TheHurl

Hollon's full PG profile Position: RHP Height: 6-1 Weight: 195 Bats/Throws: R-R Birthdate: Dec. 24, 1994 High School: Woodford County City, State: Lexington, Ky. Travel Team: Kentucky Baseball Club Commitment: Kentucky Projected Draft Round: 1S-2 As recalled in an earlier Draft Focus, Southern California shortstop Chris Rivera was the first player to hold the number No. 1 ranking in the Perfect Game 2013 class rankings. The second player to ascend to the top spot was Kentucky right handed pitcher Clinton Hollon. Hollon, a 2012 Perfect Game All-American, is currently ranked 13th in the PG rankings. Hollon’s top ranking was completely justified back in 2011, as he was touching velocities with his fastball that are only now being matched almost two years later by his peers in the 2013 class such as Kohl Stewart, Carlos Salazar and Hunter Harvey. Pitching for Kentucky Baseball Club at the 2011 WWBA 17u National Championship, Hollon topped out at 96 mph with a hard spinning 79 mph curveball and good overall command and mechanics. He topped out at 97 mph in Lakeland, Fla. at the 2011 East Coast Professional Showcase and came back and threw outstanding at the WWBA World Championship in Jupiter in October, again topping out at 96 mph from a low effort delivery with a potential plus curveball. At that point, however, Hollon was far from a complete pitcher. He was used mostly in relief during the summer and fall and his velocity was of the reliever/showcase variety. Due to the shortness of his outings on the big stages, he also didn’t really have an opportunity to work in different pitches, although he would occasionally flash a changeup and even a rare slider. He even looked like a future reliever, with a thick core and thighs. But in a class that at that point featured literally no one else with a present fastball, Hollon stood out as the top pitcher. The irony is that in 2012, when he dropped the dozen places in the rankings, Hollon was actually a much better pitcher and a better professional prospect. The improvements were across the board and came with the opportunity to start and work deep into pitch counts. Much of the basis for the improvements were based on simple maturation and being a year older. Hollon’s body leaned out and lengthened and he looked to be in tremendous shape. His warm up routines and on-mound demeanor were much more detailed and confident and he looked to be enjoying himself more. And given the chance to start and throw deep into games he showed that he could pitch with a three or even four pitch mix. Perhaps the highlight of Hollon’s 2012 year came in Peoria, Arizona on July 26 pitching for the East Cobb Braves at the inaugural Perfect Game 17u World Series. Here’s the blog I wrote after the game, with a comparison to fellow top prospect and PG All-American Kohl Stewart: East Cobb Braves RHP and PG All American RHP Clinton Hollon threw 5 very effective innings yesterday in a win over the previously undefeated Team Northwest. He was a little shaky at the beginning, working out of a bases loaded no out jam in the first inning, but settled down and only threw 55 pitches in those 5 innings. Hollon's fastball was steady at 92-94 mph, with lots of 94s. He had very good boring life on his fastball when he worked it to the bottom half of the strike zone and will break plenty of bats when he learns to power the ball downhill and inside to right handed hitters more often. He threw a power curveball in the 75-78 mph range that was very good at times and hung up in the zone at others, probably about a 60/40 split. He also threw a couple of 85 mph change ups with very good late life that is a very promising pitch. All in all he showed a maturity on the mound that was very impressive and was worthy of his ranking of the top right handed pitching prospect in the country. I asked an American League cross checker after the game who he liked better, Hollon or Kohl Stewart, as he had seen Stewart, also for the first time, the previous day. He went with Stewart by the slimmest of margins, noting that the 6-3/200 Stewart (who was also 92-94 with a slider that graded out pretty much the same as Hollon's curveball) had the more projectable body and the ball left his hand a bit easier. I went with Hollon by the same slim margin, giving him the edge based on his dramatically improved pitchability over the last year and the better life on his fastball and change up (although this put Hollon at the advantage of having my having seen Hollon pitch 4-5 times previously but not Stewart). So it was a toss up. Both young men have outstanding arms and big futures and are very deserving of their PG rankings and All-American status. Unforunately, Hollon’s season came to an end the next week when he had to be pulled from his appearance at the East Coast Professional Showcase after one inning of work with what was later diagnosed as tendonitis in his elbow. He was forced to miss both the PG All-American Classic and the WWBA World Championship, but the conservative rehab approach seems to have been successful, as Hollon threw outstanding at the 2013 Perfect Game Pitcher/Catcher Indoor Showcase in February and has got off to a solid start in his recently opened high school season. So while the visions of a mid- to upper-90s power right hander that existed two years ago haven’t come to fruition, Hollon is realistically in a better position today than where he was then. He has a true starting pitcher’s repertoire with a 91-94 mph fastball with great life, a power curveball, a very lively changeup and a promising slider that he hasn’t really thrown much. He throws easily and he throws strikes. The future is indeed looking very bright. Perfect Game events attended: 2010 WWBA 2011 Grads or 17u National Championship 2010 WWBA 2013 Grads or 15u National Championship 2010 Ohio Valley Showcase 2010 WWBA Underclass World Championship 2011 Jr National Showcase 2011 WWBA 2012 Grads or 17u National Championship 2011 WWBA 2013 Grads or 16u National Championship 2011 Ohio Valley Showcase 2011 WWBA World Championship 2012 National Showcase 2012 WWBA 2013 Grads or 17u National Championship 2012 17U Perfect Game World Series 2012 Perfect Game All-American Classic Presented by Rawlings 2013 Pitcher/Catcher Indoor Showcase Clinton Hollon (No. 2 Purple) pitches the first two innings against the Maroon squad at the 2012 Perfect Game National Showcase

