You Can Only Pick One: Gausman, Scherzer, or Bieber?

[Leo Morgenstern]

Earlier this week, Mike LeSage wrote about all the familiar faces on DiamondCentric's list of the top free agents. It got me thinking about three of them in particular: All-Star starters Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, and Max Scherzer.

The Blue Jays' priority this winter will be upgrading an offense that finished last in MLB in runs and home runs. However, Ross Atkins will also look to lengthen a starting rotation that weathered more than a dozen IL stints in 2026.

With Scherzer, Bieber, Patrick Corbin, and Jameson Taillon soon to hit free agency, the Jays will be short on proven big league arms. Dylan Cease, José Soriano, and Trey Yesavage make a strong top three. Hopefully, Cody Ponce will be healthy and ready to slot in as the No. 4 next March, but even he is a question mark. And after Ponce, the question marks only get bigger. Spencer Arrighetti. Ricky Tiedeman. Bowden Francis. Jake Bloss. Chad Dallas. That's a lot of depth, but it's still not enough, especially since José Berríos will be out recovering from his Tommy John surgery until mid-season. 

So, there's a high likelihood the Jays will add at least one experienced MLB starter this winter. It could be someone we've never seen in Blue Jays blue before. It could be an old friend like Chris Bassitt or Robbie Ray. But just for fun, let's say it's going to be someone who pitched for Toronto in 2025 and '26. If that's the case, should it be Gausman, Bieber, or Scherzer? I think you could make a compelling case for all three.

The Case for Kevin Gausman

If I were betting on one of these pitchers to have the best season in 2027, Gausman would be the easy choice. I wouldn't be shocked if Bieber turned in a sharper performance, but the odds are stacked against him, considering he hasn't pitched a full season since 2022. 

Gausman is Mr. Reliable. He made at least 31 starts in all five years of his $110 million contract, and he hasn't been on the injured list since 2019. By ERA, 2026 was his worst season since that injury-plagued 2019 campaign. However, his peripheral numbers were as strong as ever.

In short, Gausman is easily the most valuable of these three pitchers. Indeed, of anyone available on the free agent market, I think he might be the best bet to give a team 30-plus above-average starts. 

The question is whether that's the kind of player the Blue Jays want to spend their money on. Gausman will be seeking an annual salary near $20 million and at least a two-year commitment. That's significantly more than Scherzer or Bieber will command. Now, I'm not saying the Jays can't afford to re-sign Gausman. Of course they can. But even Rogers' money isn't infinite, and Ross Atkins might prefer to direct more of his resources toward the offense. 

So, whether or not Gausman makes sense depends on how confident the Jays are in their internal starting pitching options. After the season we just lived through, I would happily welcome Gausman back in 2027. But if you have more confidence than I do in guys like Ponce, Arrighetti, Tiedemann, and Berríos, I can understand why you might see Gausman as superfluous.

The Case for Max Scherzer

Scherzer battled through numerous injuries to give the Blue Jays 35 starts across his age-40 and 41 campaigns. He was far more valuable to the team than his 9-14 record, 5.46 ERA, and 0.7 fWAR would have you believe. Not only was he beloved within the clubhouse, but he quickly connected with the fans, who were thrilled to watch a legendary pitcher polish his Hall of Fame resume in Toronto. Scherzer has not yet confirmed that he'll try to play in 2027, but if he does, he can continue compiling counting stats. Most notably, he has a good shot at moving up a few more spots on the all-time strikeouts list. 

At this point in his career, Scherzer's ceiling is much lower than Gausman's or Bieber's. In terms of on-field production, he really only offers depth. However, for the reasons I laid out above, he's worth more than just his numbers. The Jays can find the kind of production they might be hoping to get from Gausman or Bieber somewhere else, but there aren't any other free agents quite like Scherzer.

Furthermore, Scherzer and the Blue Jays could do something similar to what they did last winter, when they stayed in touch throughout the offseason but didn't officially sign a contract until the Jays knew they needed extra depth. Such an arrangement would benefit Scherzer, who might not be capable of pitching a full season at 42, and the Blue Jays, who wouldn't have to make space for him on the roster right away. 

Signing Scherzer probably only makes sense if the Jays also sign another free agent pitcher, or they're far more confident than we realize in the arms they have at home. Still, there's no such thing as too much pitching depth, and I really want to see Scherzer pass Verlander in career strikeouts. 

The Case for Shane Bieber

In some ways, Bieber is the compromise candidate between Gausman and Scherzer.

From 2019-22, Bieber pitched to a 2.91 ERA and 16.0 fWAR in 93 games. He made two All-Star teams and earned Cy Young votes in three of those four seasons, highlighted by a unanimous victory in 2020. At his best, he can lead a rotation just as capably as Gausman. 

Unfortunately, injuries have thrown his career off course. Unlike Gausman, he isn't in a position to seek a multi-year deal or a $20 million salary. Last offseason, he picked up his $16 million player option instead of collecting a $4 million buyout. In other words, he agreed to stay with Toronto in 2026 for a net payment of $12 million. Now, he's coming off another injury-shortened season, and one in which his performance was much worse. I'm not sure he could even command eight figures.

So, with Bieber, you get a player with top-of-the-rotation upside, but his contract could look closer to Scherzer's than Gausman's. That means Bieber is the best target of the three if Ross Atkins doesn't want to spend Gausman-level money on a starting pitcher and he isn't convinced Scherzer has enough left in the tank.

Personally, I'm least interested in bringing Bieber back. I wish him the best wherever he signs, but the Jays already have enough promising question marks. What they need now is the kind of insurance that the injury-prone Bieber just can't offer.

 

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[Mike LeSage]

My love for Gausman is pretty well established, so I'm a 'money be damned, go get him!' thinker when it comes to the potential for a reunion. That being said, I would not be mad to see Mad Max back in Toronto for however many innings he's willing and able to give. 

I've got love for Biebs too, but he's on the outside looking in with this trio.