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BTS

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Everything posted by BTS

  1. BTS
    Yeah, it's just a pointless exercise. The same factors that are out of the pitcher's control and make ERA unreliable make OPS unreliable.
  2. BTS
    I don't believe I had read anything by Blengino before that Estrada article just now, but it led me to conclude that he's a moron.
  3. BTS
    The only real takeaway from that article is that he gets a lot of IFFBs (typical of extreme FB pitchers) and manages LD well. The rest of the article is stupid. Using a pitcher's OBP and SLG to create an ERA estimator, and then using its proximity to his ERA to argue that his ERA is closer than his FIP to his true talent is lunacy. The ERA was low because the OBP and SLG were low. To question whether the ERA is a skill is to question whether the OBP/SLG was a skill. All that to say, he might induce weak contact. He probably does. But that's not going to turn a 4.9 xFIP into a sub-4 ERA over the long term. No pitcher in history has been that good at managing contact. If you're projecting Estrada at a sub-4 ERA, you're banking on a K/BB skill improvement, a GB skill improvement, or a combination of the two.
  4. BTS
    I don't really see what Melky has to do with this. 3/40 was pretty reasonable for what you would have expected from him a year ago. For Estrada, you can probably count on one hand the teams that would expect to break even on a 3/30 deal.
  5. BTS
    I wonder if there's any chance the Royals keep Gordon. Probably not. Someone will give him a Werth contract.
  6. BTS
    Seriously though, is there a less sexy group of pitcher signings than Volquez, Vargas, and Guthrie? Crazy.
  7. BTS
    He's not in? What's the point of the subforum with no candid JFaS?
  8. BTS
    So basically Estrada has to hope the Royals are looking for another shitbag lol.
  9. BTS
    Probably doesn't change your opinion, but $15.8.
  10. BTS
    How many pitchers in the last 5 years projected for an ERA in the 4.5 range and got 40M? I can think of Jason Vargas getting 4/28 Guthrie getting 3/25, and Scott Feldman getting 3/30. So maybe Estrada gets 30ish if someone is dumn? Do you turn down 1/16 for 3/30? You'd have to not believe in yourself.
  11. BTS
    There's just so much risk there. You'd almost have to know 100% beforehand that he'd decline. If the team has ~30M to spend on two starters and ties half of it up on a guy that every projection system will have with an ERA close to 4.5 would be disastrous.
  12. BTS
    http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25333950/qualifying-offer-set-at-158-million-which-f_2 $15.8M My bad earlier saying 17.
  13. BTS
    Santana was actually good though.
  14. BTS
    I'm curious as to what everyone thinks of Hector Santiago. If he were a Blue Jay, would you offer him 17M? If not, what makes Estrada the much better investment?
  15. BTS
    1/17 is a lot of money. There isn't a recent precedent for a pitcher projected at like a 4.5 ERA getting a contract big enough to turn it down. Not that it can't happen, but there aren't a lot of truly stupid FO's left.
  16. BTS
    Yeah, I probably wouldn't go there. I do think he has a case though with the recent Nolasco/Santana/Jimenez signings. When JAson Vargas gets 4/32, Chen can get a fair bit more IMO.
  17. BTS
    I'm thinking like 4/50.
  18. BTS
    Interested on the cyborg's take on whether Estrada should/will be QO'd.
  19. BTS
    The way I look at it is like this: knowing that they have Lindor, knowing their payroll constraints, and knowing how averse they are to risky long term contracts, if Tulo were a free agent would Cleveland want him at 5/100? I don't even think they'd make a phone call. I really think him at that contract would be of no interest at all to them, let alone at the cost of a legit ace on one of the best contracts in baseball.
  20. BTS
    All things considered, I don't think Tulo is even in the same range of value as Carrasco. You'd probably get a "no thanks" if you offered Cleveland Tulo and his contract for free right now.
  21. BTS
    Yes, but why are you telling me this?
  22. BTS
    Don't forget Alex Cobb! I think we just became best friends.
  23. BTS
    Punching down is in bad taste, champ.
  24. BTS
    I sure hope the True Cards don't become the Cubs of the DDL and go almost 100 years without a title. I'll have to start training my future child from birth to be a great fantasy baseball player so they can bring me glory.
  25. BTS
    STFU North
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