Laika

Everything is possible What is probable though? The run expectancy of having a runner on second with no outs is about 1.068. So if Dolis pitches a clean ninth, the most probable scenario is Toronto scoring one run in the top of the 10th.

shut up connor

No, to win the game Toronto has to pitch the bottom of the 9th and the 10th innings, at minimum. Montoyo has to think of them both simultaneously, he can't just ignore the 10th until it happens. Really just a question of whether you want Dolis vs. the heart of their lineup with nobody on base, or Dolis vs. the other part of their lineup with a man on base. A: Romano against the heart in the ninth + Dolis trying to hold the extra inning runner B: Dolis against the heart in the ninth + Romano trying to hold the extra inning runner You would need to actually do the math on the leverage of both situations and consider the reliever results tendencies (strikeout rate, etc.) It's possible that facing the bottom of the order with an inherited runner is HIGHER leverage than facing the heart of the order with nobody on base. It really is NOT the classic mistake of "saving the closer for a save situation" because of the extra inning rule. You manage the game to win the game, not to survive one more inning.

salty tears

I'd care more if he was a sure top 1 or 2 talent. Looks like he is just one of the top 5 or so guys, so whatever. Jays pulled a bigger steal with Martin than Leiter would be for Boston and it's not even close

Leiter has been in the top 3 a lot. It's only very recently that he has started mocking a bit lower, perhaps because of this

Right, I didn't even think of this. To spell it out for everyone - if Montoyo used Romano successfully in the bottom of the 9th that just means it would have been Dolis, or Castro, or whoever pitching the bottom of the 10th with a runner on second. Romano is basically the only reliever with a half decent chance of stranding that extra innings runner.

Penalty is fine as long as it is actively enforced during games. Having a pitcher removed from the game is a huge penalty

Yeah it's part of his profile. High walks, but also hard to square up

Really should have traded for Matt Wisler two days ago

Yeah you already expressed this opinion. You might be right but you're probably wrong.

I don't think that's strictly true. The team has been pretty quick to give guys like Merryweather and Romano high leverage roles because they were performing with great stuff that "projects" well. Castro is just kind of getting results. Eye test says replacement level reliever, to me. Dolis actually has a closer type out pitch. Basically, for Castro to have better projections he would need a REASON for them. Wicked s***, a couple seasons of v good MLB performance, etc.

His elite stats overseas matter quite a bit and show up in the Steamer and ZiPS projections.

That's year to date, not projections

Try to be less stupid next time you log in

Dolis is probably their second best projected reliever. Like it or not.

Well then. It's not ideal but still not like, Ubaldo over Britton. I don't know if you call it egregious, per se

I actually LIKE that Buntoyo isn't quickly favoring Castro to Dolis. That would be dumb. Castro has like ten effective MLB innings under his belt. Dolis was a stud last year and has better projections.

Biggio was playing in his natural 2B position, basically. Terrible misplay by Cavan

He's perhaps still their 2nd best reliever, lol. As dinglet says, who knows wtf is going on with Romano

Can't actually blame Montoyo for that one.

He lacks.... the tack! (Seinfeld voice)

Was Tyler Chatwood only good this year because he was cheating? I wasn't sure where to see spin rates for select periods so I pulled up some games in savant. Chatwood is a bit tricky because he throws mostly fastball variants and not a lot of four seamers. I decided to look only at cutters, since it is a spin reliant pitch. Date ---- Range CT spin 04-01 ---- 2826 to 2999 04-03 ---- 2690 to 2876 04-05 ---- 2798 to 2995 04-23 ---- 2662 to 2886 04-27 ---- 2517 to 2932 05-23 ---- 2837 to 2981 (struggles begin, two BB and 4 ER) 05-25 ---- 2689 to 2983 05-29 ---- 2549 to 2977 06-04 ---- 2591 to 2787 06-09 ---- 2679 to 2793 06-11 ---- 2557 to 2657 (only threw two) Results: Inconclusive. Top end and perhaps lower end of CT spin rates appear down in last few games, but the possible decrease in CT spin does not coincide with the beginning of his struggles. Perhaps abandoning the sticky stuff has made a normal blip into something worse? Limitations: Did not look at average spin in each game, or for each period, because lazy. Did not look at other pitches. He throws other pitches. But he barely throws the CB and 4S and the SI is typically not a spin-reliant pitch. Throws the CT 38.2% of the time and the SI 47.4%. Someone else could look at the other pitches. Maybe you'd see a decrease in SI spin even if he was just using the sticky stuff for command, or maybe he is weird and tries to spin the SI. Next Steps: Look at same data in future games. Someone else might want to look at a bigger sample, his other pitches, and/or his average spin rates per game or per a period.

It certainly suggests something. It doesn't prove it though.

I hope my favourite sporting team can win the sports game this evening