Addison Barger Is Off to a Slow Start, but He’s Showing Signs of Improvement

Aside from a (glorious) three-game blip at the end of last week, the Blue Jays' offense has been starving for power since the outset of the season. Even with the offseason acquisition of Anthony Santander, the consensus around the roster coming into the year was that the offense was going to be a weak spot, specifically when it came to hitting home runs.

Now, even those who were lowest on the lineup didn’t expect the Jays to be dead last in baseball with just 25 homers more than a month into the season. In all fairness, I think you’d be hard-pressed to find experts who don't believe the Jays will pick up the pace and find themselves more in line with the major league average by the end of the season. Still, it’s clear that the formula of relying on Santander and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to hit all of the team’s homers while everyone else tries to string hits together is not working. 

There’s been no shortage of opportunities for other players to prove to John Schneider that they can be the missing piece that brings the threat of extra-base hits with them to the plate, but to this point, nobody has taken the opportunity and run with it. Ernie Clement's .480 OPS across 92 plate appearances would likely make him unplayable if it weren't for his typically slick fielding at multiple infield positions. Meanwhile, after strong springs to get them on the Opening Day roster, Davis Schneider, and more recently, Will Wagner and Alan Roden, played their way down to Triple-A Buffalo, making way for Addison Barger to get some recent run as pretty close to an everyday player. 

In 39 plate appearances, Barger has yet to separate himself from his flailing peers in any meaningful way as far as results go, picking up just five hits. But if we dig a little deeper, there are some encouraging signs to indicate that some offensive production could be just around the corner.

It’s been known for a few seasons now just how tooled up Barger is. He has the second-highest maximum exit velocity of any Blue Jay this year at 112.5 mph, and he swings the bat as fast as anyone. He is also an above-average runner and has one of the more impressive arms in baseball from both the outfield and the infield.

Recognizing all of his loud tools, towards the end of 2024, the Blue Jays gave Barger a fairly extended opportunity to cement himself as a key piece of this team moving forward. Barger squandered it, as he finished the season hitting below .200 with a 26.7% strikeout rate. His poor big league performance in 2024 was a big factor in his starting in Triple A this season, but in a small sample since his call-up, 2025 Barger looks to have made some important changes to his offensive approach.

In 2024, Barger was far too jumpy at the plate. Eager to show off his bat, he chased a very poor 31.5% of the time, leading to an inflated strikeout rate and deflated walk rate. Worse, the frequency with which he swung outside of the zone had a serious impact on his quality of contact. Despite his ability to hit baseballs in excess of 110 mph, Barger had an average exit velocity well below major league average at just 88.3 mph, very likely related to the number of pitches he was making contact with that were not in the strike zone.

Coming into 2025, addressing his chase rate was one of the most important things Barger needed to do to overcome the “showcase player” tag given to those with loud tools that can’t seem to find their way into games. And so far, in a very small sample, he’s done exactly that.

Between last year and this year, Barger has gone from well below to well above league average in chase percentage, currently sitting at just 20.8%. Addressing this seems to have led to better peripherals in a number of other areas, including his strikeout percentage, which is now below 18%, and his average exit velocity, which has jumped nearly five points to 93 mph (that’s just 0.1 mph less than Vladdy!).

Because of how hard Barger is able to hit the baseball, he’s a threat to do damage whenever he’s at the plate, but despite taking steps in the right direction, he’s yet to do the most important thing: turn his tools into results. He has an OPS in the .400s and has yet to leave the yard. So far, he simply has not played well enough to help his team win games, and until he does, it doesn’t matter how promising his peripheral numbers might appear.

As a part of the Blue Jays lineup, Barger possesses the key that could unlock some of the damage this team has been so desperately searching for. Yet, every day he plays without putting it all together, his leash in the big leagues gets a little bit shorter as the Blue Jays continue to hunt for power.

Stats in article updated prior to games on May 7.