Laika
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Everything posted by Laika
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Yeah, I wasn't even saying that with respect to fantasy baseball. WAR is essentially irrelevant for fantasy, unless you play in some kind of nuanced, nerdy league based on linear weights (I do!). But even with real life baseball, looking at projected WAR for pitchers just seems so silly some times. Like, Steamer has Kershaw, Garza, and Juan Nicasio projected for 192, 192, and 189 innings pitched, respectively. They're not even really trying to project playing time, so looking at WAR is misleading. WAR is just tacked on to the end of the statline because it's what people want to see. That doesn't mean the projections are bad or shouldn't be taken seriously. I just think they get misused.
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So with Coors and Wilin Rosario rolled on top, I'm guessing a 4.5+ ERA. Rosario is a s*** framer, right?
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De La Rosa is a pretty dusty keeper. Steamer is guessing that he'll have an ERA over 4.5, K/BB under 2, and a WHIP over 1.4. Yucky! A guy like Bud Norris projects for marked improvements in every relevant category.
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People need to stop caring so much about projected WAR for pitchers. Look at the rate stats. Steamer is just pulling IP out of its ass.
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FWIW, the blog has never received a single hit from the Philippines or Ecuador
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Yup, pointless deal. If someone is trading you #1 for #2, and asking for you not to pick Abreu, then you KNOW you'd f***ing be getting Tanaka anyway. Oh well!
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Yup
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I don't get it
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Wow, great deal for the young cat
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He's probably one of the bigger buy-low candidates out there.
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Anyone interested in Yovani Gallardo?
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Instant Replay Expanded For This Year
Laika replied to The Cats Ass's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
If an average replay replaces an average manager-umpire argument, then game lengths won't change. -
Breaking Blue: Toronto Blue Jays Blog is live
Laika replied to admin's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
The counterpoint here is that a guy like Rasmus is considered an everyday player because he is just good enough to play against same handed pitching. He might not mash against left handed pitching, but he's a good enough hitter that even when you apply his notable platoon split him vs. LHP is better than what you'd have on the bench. And a guy who is protected against tough same handed pitchers, well, it's for a reason. If he could hit the mediocre same handed pitching with some level of confidence then he wouldn't end up getting protected against the nasty guys. So yes, what you're saying might be a consideration, but at the same time, some of what you're saying is kind of already "taken care of" in the data or in the regression. If a lefty gets guarded against strong same handed pitching, then he'll have less PA against them, so even if his split vs. LHP is artificially high, we'd regress it further to the mean anyway. -
Breaking Blue: Toronto Blue Jays Blog is live
Laika replied to admin's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Small piece on platoon splits, with a table of regressed platoon splits for 2014 Blue Jays, based on Steamer. http://www.breakingblue.ca/2014/01/16/blue-jays-true-talent-offensive-platoon-splits/ -
At this rate, Toronto's optimal course of action might be to trade everybody else and platoon Kawasaki with Steve f***ing Tolleson.
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Cuts can me made early, and we can also shift the deadline a bit to accommodate everyone.
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Let's say, cut down deadline = midnight on the 9th or 16th of Feb, depending on when Yahoo opens.
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Need to know when Yahoo opens first. We will probably have our cut date right around opening, and then our waiver draft a week or two afterwards.
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Like the Dodgers even care.
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You could just roll them into your big league draft on Yahoo. Probably would make more sense.
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Pretty sure Buxton should be a slam dunk
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How's this for a nice litmus test of SV% vs. team influence. Scrivens has like a .980 mark in LA, or something stupid like that. I bet he's under .910 in Edmonton.
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Although, if someone makes their cuts a day or two late then it would be something I'd gave to log in the Tome of Darreldom, and if it becomes part of a pattern of non-participation, then we'd have to feed them to the BBDL and invite Grant to the big leagues.
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Wow, talk about selling low on Dubnyk. His SV% the last three seasons were pretty f***ing solid for playing for one of the worst teams in the league. .916, .914, .920. That's actually a slightly above average SV%, while playing for the f***ing Oilers. And they give him away for essentially nothing 32 games into one bad season, while they're going absolutely nowhere. Idiots.
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A) Probably nothing, especially if they have a decent excuse. It doesn't really hurt the league if someone is a bit late on making cuts. Their roster would be frozen though until they make cuts, and we'd be extra suspicious of them if they ended up making a trade a day or two after making late cuts (the assumption being that they would be waiting for a trade to go through before deciding who to cut). I doubt that will ever happen though. If someone goes AWOL and doesn't make their cuts for a few weeks, we'd probably look for a replacement GM. The subsequent picker would not officially be put on the clock, and a dozen league members would probably immediately tell the fool that they've picked someone ineligible.
