pearce platoon at DH (and arguably, it's hard to do much better.) In the last three years Valbuena has been a bit of a slugger; he's not a player that necessarily needs to be on the field in order to be valuable in the sense of WAR. If you can sign a guy who has averaged 2.77 WAR per 600 PA in the last five years to a two-year contract for $7M AAV, then you should probably go ahead and do it if there's any feasible way to work him into the lineup. I think there is a feasible way. He's a good hitter and it really seems like he's figured out this baseball thing, at least on the hitting side. Sign him.

The thing with Travis' injury history isn't the simple occurrence of injuries. Break a leg here, dislocate a shoulder there - it happens. It's a sport. No, it's HOW he got injured. This guy destroyed his shoulder and his knee in the most mundane ways possible. He doesn't even remember what he did to his knee. He got like, hit with a grounder on the collar bone IIRC? Kind of nuts. Mr. Glass?

Depends on how you evaluate Travis' injuries. Do you dock his projected production at all? How much? I feel like I think I'd do it. Inciarte is quite good at baseball. 3.60 fWAR / 600 PA in his career so far. UZR steady as can be, in Pillar territory. Not quite as productive as Travis has been when healthy though. I'd sign/acquire a big gross home run statue for one of the corners and call the outfield done.

I wonder if the Braves would trade their gold glover Inciarte for Travis. Same amount of control remaining (4 years). Braves had basically the worst offense in baseball. Inciarte projects for an 89 wRC+, but 2.1 WAR. Travis should hit better and produce a similar WAR. He could probably hit 2nd or 5th in their lineup. Of course I'm looking at rosterresource right now and they have Ozzie Albies in AAA so I guess they wouldn't do this.

This will be the first of many offseason threads where I'll take a stance and advocate for the Blue Jays to make a specific move. I may not actually think Toronto should make every move, but I'll lay out the case for it in order to generate discussion. Toronto should trade for Howie Kendrick Ken Rosenthal tweeted today that the Dodgers are exploring trades for Howie Kendrick and focusing on short term upgrades. Rosenthal reports that Kendrick "grew tired" of his role with the Dodgers last year. Jon Heyman reported that Kendrick's preference is to be traded, and to be traded into a more regular playing time situation. Last year with the Dodgers Kendrick had just a 91 wRC+. He accrued just 0.9 fWAR, appearing 94 times in the OF and 60 on the infield. Kendrick played games at LF, 2B (his native position), 3B, and 1B. Kendrick has been a much better player in his career than he showed in 2016. As a prospect he was pegged as a "future batting champion." This never came true, but he does have a career 106 wRC+ buoyed largely by good basic hitting skills and a .289 batting average. He has amassed 27 WAR in his career. In 2015 he was worth 2.2 wins and in 2017 Steamer projects him to be worth about 1.56 wins. (as an aside - very similar player and skill-set to Devon Travis). Kendrick is owed $10M in 2017 - he signed a two year, $20 deal with the Dodgers last offseason. In 2017, when the qualifying offer is $17.2M, $10M is not a large investment. If Kendrick can find his way into the Blue Jays lineup every day and play to his projected talent then he'd be worth that money. Toronto currently has holes in both corner outfield spots. Kendrick does not have much outfield experience but LF was his primary position last year with the Dodgers and he was decent defensively according to the metric. He had a +4.3 UZR/150 in 675 innings in LF. In his long career at 2B Kendrick has been a +4 defender by UZR/150, although he was below average in limited innings at 2B last year and below average in a starting role the year before. Height Doesn't Measure Heart, but it might have something to do with Devon Travis' durability. In the last two years with the Blue Jays the diminutive second baseman has suffered multiple serious injuries to his upper and lower body. In both years Toronto has had to turn to inferior 2B options in the playoffs and the results have been predictably bad. Insuring the position with a veteran like Kendrick would be a luxury. The role for Kendrick out of spring training would likely be as a LF. Perhaps this would be in a platoon (Kendrick's preference for a full-time role is irrelevant.) It's not hard to envision a scenario where he gets a lot of time at 2B though. On the team level, it can perhaps be argued that Kendrick's offensive profile provides a bit of a counter-balance to the low average, high strikeout ways of the 2016 Blue Jays hitters. I wouldn't put too much value on this line of thinking though. Teams just need good hitters, and good players, period. That includes role players and depth players. Toronto's offense was very good last year all things considered. The team just gave a few too many PA away to role-players who aren't good (Goins+Upton+Carrera+Smoak = 1000 PA and -0.4 fWAR.) Build a better bench, Shatkins. And that's the bottom line with Kendrick. Veteran depth and positional flexibility. What would he cost? It shouldn't be much. Considering his contract there isn't much surplus value here and the Dodgers, if they re-sign Turner, probably have more attractive starting options at all of the relevant positions. In the OF alone they have Pederson, Puig, Toles, Ethier, Thompson (and some other options.) I think Toronto could maybe get Kendrick for a song if they assume the money. A reliever with options. What's Ryan Tepera's fastball spin rate, anybody know? They should trade for him.

Decent target - sure. To help the bullpen - no. He had TOS surgery in August and should be counted on for absolutely nothing in 2017.

yeeeesh maybe 25%

I thought he said in April that he wanted to play "five more years". I guess he changed his mind

They'll trade for Votto though so this is moot

Honestly, I would rather sign Mark Teixeira and hope for one more dead cat bounce. Mostly because Morales is young enough to demand 2 or 3 years. Tex would be one and done. Of course even better would be a Steve Pearce + any viable LHB platoon

The Yankees have essentially done the regular season version with Betances the last three years. He very often is asked to get 1.1, 1.2, or even 2.0 innings.

Also, teams already rode their relievers a lot harder in the playoffs. The special thing about this year was basically just Andrew Miller and his ability to go 6+ outs every freaking game. I don't think a typical closer can do that. I wonder if anybody not named Andrew Miller could do what he did. We saw in game 7 Maddon tried to use Chapman like Tito has used Miller, and Chapman was not very good. And that's Aroldis Chapman! So, it's not really something that can be copied IMO. But we'll see.

BJ Ryan was one of their highest paid players though. It's not so much that the contract was horrible in a nutshell. Just bad for a mid-market team. BJ Ryan should have been a luxury piece on a rich team. In 2008 he took up more payroll than Roy Halladay

I think he's almost certainly better than Zeke. Pompey has higher variance. Could be better or worse - by a lot.

Is John Stilson still in the system? 2080 is tracking AFL velocities and has him as a grade 65 FB. Sitting 95.3. Same FB as Dillon Tate. Not that it matters much I suppose. He must have s*** secondaries and no command or something because the numbers have been so bad.

Seems like a thug