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Laika

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Everything posted by Laika

  1. Laika
    Okay, Doug.
  2. Laika

    NBA Thread

    Laika replied to admin's topic in Other Sports

    I think it's because OG and Scottie Barnes are somewhat redundant
  3. Laika
    Swing man. Probably only in the booth when Buck or Dan can't do a game. With Buck's health they need to stretch Joe out in spring though.
  4. Laika
    ZiPS overcompresses these projections You can almost just add ten wins to the team who will win the division and take ten away from the Red Sox Maybe with the new schedule we see Toronto and the Yankees eclipse 100 wins
  5. Laika
    Saves resources and time in future years Also some benefits to the player so they can just focus on baseball for the next three seasons And a bit of an icebreaker. They've now "done business" successfully together twice. Business relationship generally improved. Now 0.5% more likely to reach common ground on a free agency extension
  6. Laika
    that's the f***ing point dude Bautista could've had a six figure (or near six figure) contract but he was greedy and it cost him most of that
  7. Laika
    Probably a personal-level thing Maybe he reacted poorly to being DFAd and him and his agent soured the relationship Just speculation of course
  8. Laika
    But is OBP is mostly AVG driven. His walk rates are just average.
  9. Laika
    It's an interesting thought problem. It shows how easy it is for people to get fooled by numbers. Most people aren't great at thinking about things in, like, an economically and statistically wholesome way, with weight given to the constraints of the system (scarcity) and what the underlying statistical distribution might look like. You just give people the absolute difference or absolute number, and for most people contextualizing it properly is difficult and they fall short. You see similar problems in health media and public health discourse where the gen pop just struggles on the numbers. And/or the media knows they struggle on the numbers so they take advantage of that.
  10. Laika
    yeah those are fine they are blue
  11. Laika

    NBA Thread

    Laika replied to admin's topic in Other Sports

    And Philly was HORRIBLE for like 5 years. Nobody wants that; you start to bleed fans.
  12. Laika

    NBA Thread

    Laika replied to admin's topic in Other Sports

    Isn't the Celtics quick rebuild kind of just them getting insanely lucky on pick trades? Like, the huge Brooklyn blockbuster netted them 2016 3rd overall (Jaylen Brown) and the right to swap for 2017 3rd overall (Jayson Tatum). There is the entire rebuild. Of course, if some stupid franchise that could legitimately be dogshit soon is willing to trade multiple unprotected firstround picks for all the Raps good players then maybe they should do it but that is not going to likely happen. I feel like most of the teams who take packages of picks for stars end up being a bit let down. And because of trades like the Celtics-Nets one, orgs are more guarded about moving unprotected picks multiple years away. But I'm a moron I barely even watch basketball and don't even follow the sport I can't even name a player on most other teams right now
  13. Laika
    Okay but that's stupid It's like saying the difference between 5'10" and 7'0" (a 20% difference) isn't that significant A player who can hit .300 is so good at getting hits that they can more or less suck farts at everything else on the field and still be good. See e.g. Luis Arraez.
  14. Laika

    NBA Thread

    Laika replied to admin's topic in Other Sports

    "blowing it up" is rarely a viable strategy though, given the nature of the draft and the developmental league like, you just end up with a bunch of repetitive late or mid round first round picks and okay-ish young players... it's not like baseball where you can just stockpile infinite actually good prospects and then hope an elite farm system blossoms for you to "blow it up" in the NBA you need to basically tank and try to draft a franchise cornerstone. I guess.
  15. Laika
    Like, they probably would have given him a three year deal or something right. Hahaha Jose.
  16. Laika
    lol Jose I wonder how much the Blue Jays would have paid him if he were willing to negotiate down
  17. Laika

    NBA Thread

    Laika replied to admin's topic in Other Sports

    As long as Gary Trent leaves town I don't care what else they do
  18. Laika
    but you are kind of missing the point here we are just looking for ways to explain to Crash Davis and jaysblue why "just 20 extra hits" over a whole season is actually a big deal you can't use the obvious measurements like linear weights because Crash Davis does not understand any of that you have to use on-the-field analogies that Joe Average Athlete could track
  19. Laika
    But you can apply different kinds of mental gymnastics here. Say some player gets 30 extra hits in a season. Decent odds that at least one of those will be a huge "game winner" type of hit, right? Suddenly you can think of those "30 extra hits" as "one extra win" or even "two extra wins" And in your head it suddenly weighs more. Of course the player who can lead to one or two extra wins is better! We have just done a double mental gymnastics backflip to a WAR analogy. And we haven't even talked about scarcity. AAA is full of guys who can get, say, 100 hits in 450 at bats. But it's HARD to find guys who can get 120 hits in 450 at bats. 20% more than 5'10" is 7'0" -->
  20. Laika
    And then Bartolo took his rotation spot all one big conspiracy?
  21. Laika
    Bartolo deserved it Santana had 139 career wins and didn't even pitch after 33 Bart had almost 250 wins and pitched 146 innings at 45 years old I think the voters in 2005 could just SMELL the incoming greatness from Bartolo
  22. Laika
    RE Manoah He is kind of the personification of "mound presence". If something like that CAN significantly impact results, you are probably going to see it helping a 6' 6" / 285 guy who pitches angry, throws inside all the time, and is as likely to hit you with a pitch as anyone in baseball. I mean I don't really see much reason for him to be worse than his FIP says he was in 2022.
  23. Laika
    He probably got lucky in 2022 and did not display #1 skills. Expect #2/3 production but be pleased if there is some sneaky reason he has for run prevention that gets proven over time
  24. Laika
    Here is a great idea: Get rid of the competitive balance picks and all other little equalizer things and instead only let the "small market" teams sell ad space on jerseys. That's your economic equalizer. Then the draft is fair again and only teams like the Cardinals get uglier on camera
  25. Laika
    He was hurt though I mean if Baltimore was going to just give him a short rehab and call him up maybe they should and could have done something like put him on the opening day rosters then DL him? Then they remain eligible for the rewards. Haha I have no idea
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