Base Theft Crackdown: How the Blue Jays Are Silencing the Running Game

Stealing bases has always been one of the most thrilling aspects of the game of baseball. The mind games going on between the baserunner and the pitcher are fascinating. Picking the right pitch to run on is an art, and just the threat of being a menace on the bases can sometimes be enough to get in a pitcher's head and make him forget about the batter at the plate and serve up a meatball. 

There is also a reason Major League Baseball instituted several rule changes before the 2023 season in an effort to increase stolen bases. MLB introduced the pitch clock to the game, severely limited defensive shifts, and brought in larger bases, increasing the bags from 15 inches on all sides to 18 inches. Well, it worked. League-wide stolen bases jumped from 2486 in 2022 to 3503 in 2023 and 3617 in 2024. It's safe to say that the league has to be happy with the results.

With that being said, Rob Manfred and company must not be thrilled with Alejandro Kirk and the Toronto Blue Jays this season.

On the offensive side, things are going well. Through 49 games this season, the Blue Jays have 32 stolen bases. Andrés Giménez leads the way with nine, George Springer is next with six, and each of Bo Bichette, Myles Straw, Ernie Clement, and Tyler Heineman (!!!) has stolen multiple bases. The Jays are currently on pace for 106 stolen bases, which would be their highest total since 2013 when Rajai Davis and his 45 stolen bases led the charge.

Yet, the Blue Jays have really excelled on the defensive side. In terms of runners caught stealing this year, their 16 are tied for second in the major leagues. They were tied for fifth in that category in 2024 and 21st the year prior. If their current pace holds, the Blue Jays will have their first 50 caught stealing season since the turn of the century.

The wild thing about all this is Kirk and Heineman aren't necessarily known for their arm strength. Kirk’s average arm strength of 79.2 mph has him ranked 35th out of all qualified catchers, and Heineman’s 75.5 mph is much lower than that. In fact, the catcher with the best arm in the organization is Christian Bethancourt, who in 2024 averaged 85.3 mph with his arm. He’s currently in Buffalo.

So the question becomes, how are the Blue Jays having so much success throwing out baserunners? Is it just luck or small sample noise? Maybe, but you also have to be good to be lucky, and the Blue Jays catchers are doing some good things.

Let's take Kirk as an example. In 2024, he took his first real jump in preventing stolen bases. Heading into the season, Kirk met up with bullpen catcher Luis Hurtado and came up with a plan to better control the running game. This involved adding weighted balls into his throwing program. He’d throw several reps with a ten-ounce, six-ounce, and four-ounce ball before starting his usual throwing program. It's safe to say it worked. Kirk threw out as many runners in 2024 (27) as he had in 2022 and '23 combined.

Kirk's improvements go beyond his arm. His average pop time (which takes into account a catcher's footwork and exchange, as well as the velo on his throw) has also gotten better. Here’s a look at his career numbers:

Pop time data via Baseball Savant. Updated on May 21, 2025.

In this case, the lower the number, the better. Kirk's average exchange time is roughly the same as it was in 2023 and '24, but his arm strength has significantly improved. It's likely his footwork behind the plate has also played a part in this as well. Add it all up, and Kirk has thrown out nine of the 30 baserunners who have attempted to steal against him.

Tyler Heineman has also held his own behind the plate. His 75.5-mph average throw puts him among the bottom 10 on Statcast's catcher arm strength leaderboard. But where Heineman really excels is with his pop time and exchange time. Let's take that previous chart and add Heineman:

Pop time data via Baseball Savant. Updated on May 21, 2025.

Heineman has always had this skill throughout his major league career. His 0.54 exchange time is currently the best among qualified catchers on the Statcast leaderboard. This helps explain why he’s successfully thrown out seven of the 12 baserunners who have attempted to run against him. It's good stuff.

But throwing out baserunners has to do with more than just catcher arm strength, exchange speed, and pop time. Most savvy baserunners will tell you that stolen bases are stolen off the pitcher, not the catcher.

The Blue Jays pitchers have done a notable job controlling the running game, too. Here is a chart comparing how their pitchers have controlled the running game this season compared to last:

Data via Baseball Savant. Updated on May 21, 2025.

There is a lot to unpack here, but I want to draw your attention to two key points. The first one is the “Net Bases Prevented” stat, which Baseball Savant describes as the number of "advances prevented and outs added assigned to the pitcher." In 2024, the Blue Jays were the second-worst team in baseball with -19. So far in 2025? They’re 14th, right in the middle of the pack.

The other number that stands out is their average "Lead Distance Gained," which is the average distance that opposing runners have advanced from the start of the pitcher's delivery to pitch release. As you can see, baserunners aren’t getting as big of leads off of Blue Jays pitchers this season. That's particularly impressive considering left-handed pitchers (who naturally face first base from the mound) have pitched a lower percentage of Toronto's innings this year.

Simply put, the Blue Jays pitchers have been better at keeping runners close. The table below shows the average "Lead Distance Gained" against each qualified Blue Jays pitcher between 2024 and '25:

Data via Baseball Savant. Updated on May 21, 2025.

Two of this offseason's biggest signings, Jeff Hoffman (+0.3) and Yimi García (+0.4), have also seen this number improve in 2025. One reason for this might be how often Kirk has been throwing behind runners at first base this year. Maybe that shows up on other teams' scouting reports when they come to play the Blue Jays.

One thing is for sure: The Blue Jays' catchers and pitchers have improved at controlling the running game.

The Blue Jays are still far from a complete team, but for a team that hasn’t been scoring as many runs as they would like to, improving their run prevention will help them win more ball games. Every time you earn an extra out on the bases and/or prevent the other team from moving up a base goes a long way. Even if that means upsetting Rob Manfred and his new rules just a little bit.