I hate the guys like him.

I hate high school catchers. They always cost way more than their true worth

Stanford has a huge amount of OF's, not that they wouldn't welcome him back but he won't improve his status. I'd think he'd be an easy sign.

I know I said I hated the Austin Wilson rumours for the Jays early in the season, cause he just doesn't connect enough...but with the 47th pick they probably could go with him and I'd be okay with that.

Are the Rockies going to save enough on Gray to sign a USC QB commit in McMahon?

Kerry Wood just injured his tongue attempting to pronounce Zastryzny

Did they just take "Turd Man".

Knebel pitches this year. Book it.

Very Jays like. Hasn't pitched for long...just started pitching this year. Is all velocity no feel for pitching yet. Very weak commitment to Missou.

I'm going to predict a surprise pick for the 47th and say Chandler Eden for the Jays. Another tough sign guy but maybe they start pooching picks earlier.

I just picture this kid being an arrogant tough sign. Not sure why

Best African American 3B (if you don't count Jackie Robinson's 257 games) is probably Bobby Bonilla...and he played a lot of OF and was awful defensively at 3B.

Okay I don't see them taking Judge and Wilson.

Doesn't Austin Wilson scream a Yankee pick

Rays will let him walk if his demands are too high...but they have such a good relationship with Boras

Dustin Peterson is one that I see that should be there that I know they visited.

I just have more subscriptions than most (not Ace who has the same). I don't know high school guys really outside of what I read and I only saw about 30 college games this year after watching several hundred in the past years. We all just have our guys/sites that we read and trust and watch a little video.

Finding out Reynolds was on the broadcast makes me even more sad that I missed so much of it

KC going to still get Stanek with their next pick after saving money with Dozier?

so far behind...just catching up. Everything I heard this morning was correct and we took bickford. I'll scan back and see reaction to it when I get a chance. Broke my f***ing nose tonight I think...so I'm pretty sore and bleeding still

an updated formula for expected BABIP. Traditional xBABIP would be xBABIP = 0.392 + (LD% x 0.287709436) + ((GB% – (GB% * IFH%)) x -0.152 ) + ((FB% – (FB% x HR/FB%) – (FB% x IFFB%)) x -0.188) + ((IFFB% * FB%) x -0.835) + ((IFH% * GB%) x 0.500)

