Dr. Dinger

Buerhle's salary this year was $20M, and he'll provide about 2.5 WAR for that. $8M per WAR is the market rate, and a very sound investment when your core players (Bautista, Donaldson, Encarnacion) are on such ridiculously profitable contracts.

It's not a cut and dry issue. As with all budgets, overruns can be approved depending on their utility. This provides a tangible improvement for the stretch run while providing cost certainty next year, I find it very improbable that Rogers would take a hard line on this, especially because they never have before.

Buehrle's contributions have been right in line with his salary, that was a solid contract. It looked large at the time it was signed, but let's not forget that inflation is a thing -- another pro for Shields' deal.

There's no way you're getting either of those pitchers for $20M AAV, or on 4 year deals.

What's the point in discussing this right now? Neither would make it through waivers.

The only salary that Rogers should care about is his remaining prorated 2015 salary, which is less than $3M. There's about $40M coming off the books next season, more than enough to absorb Shields and still manuever.

Dickey's option is pretty reasonable for next year, as a mid-rotation option. Otherwise, there will be plenty of payroll to pursue another FA pitcher in addition to Shields.

How many pitchers were ever as effective as James Shields? Your age cutoff is arbitrary, and I disagree that it's a high risk investment. Even if he's a league average pitcher through 2019, the salary isn't going to murder us.

And of these options, I'd go for Option 1, because I think there's a legit chance the Yankees will put in a claim.

Is it really that scary? He'd basically just become our Buerhle next year and business would continue as usual.

Option 1: Claim James Shields. Option 2: Do not claim Shields and look to work out trade if he passes through waivers. Option 3: Do nothing.

But really, the whole argument is for the additional ~$3M to cover his remaining salary. I seriously doubt Rogers' payroll is so restrictive that it doesn't allow for such a relatively minor unbudgeted expense in light of our position on the win curve and potentially expanded revenues from playoffs and stretch-run ticket sales.

My mitigation strategy in that case is to have the Pads chip in $2-3M or eat Navarro in exchange for a low level prospect.

Most execs skip ahead to the recommendation anyway.

Objective: Bolster current starting rotation for playoff run with minimal impact to 2015 salary or farm system. Requested Budget: 2015: Approximately $2.7M prorated salary (45/162*$10,000,000) 2016: $21M 2017-2019: $0-$58M; player option Pros: - Provides viable SP2 for remainder of 2015 and playoffs (projected 1.2 WAR ROS) - Likely to provide 200 innings at or above replacement level in 2016 - K and whiff rates at career high, predicting success for ROS - Aligns with payroll flexibility for 2016 and beyond - Reduces the need to spend on SP in 2016 free agency - Reduces workload on bullpen ROS - Repertoire predictive of gradual rather than precipitous decline (see: Buerhle) Cons: - Age is concerning (33) - Slight velo drop this season - HR rate has spiked despite playing at favourable park - May opt out of contract after 2016 if market conditions are favourable - May exercise options for 2017-2019 if market conditions are unfavourable Assumptions: - Significant payroll will be cleared heading into 2016 with the departures of Buerhle, Navarro, Romero, Estrada, and potentially Dickey - Payroll cap for 2016 will remain constant or increase - Blue Jays will be a viable contender in 2016 - Padres will place James Shields on revocable waivers - James Shields will pass through waivers or reach Blue Jays waiver position - Padres would like salary relief based on position on win curve - Padres are willing to trade James Shields for minimal prospect return in exchange for salary relief Risks: - Possibility of steep decline would leave the Jays locked into a 3 year commitment on average-to-below-average pitcher from 2017-2019 Mitigation: - Due to increased payroll flexbility in 2016 and beyond, $58M commitment to roughly league average pitcher would not be significantly detrimental to flexbility Recommendation: Claim James Shields when he hits revocable waivers, with willingness to trade non-premium prospects and/or absorb full contract.

Yeah I can see it.

I feel like he's unownable in 12 and 14 team leagues, but possibly interesting in this format despite his incredibly concerning velocity loss. If you dropped him I'd claim him.

But my dossier on you says you love Huston Street.

I'd probably give you any two of my relievers for Betances.

That seems to be a problem for you. Nobody wants to pay up for Betances, apparently.

I would like to trade a closer for a starter. Koji, Street, Jeurys and Ziegler are all on the table depending on the quality of the return.

He's got a better ISO and K rate than Gallo!

Bro, he's slugging .600 in AAA, he's not for sale.

I was so, so, soooo close to cutting him, multiple times.

Dick Shaffer making his debut today! My 3BOTF has arrived.