How Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Complicates the Blue Jays' Offseason

[Bryan Jaeger]

It’s not a common statement to say that a $500 million face of the franchise will complicate a team’s offseason plans. Usually, the talk is, “How do we build around our best player?” However, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. shockingly fell off at the plate this season. He slashed .260/.332/.356 with nine home runs, 72 runs, and 57 RBIs. These statistics were some of the worst output since his rookie campaign in 2019. Also, his 95 wRC+ marked the first time in his eight-year career that he finished below league average.

The nine home runs also tied what he hit during the 2020 shortened season, when he had 366 fewer plate appearances. It was a mind-blowingly awful season for Guerrero by his standards, with a career-worst barrel percentage (6.9 percent) and his second-worst hard-hit percentage (44.3 percent). He didn’t even hit his first home run at Rogers Centre until September 13.

Vladdy dealt with multiple minor injuries throughout the season, including lower back tightness and wrist issues, which can hamper the rotation a hitter needs to swing. However, if it were a mechanical issue, you’d think the Blue Jays' coaching staff would have found a fix.

Since they didn’t find a remedy, it makes you think it could be mental, and MLB.com's Keegan Matheson reported that general manager Ross Atkins backed that view. Atkins said Guerrero lost his confidence early in the season because his rhythm and timing were off. Baseball is an extremely mental sport, so if a player loses confidence, it could derail a season, as we saw.

Guerrero’s lack of production puts a huge question mark on how the Blue Jays operate this offseason. If he’s his normal elite self, the team needs to pursue just one big power bat. That’d give the batting order three solid bats, including Kazuma Okamoto.

They also have Anthony Santander, who should be healthy next season, but Toronto can’t put their faith in him staying healthy or performing at his previous level. He’s a player I wonder if the team could move on from. However, his expensive contract will likely be hard for another team to want to take on. If a trade could be made, it’d be a dead-money-for-dead-money deal.

Atkins will need to decide whether he can get away with signing only one power bat, or if he needs to add two. The Blue Jays can’t finish last in runs and home runs again if they want to return to the postseason. The main factor in how the team proceeds is whether it expects Guerrero to bounce back.

That’s where things get complicated, because the coaching staff doesn’t seem to know how to fix the franchise’s highest-paid player. Toronto can’t afford to see a repeat performance from Vladdy without enough bats to pick up the slack. However, adding multiple bats will take money away from improving another aspect of the team.

Best-Case Scenario

Vladdy returns to form, giving the Blue Jays a solid middle of the order with Okamoto and an offseason acquisition. That acquisition could be Seiya Suzuki. However, it’s a little scary how every media platform talks about how much sense the former Chicago Cub makes in Toronto. The team needs a corner outfielder, and Suzuki brings a consistent bat to the lineup, slugging at least .470 over the last four seasons.

He also has a connection to Okamoto, having played against him in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and with him in this year's World Baseball Classic. I wrote about an ideal offseason in which Suzuki is priority number one, but Blue Jays fans had their hearts ripped out the last few offseasons when it came to the top offensive free agent. The team was among the finalists to sign Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and Kyle Tucker, only to see them sign massive contracts elsewhere. If the same happens with Suzuki (although he won’t sign as big a contract), fans may view the offseason as a failure.

He will cost them their second- and fifth-highest picks in next season’s draft, though, because he’s expected to decline the Cubs' one-year, $23.15 million qualifying offer by the November 17 deadline. Plus, Toronto will have to give up $1 million from its international pool. These penalties stem from being a team that paid the competitive balance tax this season.

Worst-Case Scenario

The good news is the Blue Jays have around $100 million to spend this offseason. If they don’t think Guerrero will bounce back, they have the money to add a second big bat. The bad news is, to do so, they’ll need to be aggressive and spend another $15-20 million annually, and the offensive free agent market is extremely weak.

Besides Suzuki, Randy Arozarena and Brandon Lowe stand out as big bats that could substantially improve Toronto’s lineup. However, adding a second qualifying-offer-rejecting player would require giving up their third- and sixth-highest draft picks. That’s a significant penalty to lose four draft picks. Especially since the team has suffered a penalty the last two offseasons after signing Santander and Dylan Cease, who rejected their qualifying offers.

These circumstances make adding two players who declined qualifying offers highly unlikely. If I were in Atkins' shoes, I’d only try to sign either Suzuki or Arozarena. The drop-off to the next tier of players is far more drastic in the outfield. The next group consists of Ian Happ, Taylor Ward, or Trent Grisham. These players don’t offer much more upside than Nathan Lukes, or a healthy and productive Santander and Addison Barger.

The drop-off from Lowe in the infield is Jazz Chisholm Jr., Gleyber Torres, and Luis Arraez. All three players bring different skill sets and would be an upgrade over Ernie Clement. According to Spotrac, these three should also cost around $4-6 million less annually than Lowe. Plus, they don’t have a qualifying offer attached.

Another consequence of not trusting Guerrero to bounce back is that the money the Jays might spend on a second bat could have gone toward bolstering the pitching staff instead. It doesn’t make sense for the Blue Jays to open the checkbook wide enough to pursue Tarik Skubal. Instead, they could pursue the next top options: Michael King, Freddy Peralta, or Sonny Gray.

It’s no secret the Blue Jays would be a better all-around team if Guerrero returned to his productive form next season. However, there’s no telling whether he can bounce back or not until the season gets going. That’s why his baffling season complicates Toronto's offseason plans. The front office faces a difficult question: who to pursue. Luckily, Atkins has never been shy about spending money or making a big move. He's loved making big trades in the past, so watch for the possibility of him doing it again.

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[Terry Mesmer]

I reject the premise of the article. Regardless of Vlad, 2B and LF are desperately in need of an upgrade. The boost in value doesn't need to be all slug; it could be a combo of OBP, defence, and speed (see Milwaukee Brewers).

[Bryan Jaeger]

2 hours ago, Terry Mesmer said:

I reject the premise of the article. Regardless of Vlad, 2B and LF are desperately in need of an upgrade. The boost in value doesn't need to be all slug; it could be a combo of OBP, defence, and speed (see Milwaukee Brewers).

The premise isn't the Blue Jays have to add slugging although it's ideal. It's if the Blue Jays don't believe Vlad can return to form then they need a second top hitter that'll cost a lot and take money away from getting an exceptional pitcher.

Suzuki or Arozarena can outdue Springer's production, but if Vlad struggles again, Toronto can't go another season without at least a third bat that can post big numbers. Chisholm or Torres as upgrades at 2B will cost $14-20 million annually. That's a good portion of money that could go after a good starting pitcher or reliever.

If Vlad is posting 25 HRs and 80 RBIs then the Blue Jays could take a chance on someone like a Mauricio Dubon who's 73 RBIs was an anomaly that may not be repeated. However, he will cost at least half of the other 2 and still be an upgrade over Clement. The middle infield free-agency market is extremely thin otherwise, especially quality discount options.

Looking at the Brewers, they had 4 players hit 18 HRs or more, the Blue Jays had 1. The Brewers also had 5 guys hit 60 or more RBIs (6 if you include Yelich who hit 59 while only playing 118 games), while the Blue Jays only had 1. Having Andres Gimenez as your 2nd highest RBI guy is not a recipe for success as we saw.