Sickels updated with the Gammons rumour that the Rockies have a deal in place with Smith. I can believe his top 6 as the Twins never waiver from their pre-draft deals. I can't see Boston letting Moran past them. I really think Bickford is a our pick. Stanek dropping to 15 just doesn't work for me either. I can't see him signing if this happens. Maybe Stanek at 8 and Bickford to Jays. Ball drops to the DBacks. 1) Astros: Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford: In this universe, the Astros come to agreeable terms with a Mark Appel willing to start his career with his hometown team now that he has a Stanford degree under his belt. 2) Cubs: Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma: Lots of gnashing and teeth grinding in the hours leading up to the draft, but in the end the Cubs go with Gray. 3) Rockies: Dominic Smith, 1B, California HS: A beamquake strikes Draft World, upsetting the balance of expected reality. Smith agrees to a slightly below-slot deal, freeing up cash for the Rockies later in the draft. 4) Twins: Kohl Stewart, RHP, Texas HS: The Twins think about Bryant as a long-term replacement for Justin Morneau, but in the end can't resist the allure of Stewart's arm. The multiverse tries to right itself. 5) Indians: Kris Bryant, 3B, San Diego: It is hard to see Bryant falling any further than this. 6) Marlins: Braden Shipley, RHP, Nevada: The Marlins reportedly have a long-standing interest in Shipley. 7) Red Sox: Clint Frazier, OF, Georgia HS: The Red Sox are rumored to be looking at a bat, with Frazier and Austin Meadows at the top of the chart. Moran is still available in this universe and might be a compromise pick. 8) Royals: Phil Bickford, RHP, California HS: Although the big-league team is short on hitting and Moran might be attractive on paper, pitching is said to be Kansas City's focus, with Phil Bickford a better long-term option than Ryne Stanek and his hometown connection. 9) Pirates: Reese McGuire, C, Washington HS: McGuire is repeatedly linked to the Twins at 4 or the Pirates at 9. In this universe he ends up in Pittsburgh. 10) Blue Jays: Trey Ball, LHP, Indiana HS: I've been slotting Ball to the Jays for a couple of months now and he still fits here. 11) Mets: Colin Moran, 3B, North Carolina: The Mets are said to want a college bat. Here's a good one. 12) Mariners: J.P. Crawford, SS, California HS: Positional scarcity helps make Crawford's case. 13) Padres: Austin Meadows, OF, Georgia HS: Hard to see him fall further than this. 14) Pirates: D.J. Peterson, 3B, New Mexico: This has been rumored for weeks and is still valid under this scenario. 15) Diamondbacks: Ryne Stanek, RHP, Arkansas: The most logical choice if the Dbacks want a pitcher. 16) Phillies: Ian Clarkin, LHP, California HS: The Phillies like left-handed prep pitchers. 17) White Sox: Chris Anderson, RHP, Jacksonville: He's big and he throws hard, qualities that the White Sox like. 18) Dodgers: Rob Kaminsky, LHP, New Jersey HS: Some scouts consider him the top prep lefty in the draft. I can see him going higher than this. 19) Cardinals: Alex Gonzalez, RHP, Oral Roberts: He's been moving up boards and seems to fit the Cardinals mold. 20) Tigers: Jonathan Crawford, RHP, Florida: His stock hasn't dropped as much as you might think despite his erratic spring. 21) Rays: Tim Anderson, SS, East Central Mississippi CC: Consensus sees him not getting much further past this. 22) Orioles: Hunter Renfroe, OF, Mississippi State: He could easily go 10 slots higher than this. 23) Rangers: Hunter Harvey, RHP, North Carolina HS: Many, many good options here, but I'll have the Rangers go with Harvey's upside and genetics. 24) Athletics: Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana State: He will go much earlier than this if his medical reports are OK, and later if they aren't. We'll compromise and put him here. 25) Giants: Matt Krook, LHP, California HS: Somewhat raw but moldable, and local. Seems like a perfect fit. 26) Yankees: Eric Jagielo, 3B, Notre Dame: Lots of mocks put Kaminsky here but in this universe he's already gone. Jagielo has one of the best bats still available. 27) Reds: Phil Ervin, OF, Samford: If this happens, it could be a huge bargain as Ervin has one of the most complete skill sets around. 28) Cardinals: Devin Williams, RHP, Missouri HS: Matched-set with a polished college arm at 19. 29) Rays: Nick Ciuffo, C, South Carolina HS: Will they have more luck with a high school catcher this time? 30) Rangers: Cody Reed, LHP, Northwest Mississippi CC: Another rumored interest. 31) Braves: Josh Hart, OF, Georgia HS: Loud and hard-to-find tool (speed), check; from Georgia (check); Braves rumored to be after hitting (check). 32) Yankees: Marco Gonzales, LHP, Gonzaga 33) Yankees: Billy McKinney, OF, Texas HS: Working with the diversity idea, this gives the Yankees a refined college bat in Jagielo, a refined college arm in Gonzales, and an excellent prep bat in McKinney.

xBABIP = (( GB – IFH ) * (GB-IFH constant) + (FB-HR-IFFB) * (OFFB Constant) + LD * (LD Constant) + IFH + BUH ) / (GB + FB + LD + BU + – HR – SH)

I'm not skilled at this. I'm also not around to update the picks as they go. I give any of the other admin permission to keep the first post updated. Either that or let someone else start it over and we'll delete this one???