Enter the Guillen Number, a measure initially created by Joe Sheehan several years ago. The Guillen Number is simple. The denominator is all runs scored. Just plain overall runs. The numerator is runs scored directly on homers. How reliant is the league on home runs these days? The trend is unmistakable.
http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/guillen-numbers.png
Again, we’re looking at 68 seasons. The third-highest Guillen Number came in 2015, when the league finished at 37.1%. The second-highest Guillen Number came in 2016, when the league finished at 40.1%. The single highest Guillen Number for now is happening in 2017, with the league sitting at 42.6%. In other words, about 43% of all runs are being scored on homers. That’s three out of every seven. While it might not feel like the league is yet all that close to 50%, consider that it was at 33% as recently as 2014. Since then, the Guillen Number has increased by about 10 percentage points. Home runs are taking over team offense. I think most of you already knew that, but perhaps you hadn’t considered it like this.
Because I’m here, I might as well show you what this year’s team-by-team breakdown looks like. Try not to stare too long at the Giants.
http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/guillen-numbers-2017.png
The Blue Jays have scored 51% of their runs so far on homers. They’re the only team at something greater than half, but the Rangers are awfully close. More meaningfully, there have been 1,682 individual team-seasons since 1950. Five of the 10 highest Guillen Numbers are getting put up right now, in 2017. There are an additional three teams from 2016. The highest mark so far belongs to the 2010 Blue Jays, who finished at 53.1%. No one right now is threatening to depose them from the throne, but the league is moving forward as a collective. Again, this year’s league Guillen Number is 42.6%. Three years ago, there was just one team that topped that.
This isn’t inherently a good thing or a bad thing. It’s a matter of taste, and some people like movies for the dialogue, while other people like movies for explosions. Neither group of people is superior to the other, and taste feels like a silly thing to criticize. Just, understand what is presently going on. Offense is back, relative to a few years ago, but that’s happened entirely because of the home run. In the run-production pie chart, the home-run slice is getting wider and wider. Runs aren’t back because of anything else. Manufacturing a run isn’t suddenly back in style. Teams now manufacture their runs with big mighty hacks, and trying anything else can feel borderline futile. Home runs aren’t everything, but they’re closer than they’ve ever been. What that means to you is personal, but it’s something for each of us to grasp.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-era-of-encroaching-dinger-reliance/