Dr. Dinger

I'll also just point out that even if McCutchen bounces back to a 6 WAR player for the next two seasons, Quintana's value is superior. If Cutch bounces back to 6 WAR and Quintana loses a whole year to injury, surplus value would be approximately even. [TABLE=width: 641] [TR] [TD]Year[/TD] [TD]$/WAR[/TD] [TD]AM Proj War[/TD] [TD]AM WAR Value[/TD] [TD]JQ Proj WAR[/TD] [TD]JQ WAR Value[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2017[/TD] [TD]$9,000,000[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]$54,000,000[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]$36,000,000[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2018[/TD] [TD]$9,500,000[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]$57,000,000[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]$38,000,000[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2019[/TD] [TD]$10,000,000[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]$40,000,000[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2020[/TD] [TD]$10,500,000[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]$42,000,000[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]Total value[/TD] [TD]$111,000,000[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]$156,000,000[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]Total salary[/TD] [TD]$28,500,000[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]$35,800,000[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]Surplus value[/TD] [TD]$82,500,000[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]$120,200,000[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

You can't really fade him for decline over the course of this contract, he's not old enough for that. A 4 WAR projection for him this year might even be conservative.

Surplus value of pitching prospects ranked #1-10 in baseball is on the order of $70M, $40M for pitchers ranked 11-25. http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/

Even if I believe you and treat McCutchen as a 3 WAR player, Quintana is worth $90M more in surplus value. [TABLE=width: 641] [TR] [TD]Year[/TD] [TD]$/WAR[/TD] [TD]AM Proj War[/TD] [TD]AM WAR Value[/TD] [TD]JQ Proj WAR[/TD] [TD]JQ WAR Value[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2017[/TD] [TD]$9,000,000[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]$27,000,000[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]$36,000,000[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2018[/TD] [TD]$9,500,000[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]$28,500,000[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]$38,000,000[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2019[/TD] [TD]$10,000,000[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]$40,000,000[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2020[/TD] [TD]$10,500,000[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]$42,000,000[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]Total value[/TD] [TD]$55,500,000[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]$156,000,000[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]Total salary[/TD] [TD]$28,500,000[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]$35,800,000[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]Surplus value[/TD] [TD]$27,000,000[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]$120,200,000[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

AFAIK, Shapiro doesn't do player options of any kind. He's all about cost certainty.

Disagree. Cutch is already battling knee problems.

Projected surplus value on Quintana's contract is an absurd $100M.

He's boring AF to me but could provide 15+ WAR on a bargain basement contract. Tons of surplus value, whereas Cutch's value completely tanked. They want Quintana, clearly, but they aren't getting him with Glasnow alone and they won't trade Meadows. They're also cash strapped. Trading Cutch in a 3-way for Quintana makes sense, but clearly they would need to add a piece.

Read your own quote before you post.

I think Cutch is maybe a 3-4 win player now, but probably not. His defense is bad and his speed and batting average have collapsed. In my opinion the difference between 4 years of Quintana at his salary and 2 years of Cutch at his salary is worth a prospect like Glasnow, you are free to disagree. Quintana's projected value is exceptional and McCutchen could easily be a $0 asset now.

That seems like an awfully pedantic correction, but ok.

Quintana had 5x as much WAR this year and is 3 years younger. You are wildly overrating Cutch's present trade value. It's considerably less than Adam Eaton.

Quintana is under control for twice as long, likely to produce more WAR, and allows them to save payroll while also handing the reins to Meadows, who at this point is probably as good as McCutchen. A lot of people also think Glasnow is a reliever.

I'm struggling to see the relevance of your point, if you have one.

I dont know you, but thanks for obsessing over and paraphrasing something I wrote on the internet a decade ago.

Alford and SRF are Top 100 prospects. The Pirates won't deal Meadows to get Quintana.

Quintana is much better than Cutch, not to mention cheaper, younger and under contract longer.

Can I propose a deal? To Jays: Andrew McCutchen To Pirates: Jose Quintana (who they apparently want) To ChiSox: Anthony Alford, Sean Reid-Foley, Tyler Glasnow

By WAR? Sure.

He's gonna hit .360 next year?! Whoa

Inciarte ain't a keeper, kid.

Ben Revere will already be available in the waiver draft, as usual.

Are you not a heterosexual?

Broxton for Moose, let's do this.

Any old jersey is fine, unless it's Arencibia, Romero or Kawasaki. Those are just extremely embarrassing.