The max I'd be giving Arrieta is about 4 years, $70M after the obvious decline & wear and tear he's shown the last two seasons. Since 2015, his FB velo has dropped from 94.6 to 92.1, his SwStr has dropped from 11.1% to 8.7%, his GB rate has dropped from 56.2% to 45.1%, his HR rate has almost doubled. Just massive dropoff across the board, and he'll be 32 before the season starts. Any GM would be truly insane to give him 5 years and 9 figures.