Laika

The "older prospect" point is not the smartest. Walker was a college pick in 2018. He'll be a 23 year old in AA in 2020. He's on track with many other college picks and only like, ~200 AA plate appearances behind a number of even elite 2018 college picks. Joey Bart spent most of 2019 in A+ just like Walker!

I don't think Mazara has any actual value in terms of projected production vs. projected contracts. He only has value if you think there is still realizable upside there and put a $$ value on the chance that he might reach it. Steele Walker is pretty good and interesting.

Top to bottom possibly but teams have had better top ends of the rotation (2019 Nats!). And I'll say no anyway because you can look at teams like the 2003 Yankees who got 23.7 fWAR from their rotation and then had a bullpen with Mariano Rivera closing games. Or the 2011 Phillies!

Teams never stopped paying for elite starters. Darvish got paid, Corbin got paid, Tanaka got a huge extension. Arrieta got less than he wanted but had a lot of red flags and he still got a decent AAV. Price set a record in 2016. IIRC there were no elite starters in the 2017 market.

This trade is a good illustration of how far apart team fan bases can be, and how subjective knowledge and talent analysis is in baseball. I'm seeing lots of White Sox fans crying about this trade because Mazara sucks and Steele Walker is a good prospect. I'm seeing lots of Rangers fans crying about how they got almost nothing for the Nomar Mazara. Of course, the Rangers won the deal because Nomar Mazara does in fact blow.

Never. By definition they aren’t executed - they vest.

Tonight I will be legitimately exploring some KFC, I think.

Yankees fans on twitter are scared of Happ staying in the division! I wouldn’t want to trade Happ back to Toronto. He’ll get good again lol. Send him out of the division. It’s amazing how many other people forget how good he was from 2016-2018. Even if he was bad last year, I don’t want him in the division. Send him to the NL

And there's a chance he rebounds. He was a 3 WAR pitcher for four years in a row before 2018. He was excellent in Toronto so obviously likes pitching here. If he bounces back high enough, that 2021 vesting option might not look that bad. Biggest reason to avoid doing it at this juncture is that it would still be preferable to land, say, Ryu and Lindblom. Happ should be more of a "well, f*** - we got nobody" move.

I don't even think Andujar should have huge value. He was above average in 2018 but had some big flaws - a brutal fielder who does not walk. It's unsurprising that he projects poorly. I don't think he's obviously the type of position player that even gets tendered all the way through arbitration. Happ + Andujar for some token player that New York finds useful seems fair enough to me. Alternatively, Toronto could try to involve Ken Giles while getting significant prospect capital either instead of Andujar or along with him. Happ + Andujar + Frazier + Clarke Schmidt for Giles + filler. It will never happen because it would make New York look weak but I honestly think it's fair. That's $9M in 2020 salary relief for New York plus relief from Happ's potential 2021 salary. Andujar does not project well despite his strong 2018. Frazier does not project well despite his pedigree and he's also out of favour in New York. Their bullpen would be f***ing insane.

I'm down for taking Happ if the Yankees make it worth the Blue Jays' while. Heck, if he bounces back the 2021 option vesting would not be a horrible thing. They can make it worth it for Toronto with a B/B+ prospect or like, $7M.

This reminds me of several guys in our dynasty leagues. Honestly I think it's great news that the Blue Jays do due diligence on the entire market. Why would you want a team to do anything less than that? That's sublime coverage and their sense of the market probably helped them pull the trigger on the Chase Anderson move, which I think was good. There's a lot of time to add SP talent and free agent talent. If the 2021 roster has holes in it then the process has been flawed, but until then we can't say that. There's a chance that they strike out on significant additions this offseason but they are not really in a position where they should be doing anything over the top anyway so that might be fine.

Apparently the draft event will be in Omaha instead of New Jersey and a little bit later this year. More prospects are expected to attend now.

Not really, the variance is just higher in either direction; they could very well be much better or much worse.

Yeah I don't think this is trending well for Toronto. Once Cole and Strasburg are off the board, LAD will probably re-sign Ryu and some other teams like the White Sox or Twins will overpay for Keuchel and Bumgarner. Then Lindblom will probably break Toronto's hearts (and mine). I feel like this is trending towards, at best, a couple of awkward pacts with ugly has-beens like Wacha, Teheran, Jimmer Nelson, Matty Moore, or Kevin Gooseman.

To a lesser extent the Liriano - McGuire deal is an example. Hilarious how the Pirates are now looking for a decent young C. The Cubs would probably add grade B or C prospects to shed enough salary.

Also this guy's name is Yoshi Sugo. C'monnnn just sign him now

The general sentiment about supplementing now is correct, but I think the Lester hypothetical is taking it a bit too far.

In free agency there are no other options that combine what Yoshi would offer: a position player under 30 years old with upside, no demonstrated MLB failure, team control, at a potentially reasonable rate. This is as close as you can get in free agency: Addison Russell - 26, 4.118 service time, big off-the-field warts Jose Peraza - 26, 3.141 service time Domingo Santana - 27, 4.024 service time, replacement level two seasons in a row Maikel Franco - 27, 4.157 service time, replacement level over the last three seasons Ryon Healy - 28, 3.080 service time, sucks Greg Bird - 27, 4.053 service time, replacement level career and has had 12 surgeries Yolmer Sanchez - 28, 4.143 service time, one dimensional player already too expensive through arbitration Guillermo Heredia - 29, 3.054 service time, replacement level He also fits the roster (team need) and the timeline. It will be egregious if Yoshi is not a Blue Jay this month.

Brennen Davis is one of the Cubs' only really intriguing prospects. I know this is all just hypothetical but they really aren't shipping him out to save money. In looking to dump salary the Cubs will be trying to offload Darvish, Heyward, and Chatwood. They would give Lester away or pay some cash considerations for someone to take him. You might be able to talk them into offloading Kyle Hendricks' contract for a prospect, which is what I would be most interested in.

Even if some of the concerns are with merit he could be a useful long-term player especially with the 26th man. The shiny comparison would be the man himself, Eric Thames, who has 4.9 fWAR over the last three years in about ~1200 PA, so not a full time role for most of it but the strong side of a platoon. Yoshi could be worse than that and still worth keeping. If it's a simple 2 or 3 year deal the team would retain six years of control over him through arbitration. I think it's a pretty standard clause though for foreign veterans to negotiate that the team can't offer them arbitration at the end of the contract term (has to non-tender and let them be a free agent). So what you can see with younger players is multiple years of team options (see Kikuchi.) It's like a right of first refusal on an extension, if he's any good. We might see something similar. I think Kikuchi's deal is 3 years guaranteed, then basically a four year extension past that at 16.5 AAV that the team has to exercise all at once at the end of the third year. Or you might just see a longer term deal like with Maeda. I think if a team is investing in Yoshi they want a chance to profit if the upside comes to fruition so a basic 2 year deal isn't the goal.

With any luck you'll croak this season and then you won't have to suffer the Blue Jays anymore

interesting also, hendricks

Yoshitomo Tsutsugo is really a great target for Toronto for so many reasons.

It was a joke projection. Next time I will make it more obvious and say he will hit .420 with 69 homerz or something nice like that.