I don't think he will break down as badly as some people think. He will slow down but I think he can be passable by the end of the contract on a 5 year term.
I could see AA paying above market and giving him a 5 year deal with an opt out after 3 years or so as a way to get Panda to come here over other destinations, knowing that he may have another big contract in 3 years.
I doubt AA would offer anything less than a 4 year deal and likely offers a 5 year deal. Seems like he doesn't want to play games with fringe players anymore.
At this point the window is now, so if AA lands an upgrade for the rotation, he then has plenty of trade chips to dangle for an infielder or outfielder.
I'm not sure Ken, there is good and bad for both 2015/2016. Personally I think his job is on the line for 2015 in this market. He will put a contender on the field or find a new job.