If they do thats great, but I would be happy if they win 10 of the next 16. If they get to .500 by the end of June they will still be in good shape to make a second half run with reinforcements on the way in Reyes and Santos, and guys like Hutch, Drabek and Perez will be coming back from injury. Lets not forget Stroman who might be able to contribute as well. As for McGowan he is another possibility, but counting on him is like waiting to win the lottery, probably not going to happen.
Other players like Gose will have more seasoning as well and Sierra and Thole offer us some more depth.
If this team gets to .500 by then I don't see any reason why they cannot make a run assuming they are not still decimated by injuries.