BTS
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I disagree fundamentally with that. There's too much luck involved with 5- and 7-game series to have such a narrow definition of success. Even the best teams of all-time have something like 20% odds of winning the WS when the playoffs start. The Cubs have had a remarkably successful season even if they get swept in round 1. I consider a failed season to be a sub-0.500 season. We're seeing teams shift more towards this model now: aim for 85-90 wins every single year, because if you get in, your odds aren't much lower than the powerhouse with a 97-win team.
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Even if you don't win in scenario 1: if the Cubs repeat this season for the next 7 years but never win a WS and the Indians win this year and then then are mismanaged to also-ran sub-0.500 status for the next 7, which team has the more successful and interesting 8-year stretch? I think it's the Cubs, and it isn't close.
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Orioles Hangout suxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 2016
BTS replied to Boxcar's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
That looks like a terrible group of people. -
GDT - Wild Card Game - Baltimore vs Toronto - 12 WINS TO GO!
BTS replied to FrozenRopes's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Because idiots like Jonn think rape is the appropriate punishment for throwing a beer can and will destroy his social media. -
I don't usually
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Toronto's offence is really bad (if you exclude Donaldson).
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I think Cleveland is easily the weakest AL team. No Salazar or Carrasco, and Kluber isn't 100% healthy. Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin are going to combine for 3 starts.
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Their team graded out as average in DRS and UZR. They don't have one of the league's worst defenses.
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http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=31&season1=2016&ind=0&team=13&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Their biggest problem has been their most obvious problem: their rotation after Hamels and Darvish is a tire fire. They started complete gas cans in more than 60% of their 2nd half starts. I think this would get them in a 7-game series, but they can pretty much hide their biggest weakness in a 5-gamer.
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NL Wildcard GDT - Giants @ Mets - Bumgarner vs Thor - 8:00 PM ET
BTS replied to King's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
My body is ready. -
Don't forget that the Blue Jays led the league in errors committed on Sunday afternoons on the West Coast, so their defense is in serious trouble this series.
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I mean, where are the holes here? C - Lucroy 1B - Moreland 2B - Odor 3B - Beltre SS - Andrus CF - Desmond RF - Choo LF - Gomez DH - Beltran I see 2 superstars, 6 players that are average or better, and Mitch Moreland. I don't really understand how people think that lineup, with Hamels and Darvish staring probably 4 times out of 5, and Dyson, Jeffress, Bush, and Diekman in the back of the pen, is an easy matchup.
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Who thinks they're dominant? Toronto has probably a 50-55% chance of winning. I was responding you using pythag as the basis for the opinion that the series should be an easy win.
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your dumn
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I don't really care what their pythag is, that's not a team anyone can expect to 'handle easily'. Their run differential was hurt by a lot of things: - Fielder playing most of the season with a bad neck - Choo being out most of the year - Darvish being out most of the year - Lewis, Holland, Perez, Griffin et all gas canning it up Now Fielder is gone, Choo and Darvish are back, and only one gas can will likely pitch in the series. Also, they've added Lucroy, Belltran, Gomez, and Jeffress. They're going to throw all star caliber starters out there in 4 of 5 games, and the only weak spot in their lineup is 1B: they're at least average in the other 8 spots. Looking at their pythag and determining that they should be easy to beat is really, really lazy.
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I think the current arrangement hints at them using Hamels and Darvish twice. They're probably reluctant to use Darvish on 3 days rest, but starting with Hamels allows them to get two starts from each, with Hamels and his rubber arm the only one of the two to go on short rest. Or maybe they'll start Perez and Holland again and we can all laugh!
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I don't understand why you'd focus on this when they absolutely dominated teams that were above 0.500. Is that less telling than a 0.500 record against sub-0.500 teams? I don't think there's any information be gleaned from the distribution of their wins, but your homer level has gone from its annoying baseline to off the charts.
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I'm curious about how Texas arranges their rotation. Thursday - Hamels Friday - Darvish Sunday - Lewis/Holland/Perez Monday - ??? Wednesday - ??? They pretty much have to use Hamels on Monday on 3 days rest, because that sets Darvish up for game 5 on regular rest. Would Bannister consider using a gas can for game 4 and Hamels for game 5?
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Texas' 15-13 September/October is evidence that they're doomed, but Toronto's 13-16 is no biggie?
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Yes, but... who cares?
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I remember commenting on this in the GDT. Nobody will criticize him for it, because most managers probably would have done the same thing, but leaving Tillman out there for the 5th inning was not rational at all. I think everyone recognizes that Tillman is a worse pitcher than Givens, Brach, O'Day, and Britton. He managed to get you through 4 innings with a 1-run lead, which meant that he had carried you just far enough that your horses in the bullpen could close it out. Take him out, and let the better, fresher arms finish things off. Everyone is talking about how being a slave to the save cost him, but being a slave to the win is the only reason he was in the extra innings game in the first place. I think we all know that if Tillman gets through 5 and puts himself in line for the W, he was finished.
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Does anyone actually dislike Joe Maddon?
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The reality is that there wasn't going to be a higher leverage situation than going through the heart of the order in the bottom of the 11th of a tie game. Especially when runners were on base. The leverage of that situation dwarfs the leverage of a 1-run save situation. It was a truly terrible decision.
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I feel like you don't really grasp the danger involved with throwing a baseball 90+ mph at someone's head.
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I guess Ned Yost has to wait until 2017.
