Laika

I'll put $50 on under 95.5

79 wRC+ over/under

I've got Mr. Jose Reyes OTB.

Not even an attempt to milk value out of Ramos, eh? I respect that. Cut the cord. He's probably dead meat.

This will be the sixth of many offseason threads where I'll take a stance and advocate for the Blue Jays to make (or not make) a specific move. I may not actually think Toronto should make every move, but I'll lay out the case for it in order to generate discussion. Toronto should sign Bud Norris Bud Norris has an ugly name, an ugly face, an ugly personality, and ugly numbers over the last two years. Toronto should sign him anyway. From 2010 to 2014 Bud Norris was a pretty consistent league average starting pitcher. His WAR values oscillated between 1.4 and 2.7. He started 145 in that span and his xFIP, FIP , and ERA were all between 4.00 and 4.21. He was in the same class of durability and talent in that timeframe as pitchers like Jason Vargas, Ricky Nolasco, Kyle Lohse, and Mike Leake. Those four signed contracts in free agency ranging from $30M to $80M between 2013 and 2016. Bud Norris' value as a pitcher during this timeframe is evident from the 2013 trade to the Orioles that netted the Astros Josh Hader - an extremely talented left-handed SP prospect who has since ascended to top ~30 overall prospect status. But when Bud Norris reached free agency in 2016 all he could land was a 2.5M contract with the Atlanta Braves. This is because Bud Norris was a nightmare in 2015 - his final arbitration year. He was so bad in 2015 that he got released mid-season and finished his year as a reliever for the Padres. He was also an abomination of a pitcher in 2016; he started the year as a serviceable swingman for the Braves but after getting dealt to the Dodgers he threw up a 6.54 ERA and earned getting designated for assignment. All told in 2015 and 2016 Norris pitched 196 innings (30 starts and 43 relief appearances) of 5.79 ERA and 4.63 FIP baseball. That's replacement level pitching. The thing with Bud Norris is, there's no obvious reason why he went from good to terrible. In his heyday, Norris' heater could tickle 95 and 96, sitting in the 92/93 range. In 2015 and 2016 he had the same velocity as ever (see image at bottom). His K and BB rates weren't much different than they've ever been. His GB rates in the two bad years were actually career highs. His pitch mix seems similar to his historical mix. He was in the strike zone as much as he used to be, he got swings and misses at basically the same rate.... the guy just gave up runs. His BABIP in both years was a bit higher than his career mark, his LOB% was lower than ever, and his HR/FB% was at career high percentages. If you're familiar with the concept of "the signal and the noise", Bud Norris' "struggles" in these last two years look a lot like noise to me. The signal, in a holistic sense, seems to indicate that Bud Norris' talent level is the same as it was when he was a league average starting pitcher. CLEARLY he would be available for free agency peanuts. He sucked butts on old-school paper in 2015 and then signed early for just $2.5M. Since he doubled down on the butt-sucking in 2016, there's no reason for him to cost any more than he got last year. Two things that Toronto could use are viable relief pitching and SP depth. Conceivably, Bud Norris could fill both roles, starting the year in the pen with the ability to chew up some innings if needed. My vision and personal hope is that they sign Norris and just tell him that he's a reliever. The fastball is good (at least in terms of velocity) and the slider, his bread and butter pitch, got good results even in his crummy 2016. It's hard not to think of Joe Blanton, and to be honest that's probably why I want Norris so bad. Yes this isn't great reasoning, but humour while I tell you what you already know about Blanton. Joe was a pretty solid, slightly above average SP up until 2013 when he was all of a sudden terrible. He pitched a few games in the minors in 2014 and then announced his retirement. But a change of heart brought him back to the sport as a reliever in 2015 and he has been dynamite, doing it all with a real good slider, a normal fastball, command, and veteran guile. Norris might not have Blanton's command and guile but his stuff is certainly as good as if not better than Joe's. Guys who are starting pitchers in the big leagues for a long time are REALLY good at pitching, and we should almost expect them to be good relief pitchers even when they stop being good at starting (not that I think Bud Norris has necessarily lost his ability to start.) Small sample size, but Norris may have given a tease of his RP capabilities in 2015 with San Diego, where he pitched 16.1 innings all in short relief. He had an 11.34 K/9 in that stint with a 2.65 FIP. He's also shown in the last two years that when he's used solely in relief his fastball can sit at 95+, touching 97+. Pretty good! Anyway, too many words for a dirtbag like Bud Norris (remember his public comments calling Jon Singleton dumb and saying that foreign players should conform to baseball's white culture...). It's pretty simple. Not much to lose here and a lot possibly to be gained. Sign this piece of s*** already. http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/9492_P_FA_20160918.png

I discussed this in the piece. I mentioned Alford and/or Osuna as possible centrepieces but also stated that Los Angeles' needs are few and they don't line up with Toronto so it's tough to speculate. I don't see the point in making a full hypothetical.

