P2F

I could be talked into moving Garrett Richards or Aaron Civale.

I guess that leaves, who, Travis Shaw or Justin Smoak as the best options? Smoak would make a lot of sense if they want to cheap out, which evidently they do.

Tsutsugo to the Rays I can't believe he couldn't get a bigger deal than 2/12. Everyone seemed to think he would get a 4/40 deal lol.

According to Steamer, the Jays currently project for ~75 wins with the Roark addition. Signing Ryu (2.9 WAR) would get them to ~78 and there are so many areas they could feasibly nickle and dime their way to improving significantly. Allow me to demonstrate. Bullpen: Collin McHugh - 2/12 - 6 AAV - 0.6 WAR Craig Stammen - 2/10 - 5 AAV - 0.4 WAR Infield: Cesar Hernandez - 1/6 - 6 AAV - 2.1 WAR Yoshitomo Tsutsugo - 4/36 - 9 AAV - 2 WAR? Other Ideas: Sign one or two of the Alex Wood (1.1), Taijuan Walker (0.9), Jimmer Nelson (0.9), and Drew Smyly (0.9) types as inexpensive depth with plausible upside that could be used in various roles. It's likely that none of these guys project as pure starters going forward, but you limit their innings and utilize them in various roles out of the bullpen (long-men, post-openers, or possibly as mid-to-late inning relief arms). Just sign the two cheapest ones and hope that one of them performs well. f*** off: Richard Urena (0) Breyvic Valera (0.1) Brandon Drury (0.6) Billy McKinney (0.2) Jonathan Davis (0.2) Anthony Alford (-0.1) When you combine everything outlined above, my feelings are that everything here is reasonable and attainable. It's not at all out of reach to move the projected win total closer to 85 by the beginning of the season with Ryu + Tsutsugo + cheap, simple upgrades. And while it's not the expected goal for next season, an 85 projected-win total would give the Jays an outside shot at contending for a wildcard spot if some things break in their favour and they look to add during the season if they find themselves in a favourable position. You have to assume it's going to take ~95 wins to get in. They're honestly not that far off from that mark and, even after a potential series of moves like the ones above, they still maintain their flexibility going forward. And I didn't even mention the prospects that haven't debuted yet, like Nate Pearson. It's also not difficult to envision a few of Bichette (3.2), Biggio (2.2), Hernandez (0.2), Jansen/McGuire (3.8), Giles (1), Roark (1.4), Thornton (1.3), and Anderson (0.8) surpassing their WAR projections to varying degrees. Ryu (4/80), too, if he signs. The team then looks more like this: 1. Bichette, SS (3.2) 2. Biggio, 2B (2.2) 3. Guerrero Jr., 3B (3.5) 4. Gurriel Jr., LF (1.5) 5. Tsutsugo, 1B (2?) 6. Grichuk, CF (1.7) 7. T. Hernandez, RF/DH (0.2) 8. Jansen, C (2.2) 9. Fisher, RF/DH (0.6) BN: C. Hernandez (super-utility type that starts most games, 2.1), McGuire (1.6), Tellez (1.2 lol) SP - Ryu (2.9) SP - Roark (1.4) SP - Anderson (0.8) SP - Thornton (1.3) SP - Shoemaker (1.4) OP - Font (0.4) RP - Giles (1) RP - McHugh (0.6) RP - Stammen (0.4) RP - Bass (0.4) RP - Gaviglio (0.3) RP - Reid-Foley (0.1) RP - Cole (0) RP - Wood (1.1) Plus all the extra noise and contributions from the shuttle and that's roughly an 85-win team that: a. Isn't bogged down by any albatross or super lengthy contracts b. Maintains some payroll flexibility (~$130M payroll by my rough calculations) c. Has Tulo's contract coming off the books soon ($14M this year, 4M next) d. Will get significantly better, organically e. Is deep on the farm and will have waves of talent breaking through every season Honestly, they might even be better off saving a few million and signing a few semi-intriguing relievers to minor league deals and hoping for a couple of surprise seasons instead of signing the McHughs and Stammens of the world, but I digress. This roster allows the team to be competitive on a reasonable payroll while the young core continues to develop and improve to the point that it's a perennial contender. While in some ways it would be a shame to forego the tremendous payroll flexibility they have right now, it sort of renders it pointless to have and brag about if it's not utilized. By the time the young core hits arb, some of these contracts will be off the books and a few of the prospects within the org will have forced their way into the picture. Rinse and repeat. Sustained winning = good times had by all.

