The Blue Jays' Upcoming Arbitration Decisions

[Leo Morgenstern]

When I wrote about the Blue Jays' arbitration-eligible players last offseason, I sorted them into categories based on the likelihood of each of them being tendered a contract. This year, I would be at least mildly surprised if the Blue Jays non-tendered any of the arb-eligible players on their roster. So, instead of using discrete categories, I've listed this group of eight in order of how long I think the front office will spend considering their merits and shortcomings before deciding to keep them around. Some of them will warrant a real conversation, while others are complete no-brainers.

Salary projections are from MLB Trade Rumors unless otherwise stated.

Josh Smith (Arb 2) - Projected Salary: $3.7 million

Josh Smith was hot for his first few weeks in Toronto, but he fell back down to earth and finished his season with some pretty atrocious offensive numbers (.203 BA, .611 OPS, 75 wRC+). He's a versatile defender, but his glove isn't good enough to warrant a $3.7 million salary if he's going to keep hitting like that. However, Smith was much more productive in 2024 and '25 (.254 BA, .716 OPS, 107 wRC+). The hope that he can return to that level of performance is what's going to convince the Jays to tender him a contract.

Davis Schneider (Arb 1) - Projected Salary: $1.3 million

Davis Schneider had a rough year in 2026. The fact that he spent so much of it with Triple-A Buffalo – where he was clearly too good for the competition – makes me think the Jays didn't have a ton of faith that he could turn things around.

Still, Schneider has two things working in his favor. One: He remains a fan favourite, even if he's starting to lose his shine. Two: He has another option year left. The Blue Jays learned a lot of lessons about the importance of depth this past season. Schneider won't be guaranteed a spot on the Opening Day roster, but spending a little extra dough to keep him around as insurance is worth it. Meanwhile, cutting him would only further alienate a fan base that's already unhappy.

Bowden Francis (Arb 1) - Projected Salary: $1.3 million

Just Baseball put out their own arbitration estimates this year, and this was the one case where the difference between their number and MLBTR's number felt notable. Just Baseball projected a $925,000 salary for Bowden Francis, which is about 30% lower than MLBTR's $1.3 million projection. Either way, I think Francis is worth keeping around – he is optionable starting pitching depth with upside – but the Jays will hem and haw a little longer if they think it will take more than a million to retain him. 

Spencer Arrighetti (Arb 1) - Projected Salary: $1.9 million

The Blue Jays traded for Spencer Arrighetti because they needed innings ASAP. At the same time, they knew he was going to be a long-term project. So, despite his struggles in a handful of August and September outings, I don't see the Jays giving up on him this quickly. Besides, even if he doesn't have a higher ceiling to reach, a sub-$2 million price tag for an optionable innings eater with MLB experience is worth it for a team with pockets as deep as Toronto's.

Ernie Clement (Arb 2) - Projected Salary: $7.6 million

Ernie Clement disappeared in the second half of 2026. Through the All-Star break, Clement was batting .296 with a 109 wRC+. He was the AL's starting second baseman in the All-Star Game (and the AL's top vote-getter!), and that will increase the amount he can expect to receive in arbitration. Yet, post-ASG, Clement hit just .203 with a dismal 36 wRC+. Combine that with his surprisingly poor defensive metrics in his first full season at second, and a non-tender candidate almost starts to emerge. 

Indeed, if you only looked at the numbers without further context, you might question whether the Jays would want to retain Clement for this much money. He ranked among the 10 worst qualified hitters in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ this past season. His xwOBA was dead last. He produced -2 DRS and a -1 FRV at second base. 

The thing is, we're also talking about a player who is only one year removed from posting 3.2 fWAR and 4.3 bWAR in 2025. He is the all-time record holder for hits in a single postseason. And perhaps most importantly, he is utterly beloved by the Blue Jays fan base. The worst-case scenario if they tender him a contract is that the Jays have a slightly overpaid utility player on their roster. The worst-case scenario if they let him go is so much worse. 

Nathan Lukes (Arb 1) - Projected Salary: $2.1 million

In an ideal world, Nathan Lukes plays a little less often than the Jays have asked him to over the last two seasons. Even so, a salary around $2 million is a bargain for a great defensive right fielder who can hold down the heavier half of a platoon. I would keep Lukes around for $2.1 million even if he were just a fourth/fifth outfielder off the bench – and he is significantly more than that.

José Soriano (Arb 2) - Projected Salary: $5.6 million

José Soriano's first 10 starts with Toronto weren't as successful as either party hoped for, but the Blue Jays didn't trade Arjun Nimmala for 10 starts. Soriano should be a key member of the rotation for the next two seasons. Considering his 3.90 ERA and 7.3 fWAR in just over 500 career innings, a $5.6 million salary is far, far less than Soriano would command on the open market.

Louis Varland (Arb 1) - Projected Salary: $3.8 million

There is absolutely no question the Blue Jays will tender Louis Varland a contract. I am curious, however, how much money he'll actually end up making. MLBTR's $3.8 million projection would be a nice chunk of change – it's the highest projected salary for any player with less than three years of service time – but I wonder if Varland will seek significantly more.

In the 21st century, only two pitchers have thrown more relief innings in a season with a lower ERA: Eric Gagné in 2003 and Blake Treinen in 2018. Gagné sought an $8 million salary in his first year of arbitration eligibility the following winter. The Dodgers countered with $5 million – and won – but still, that was a massive raise, especially in 2004. Treinen was entering his second year of arbitration eligibility, and he sought $6.4 million. He won, setting a new record for the highest second-year raise for an arb-eligible reliever. 

Varland's case isn't quite the same as either Gagné's or Treinen's. Gagné won the Cy Young. Treinen had a sub-1.00 ERA. But Varland could have something working in his favour that neither Gagné nor Treinen had: the first-ever BBWAA Relief Pitcher of the Year Award.

As Tarik Skubal proved last winter, if you ask for an unprecedented salary in arbitration, you might get it. So, will Varland ask for a number that better reflects his talent? 

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