He slipped because he made it well known that without like, 5M+ he was going to college.

No, if I'm not personally allowed to overhaul Puig's swing then they aren't allowed to trade for him. This is a deal breaker for me.

I see flaws in his legs, actually. In the first gif you'll notice that the back foot comes off the ground and moves back a few inches. You want this to happen! In the second swing he is trying to "squash the bug" and his foot stays on the dirt and turns. Ugh. A terrible cue. His front leg also stays elevated a bit more in the first swing.

I think you're correct. If Toronto REALLY wants to get Puig it might take some creativity and a 3-way trade, or a follow up trade, with the team that can give LA that top end arm.

This will be the fifth of many offseason threads where I'll take a stance and advocate for the Blue Jays to make (or not make) a specific move. I may not actually think Toronto should make every move, but I'll lay out the case for it in order to generate discussion. Toronto should trade for Yazl Pweeg Yasiel Puig is one of the most popular, famous, exciting, gif-worthy, and most importantly, talented players in Major League Baseball. He is an other-worldly physical talent and a social media genius #PuigYourFriend. In 2013 he took the baseball world by storm: .398 wOBA, 4.1 fWAR (in 432 PA), highlight after highlight. In 2014 he showed no obvious signs of slowing down and his BB and K rates were actually a bit better. He ended up with 5.4 fWAR in a full season. He was a franchise player. Puig only spent 40 games in AA in 2013 before zooming up to Los Angeles, but even with limited looks at the Cuban defector scouts weren't shy to put tags on him like "cathedral ceiling" and "Bo Jackson". All of his tools were earning scouting grades in the 60-80 range. Jason Parks of BP also loved him but was slightly more tepid, giving Puig only an average future hit tool and opining that the speed would only play as average at best due to his linebacker body. But Puig is a magnet for drama. In 2013 he was arrested TWICE for reckless driving after going 100mph and doubling the speed limit. Questions about his makeup and maturity have been pervasive since his first day in the big leagues (he was given number 66 in reference to 666, el Diablo - his reputation preceded him). Ex-teammates have said that he is "the worst person in baseball", outside executives have said anonymously that Puig is a clubhouse nightmare and the Dodgers have been open to trading him since his rookie year. In 2015 a current Dodgers player said about trading Puig, ""We've talked about this... At this point, it would be addition by subtraction." Puig has been fined and disciplined by his own team multiple times. Reportedly, he is frequently lazy, doesn't work hard, and clashes with teammates. This past year he was demoted and immediately posted snapchats partying in AAA after a meaningless win. Ironically, Puig has managed to endear himself to baseball fans while burning bridges with his colleagues. Aside from Dodgers fans frustrated with his performance and last-gen baseball fans who still get their news in print, baseball fans in general seem to absolutely adore Yasiel. His childish personality might have something to do with this. There have also been chronic injury issues. It seems like Puig strains his hamstring a couple of times every year, necessitating a trip to the DL. And perhaps these character cracks and injuries have truly affected his performance. From 2015 to 2016 he was just the 69th best OUTFIELDER, minimum 600 PA, in baseball. With just 2.5 fWAR in 679 MLB PA across those two years he was barely an average player. His wRC+ plummeted from 150+ to the 107 range. His plate discipline numbers got much worse: his K-BB% fell from 8.9% in 2014 to 13.6% in 2016. His performance has fallen off a cliff. In some ways, the drop in production may have been predictable and it might have less to do with attitude, injuries, and makeup than people think. Puig's BABIP marks in 2013 and 2014 were .383 and .356 - extremely lofty figures that had people with basic baseball statistical acumen calling for significant regression to the mean. His BABIP the last two years has been right around .300, the rough league average. This is a neat little narrative but it might be an oversimplification. Puig was getting plus and double plus grades on his hit tool while he was beasting and he was a spray hitter with serious power and decent speed. It wouldn't have been weird to see his true-talent BABIP fall into the .350 range, alongside elite hitter like Trout, Miggy, and Votto. And that's certainly what Puig looked like - an elite hitter. The Dodgers have fallen short of playoff glory the last few years, and are clearly frustrated with Puig. They have the names on their depth chart to piece together a viable outfield without Yasiel; Joc Pederson, Andrew Toles, Andre Ethier, Trayce Thompson, Kike Hernandez, Rob Segedin. Adding a right handed hitting platoon OF might be all they need, if Puig leaves the fold. Puig projects for 3.3 fWAR next year. His projection would probably have as much variance as anyone in baseball. He is under control for two more full seasons and owed just 6.5M in 2017 and 7.5M in 2018. He has significant value on paper, although it is extremely difficult to peg how MLB GMs would factor his externalities into his value. Clearly Toronto needs corner outfielders. Is Yasiel Puig a damaged goods landmine, or the buy-low opportunity of a GM's lifetime? It's hard not to think that getting Puig out of Los Angeles would be good for him. If you buy the media consensus that he has the mind of a 16 year old, then less distractions would be great. If you don't care about the spin about his mental makeup, then a change of scenery could still be a great thing for a 26 year old who has taken a couple of steps backwards in his baseball development. His flashy personality might even fit in OK on the Blue Jays, where Marcus Stroman is unabashedly trying to start a personal fashion brand with his fame and Josh Donaldson is a loud-as-hell, in-your-face dirtbag. Personally, I think Puig's swing has undergone some mechanical adjustments or declines in the last couple of years that are at least partially responsible for his poor performance. The below two gifs come from when Puig was good and when he sucked, respectively. http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/PuigIn1.gif http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/PuigIn2.gif I'm not a scout or a hitting coach but I follow a handful of them on the twitter so listen to me here. Puig is loading earlier and loading differently in the first swing. In the second gif he loads later and he's not ready to hit. I think his swing is also flatter, and I think he's been making concerted efforts in his MLB career to keep his front elbow down to avoid "chicken-winging" - this is a cue that mistaken hitting coaches give to keep swings from upper-cutting, on the false pretense that flat swings are objectively good. Puig should be loading early and swinging for damage - just like the Blue Jays core hitters of the last half decade. He's a f***ing athlete, let him swing like a f***ing athlete god dammit. So what would he cost? Well, the Dodgers are shrewd and they know what he's worth on paper. They also know that they would be selling low, and they don't HAVE to trade him. But there is significant buzz to indicate that they are open to the idea, and last year during the waiver-trade deadline period there was nearly an expectation that he would get dealt to fuel their playoff run. The thing with the Dodgers depth chart is that they don't really need anything. I'm sure they would be happy to absorb even more prospect capital and make some incremental upgrades on their team. One thing that might be lacking from their longer-term depth chart is a real CF. Joc Pederson has been adequate but he might not have the body or profile to stay in CF long term. Maybe a package could start with Anthony Alford. Or, if the Dodgers fail to bring back Kenley Jansen or land another big RP in free agency, they could have interest in Osuna. Governator made a great point: Toronto might have to get creative or get involved in a 3-way to land this guy. There is enough information here to see that Yasiel Puig is still extremely intriguing. Every "reason" that he has been underperforming couples as a factor that could be corrected so that he'll return to being a five tool behemoth. This guy is 26 years old. He still has that cathedral ceiling that was visible in his first two seasons. He has two cheap years of control left. Change the scenery, fix the swing, profit. Trade for Yasiel Puig. #MakeYasielGreatAgain #MYGA