Tanner Roark Heads North by Jake Mailhot December 12, 2019 Amidst a flurry of activity surrounding Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon at the Winter Meetings, the Blue Jays bolstered their starting rotation with an under-the-radar free agent signing. On Wednesday afternoon, Toronto agreed to a two-year, $24 million deal with Tanner Roark. The Blue Jays had 21 different pitchers start a game in 2019, the most in the majors. While a handful of these starters were relievers acting as openers, it’s still a shocking amount to work through in a single season. With Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez traded mid-season, there were moments in September when the pitching probables for Toronto were filled with TBDs. After trading for Chase Anderson earlier this offseason, the Blue Jays continued to shore up their thin rotation by adding Roark, and they paid a bit of a premium for his durability. He’s made more than 30 starts in five of the last six seasons, with a stint in the bullpen in 2015 as the lone outlier. And though his innings total dropped to 165 in 2019 after three straight seasons of 180 innings or more, he made 31 starts split between Cincinnati and Oakland. His new pact with the Blue Jays has an average annual value higher than Kiley McDaniel ($10m AAV) or the crowd ($9.6m AAV) projected. With such a shaky rotation, the consistency and reliability of Roark was likely a factor in that slightly elevated salary. For a team entering the later stages of a rebuild, the 33-year-old should provide plenty of volume. Beyond that durability, Roark’s profile is rather average. He had some great years for the Nationals towards the beginning of his career, but his peripherals have deteriorated recently. His primary pitch is a decent sinker that averages 92 mph. A few years ago, he started mixing in his four-seam fastball a little more often at the expense of that sinker. http://blogs.fangraphs.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Tanner-Roark-Pitch-Mix.png With modern batters designing swings to elevate the ball, throwing a few more four-seam fastballs seemed like a prudent strategy. He’s able to generate more whiffs with his four-seamer, but those extra swinging strikes come at a significant price. His groundball rate dropped from 48% in 2017 to just 36% in 2019. All that extra lofted contact has resulted in a huge increase in the number of homers allowed. His home run rate really spiked after being traded across the country to Oakland, as he allowed the same number of home runs as an Athletic as he did as a Red in half the innings. Not only did the usage of his sinker drop to a career low in 2019, but he started throwing his slider a little more often too. Unfortunately, his ability to generate whiffs with his slider fell with more exposure. Batters swung through his slider around a third of the time while he was with the Nationals, but his slider whiff rate dropped to 21.5% in 2019. If he’s open to continuing to tinker with his pitch mix, his curveball looks a little more interesting than any of his other secondary pitches. It’s spin rate sits in the 82nd percentile and possesses excellent vertical movement. For curveballs thrown near the same velocity, it has 4.8 inches more drop than average. That vertical movement translates to a decent amount of whiffs and groundball contact, but he’s only thrown his bender around 13-15% of the time. Paired with his four-seam fastball, his curveball could become a nice weapon for him. His swinging strike rate might not change all that much, but throwing it more often could help him raise his groundball rate a touch and combat his home run problem. Barring any other additions, Roark likely slots in as the Blue Jays’ second starter behind Anderson. They’re banking on a couple of seasons of durability with some potential for upside. His profile seems like it would be extremely sensitive to any changes to the ball, but even if the dragless version continues to be used in 2020, his stabilizing presence in Toronto’s rotation is worth the two-year deal. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/tanner-roark-heads-north/

After passing in the major league phase, the Jays selected Hobie Harris in the MiLB portion of the Rule 5 draft. He looks pretty gross: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/hobie-harris/sa876068/stats?position=P Dany Jimenez was ganked by the Giants in the first round, and Brock Stewart and Danny Young were yoinked in the second. Edit: Jays also lost Jose Espada in the later rounds.

Pete Walker will fix him with his magic fingers.

Rendon to the Angels

Pretty sure this dude is a high-functioning autist, no?

Gerrit Cole to the Yankees for 9/324

Don't shoot the messenger if this is BS, but if this is legit...whoa.

Off the top of my head, he's traded Nick Solak, Taylor Widener, Giovanny Gallegos, Caleb Smith, and the Garrett Cooper in recent memory. Surely there are others if I cared enough to prove a troll be trolling.

I concur! Certainly the best player shorter than me IRL.

Ah yes. Here's Ross demonstrating his ability to speak words. This is a market and the Blue Jays know it - you heard it here first.

How is Dallas Keuchel not good?

I didn't say or imply that the team should be reckless with their acquisitions, Bob. It would absolutely behoove the Jays to get ahead of the game and sign a couple of pitchers from the current deep crop of FA pitchers this offseason, even if they don't think they have a realistic chance of making the playoffs in 2020. To leave it all to next offseason would be poor planning. You can't just expect the stars to align and everything to all into place at the perfect timing. Next year's FA crop of pitchers does not inspire much confidence. They do not need to break the bank to accomplish this. One of Ryu or Kecuhel on a 3-year deal and Lindblom for 3-4 years at a reasonable rate and suddenly the team is in a much more favourable position in future years. Couple those signings with whichever pitchers emerge as legit MLB arms from the group of Pearson, SWR, Kay, Murray, Murphy, Wincky, Manoah, Kloff, etc. and complementary rotation pieces like Anderson, Thornton, Borucki, and Font as a possible opener, and things are starting to look pretty exquisite.

The Jays' offense had the 10th-best wRC+ from July 1 to the end of the season. They're already probably pretty good with the bats. Now is the time to supplement with a few FA infusions. If anyone here has listened to Radio Scouts Podcast in the past couple of months, you've heard me/us preach this countless times. As BTS said, it's not out of the question that a few of their young bats could out-produce their projections and suddenly they're a better team than most thought they would be. It would be egregious to ignore FA this offseason.

We got your Friday afternoon vibes right here! [h=3]Episode 35: Time to Press the Panikkar Button[/h] Dad jokes are great, and John, Alan and Mike were honored by a visit from the great Brendan Panikkar, the other half of Jay Bird Watching. In this episode, John is sure to remind listeners that there's nothing to talk about as we discuss various hot stove topics, irrelevant speculation on Zack Wheeler, Brendan's thoughts on who the Jays should target, front office confidence and much more. https://bit.ly/33VI7Hy

Craig Borden of Jay Bird Watching Podcast joined us last night for our latest episode! https://bit.ly/35DTYvd "In this episode, Mike and Alan are joined by the one and only Craig Borden of Jay Bird Watching (which is a great podcast, very recommend!) while his sidekick Brendan avoids us like the plague. We talk about the not extremely boring and barely noteworthy pickup of AJ Cole and...I honestly forgot what else we talked about, but I'm pretty sure Craig couldn't wait to escape by the end of it." Edit: That's two published episodes in the past 24 hours or so!

Here you go, sir: https://bit.ly/34AWz9j We also have another one being released shortly, possibly as early as later today. Edit is done - it just needs to be published.

It breaks and it's offspeed. If it's his splitter, cool. God, I hate this f***ing place.

I'll discuss with my boy JFL this evening and we'll finalize our keepers then.