Jimcanuck

Where is the idea that Barger can't do 3b coming from

Skinny Vlad gonna save the season, just watch. Falafel is just along for the ride.

Or boras overplayed his hand. Got to wonder if there were better offers earlier in the off-season.

I'll be making my picks poolside

Bellinger will easily be worth that contract, and opting out after 1 year is probable.

Yeah I can buy that Bellinger benefited from some luck in 2023 and that the sustainable outcome is a bit less. Or it could go the other way and he increases his EV such that he exceeds the 2023 result. We know he has the talent.

Can't say it was a fluke, dropping the K rate from 27.3% to 15.6% has nothing to do with luck, and everything to do with a change in approach. The question is not one of luck, but whether he can sustain the results as pitchers change strategy etc.

Yeah I am not saying he is at the same level. Altuve is in a class of his own. I can see Bellinger having close to Bregman bat control and putting up similar numbers with more SB and more defensive value. Altuve's 2022 is crazy. 6 percentile EV, 5 percentile HardHit, 164 wRC+

Altuve has always had relatively low EV and Hard Hit. His EV and Hard Hit in 2022 (164 wRC+) were even lower than 2023. Bellinger in 2023 adopted the Altuve plate approach. Stat scouting doesn't tell the whole story. An approach of "don't strike out, put the ball in play, punish mistakes" will generate low EV and Hard Hit.

I have said nothing about salary. Jose Altuve, 5 percentile EV, 10 percentile hard hit%. s*** underlying data.

His EV data is close to the values for Altuve, Semien, Bregman, Bogaerts. These are all guys with low K rates that sacrifice power for contact, but are good hitters that they can punish mistakes. Again, he has made approach changes, he is not the same hitter he was pre-injury.

The 109.7 MPH in 2023 is 2 MPH better than 2021 and 2022. 1 MPH less than 2019 and 2020. No reason why, with the injuries behind him, the MaxEV will increase by 1 MPH to get back to the 110-111 MPH level.

https://www.mlb.com/news/cody-bellinger-interesting-free-agent-case This is one of several analyses that look behind the numbers. You can statscout all you want, but it doesn't remotely tell the whole story, especially for unique hitting talents. Again, he made plate approach changes that explain in large part the reduction in exit velocity and hard hit from previous years. From the link: “He’ll sacrifice some power to put the ball in play,” a scout told Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic recently. “I buy that that’s behind some of the average to lesser exit velocities.” A key point not to be lost here is that Bellinger made far more contact in 2023 than in years past, cutting his strikeout rate from 27% to 16%. Only Ronald Acuña Jr. had a better improvement, and that carried with it some historical context. Since “hard-hit rate” is generally considered to be “of the balls you hit, how many were hit hard,” what if he’s just being penalized for that extra contact? On softly hit balls, the quality of Bellinger’s contact was the second-best of his career, behind only 2019, and there was little to no overproduction or “good luck.” On hard-hit balls, the quality of Bellinger’s contact was better than only his previous two down seasons, and there was considerable overproduction, which is likely where the hustle doubles and poor opposing defense comes in.

Go ahead.

You are being awfully selective and disregarding the significant changes to his plate approach, which explain in part the lower underlying metrics you have concern with. There are articles out there by evaluators smarter than you that discuss it.

Again he doesn't have s*** (your original term) or crap (your current term) underlying metrics. If he did, then 75% of MLB position players are worse than s***.

I understand the game economics very well.

You said he has s*** underlying numbers and you would also sign him for 20 million AAV for 4 years? Something doesn't compute.

LOL, the Halos would be the one adding prospects, and a shitload of them

Bellinger does t have s*** underlying numbers, there is a lot of red on his statcast

Tiedeman for Trout, great idea!

If Jays wait two years, he gone

You guys need to relax, these are the normal little tweaks and discomforts of spring training

Pretty much, TINSTAAPP

Hopefully he has finished eating his way through his signing bonus.