Jimcanuck

A different viewpoint than yours, that's all. You haven't made a good post in months. Anyway its more than Vlad and Bo. Gausman, Bassitt, Berrios, Springer, etc probably not very good 3 years from now. And the cupboard is pretty bare. It's either go for it now or start the rebuild.

Only 2 years of Vlad and Bo left! Time to go big or go home!

And rinse/repeat for the next 20 years? Hello mediocrity! Gimme Hoskins and Bellinger, and let's take a real shot at postseason success. SS - Bo 1B - Vlad RF - Bellinger DH - Hoskins LF - Springer 2B - Biggio/Schneider C - Kirk/Jansen 3B - Barger CF - Varsho

How do you know this?

Yes. Jaysblue is advocating for sitting out this year's market and save the money for next year. This is what I was responding to originally.

You said "sitting out the market".

You answered your own question.

Steamer projections are based on the past 4 years of performance and an aging curve. If it's purely numerical with no manual adjustments, the 2.5 WAR is based in part on a couple of years when Bellinger battled injuries and had to change his swing. I expect the internal projections of MLB teams are quite different, and probably project somewhere north of 3 WAR for Bellinger for 2024.

This may well be part of the reason why, with the exception of Ohtani and Yama, the free agent market has seemed slow this year. The market bakes everything in.

And why would the market price for free agents next year be any lower (likely higher) than this year? In addition, Soto, Bregman, Wheeler, etc might not even be free agents. Or, after the market sets the prices next year, will JB again suggest sitting out and pursuing the 2026 free agents?

Maybe I'm not making myself clear. I'm mainly responding to Jaysblue. And my comments are general, which is why I reference both Bellinger and Soto. They aren't specific to Bellinger. Did the Dodgers overpay for Yamamoto, given the risks of being a short pitcher and unproven against MLB hitters? Most (all?) would say yes. Unless the Dodgers were stupid and misread the market, this is the cost of high upside potential star players. My overall point is that for the Jays to be competitive, they can (1) build a prospect pipeline and supplement with lower tier / risk / and upside free agents (i.e., the Rays method) , or (2) they can pursue and sign higher tier free agents for $$$$$ as a big market team. If the Jaysblue's of the world aren't willing to take option (2) and pay the cost of higher tier free agents such as Bellinger at 8/$190 or whatever, or Soto at 12/$600, then they should trade Vlad and Bo and start rebuilding the farm. I guess the 3rd alternative is doing neither (1) or (2), and just fielding a mediocre team each year by signing guys like Duvall and whoever to fill holes. I remember the 20 years of mediocrity.

The Angels have been absolutely snakebit with free agents. Pujols, Rendon, Josh Hamilton, etc, etc.

And neither will 25 of the 30 MLB teams. At least, not until this stupid system is changed.

True, that's why I wrote "8/$200 or whatever cost"

No of course not. And I don't think he gets 8/200 now, either. My point is that those saying no to Bellinger are simply denying the reality of what it takes to compete in MLB. Soto has a bad bod and will be a 1B/DH in a few years, or even 2024, and be Votto for the majority of the contract. His contract will not be without significant risk.

Yes they do, but my comment is directed to those that suggest not pursuing Bellinger because of the price. If that is the criteria, then you aren't going to pay market price for any free agent, whether it be Bellinger this offseason or Soto next. The risk associated with any free agent is baked into the price. These decisions should be based on team need and availability of salary room.

If the Jays are not willing to sign Bellinger because of the 8/$200 or whatever cost, you can be damn sure the same will apply next year and Soto's 12/$600 ask. And every other free agent. Jays should become a version of the Rays if this is the case.

As I posted earlier, (1) signing Belly and (2) signing Teo or trade for Eloy to be a DH only, would put this team in a good position for possibly the last 2 years of Vlad and Bo.

Define failure

So who plays LF, 3B in 2024?

Jays don't need to sign both Belly and Chapman to be competitive.

No they don't. And I disagree with your suggestion to punt 2024.

Deferred payments count towards the luxury tax

Most surprising part of this offseason is the lack of moves by the Mets

Yeah, NHL has more parity than MLB, NBA, NFL But get the Cup back to Canada already