mods please delete this thread in light of what's going on with DAPL this thread is f***ing annoying

ee gammings ‏@eegammings 6m6 minutes ago the Blue Jays have the highest offer for Jemile Weeks, but he doesn't like the coffee shops in Toronto

omg

yup

Oh, hamate bone this year. Could explain the s***** offensive numbers.

I'm mostly interested in the Defense. IF the defensive chops exist, then he could still carve out an MLB role. He has some batting eye and contact skills (stat-scouting) and scouts say he has raw power. He's just 21 so if he matures, then harder contact and more game power could significantly improve his ability to hit for extra bases and hit generally. BUT if he's not a good defender then he has no chance.

Danny "Super Tek" Jansen needs to bounce back this year or else he's a buried non-prospect. Someone scout him this game please. Hard. Scout hard.

Reminder of what Andrew Miller's contract is... 4 yrs/$36M

He'd cost way too much.

Someone explain to me why that was a block by Patterson on defense but an offensive foul at the other end. I don't get it.

Not a bad suggestion. He'll cost about ~8M in his final year of arb. If he gets to free agency he could actually get a multi-year deal. In related news, the Twins are really stupid.

26th man

Lezbehonest, in a world where Nick Markakis got 4/$44 it was silly for them to predict 3/$36 for Reddick. I should have noted that originally.

Maybe later tonight!