Patrick Corbin Can’t Keep Doing This

[Leo Morgenstern]

The Blue Jays needed innings, and no one had thrown more of them over the past decade than Patrick Corbin. It was a perfect fit.

Indeed, with Shane Bieber, Cody Ponce, José Berríos, and Max Scherzer on the injured list, Corbin has been a key addition for the Blue Jays in 2026. His 38.1 innings pitched rank third on the team, behind only Kevin Gausman and Dylan Cease. He has given the Jays a chance to win in all eight games he's started, and he's helped to preserve a bullpen that's been called upon heavily early in the year. The southpaw owns a perfectly respectable 4.23 ERA, and the Blue Jays are 4-4 in his eight appearances.

Yet, I can't help but worry that the other shoe is bound to drop. And I don't know what the Blue Jays are going to do when it does.

Corbin doesn't look like a pitcher who should have a league-average ERA. His last great season was in 2019. Over the next six years, he pitched to a 5.41 ERA. He struck out his opponents at an 18.2% rate and induced grounders on 44.2% of his batted balls. That's an 18.2% K-rate and a 44.2% groundball rate. Those are the numbers that resulted in a 5.41 ERA. Keep that in mind. 

So far in 2026, his strikeout rate is down to a career-worst 15.0%. Similarly, his groundball rate is down to a career-low 37.1%. Those aren't the numbers of a pitcher who should be able to maintain an ERA under 5.00. Heck, I'm not sure I'd trust someone with those numbers to post an ERA under 6.00. Baseball Savant and Baseball Prospectus agree with me. Despite his 4.23 ERA, Corbin owns a 6.41 xERA and a 5.97 DRA. 

Indeed, he is showing all the classic warning signs of a pitcher whose numbers are too good to be true. His home run-to-fly ball ratio from 2020-25 was 15.9%. This year, it's a career-low 9.5%. Meanwhile, his left-on-base rate is currently 77.6%, compared to a 69.0% average over the previous six seasons. And though you may look at his .331 BABIP and think "that's awfully high," it isn't actually anything out of the ordinary. His BABIP from 2020-25 was .327, and considering all the groundballs he's given up this year, I'm honestly surprised his BABIP isn't higher. Soon, Corbin is going to start giving up more home runs. He's going to start allowing more baserunners, and more of those baserunners are going to come around to score. Like I said, the other shoe is bound to drop.

If I were going to believe that Corbin could keep giving the Blue Jays league-average innings, I’d need evidence that his stuff was meaningfully better than it has been for the last several years. Instead, it might be worse.

Corbin is a stopgap. And to his credit, he’s filled that role with aplomb. Even so, he just isn’t a pitcher that a team with serious playoff aspirations can keep running out there every five days. Maybe he can keep giving the Blue Jays innings, but they won’t be the kind of innings that can help the team win games. 

Unfortunately, there might not be an end in sight for the Corbin era in Toronto. Ponce is out for at least the rest of the regular season. Berríos just had Tommy John. Eric Lauer is a Dodger. Scherzer and Bieber are supposedly nearing their returns, but they both feel like huge wild cards right now. I wouldn’t count on anything from either of them until we see it. 

Even if Scherzer and Bieber both come back healthy, I wonder if Toronto would use a six-man rotation – Gausman, Cease, Yesavage, Bieber, Scherzer, and Corbin – at least temporarily. Yesavage could certainly benefit from a lighter workload, as could Scherzer and Bieber. A six-man setup would also allow the Blue Jays to keep Corbin in the mix, in case another injury comes up. I don't love the idea of Corbin starting more games for the Jays, but I'm even more concerned about the alternative. We don't want to end up in a situation where the team is left with no choice but to cross its fingers and hope that Spencer Miles — who has already thrown more innings this season than he has in his minor league career — can handle a proper role in the rotation.

So, where does this leave us? Well, it’s still early in the season, but it’s not too early to start thinking about the trade deadline. The Jays don’t need to make a move right away, but this rotation is going to need reinforcements eventually. Patrick Corbin is doing great, but he can’t keep doing this all year.

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