Scherzer Needs His Strikeouts

[Leo Morgenstern]

Facing the team that drafted him 20 years earlier, Max Scherzer righted the ship after back-to-back short starts. His outings against the Dodgers and the Twins were enough to make me worry an IL stint was imminent, but Scherzer cruised through six innings on 74 pitches in Arizona, holding the Diamondbacks to a pair of runs. I breathed a sigh of relief after this one, even as the Blue Jays went on to lose 6-2.

One thing that stood out to me from that start was Scherzer's strikeout. Yes, that's strikeout, singular. Of the 22 batters he faced, only one went down on strikes: old friend Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

It's not so often these days that you see the same number in the "K" and "QS" columns on a pitcher's game log. Well, to be perfectly honest, it's actually more common than I thought. I ran a Statcast query for quality starts (at least 6.0 IP, three or fewer earned runs) in which the pitcher struck out one batter or fewer, and I was surprised to see there have already been five this season. There were 29 such starts in 2025. That's rare – it's the same as the number of complete games in 2025 – but it's not like Scherzer's start was some wild anomaly. 

Still, Scherzer's low strikeout rate this season is worth talking about. Through four starts, he's struck out 10 of 68 batters for a 14.7% K-rate. Once again, that's not shockingly low in context. Nineteen pitchers (min. 15 IP) have a lower strikeout rate this season. It is, however, unusually low for Scherzer. At his peak, he was striking out one-third of his opponents. Even as he entered his forties, he kept his K-rate around league average from 2024-25 (22.8%). 

Mad Max has made 299 quality starts in his storied career. The only other time he made a quality start with just one strikeout was in August 2011, before anyone else on this roster was even playing in the major leagues. Meanwhile, the last time he went five starts with a K-rate under 15% was 2010. He's in danger of doing that again – for the first time in 16 years – unless he has better strikeout stuff in his fifth start of the season today. 

Back in 2010, Scherzer had yet to become the legend we know him as today. More to the point, the leaguewide strikeout environment was completely different. The average K-rate for a starting pitcher was 17.6%, compared to 22.3% in 2026. So, relatively speaking, this may be the most Scherzer has ever struggled for strikeouts. That's not good. 

Even more concerning than Scherzer's 10 measly strikeouts are his 22 whiffs on 135 swings (16.3%). Out of 137 pitchers who have induced at least as many swings, only seven have a lower whiff rate. Missing bats isn't the only way to earn strikes, but no pitcher can live on called strikes and foul balls alone. If Scherzer is going to get more strikeouts, he'll have to start by generating more whiffs.

This is especially important because Scherzer relies on strikeouts more than most pitchers. He has always been more of a power pitcher than a pitch-to-contact type. His career groundball rate is 18% below league average. Over the last two years, no starting pitcher has yielded grounders at a lower rate (26.7%). Accordingly, only a handful have given up barrels more often. Some pitchers can survive with a strikeout rate in the mid-teens. (Think late-career Zack Greinke, for example.) Yet, in order to do so, they need enough other tools in their belt. I'm not confident Scherzer has those tools. 

Now comes the time when I bring up small sample size. I know, I'm sorry. I'm sure you're tired of reading that phrase, but honestly, I deserve credit for waiting this long to bring it up. Scherzer has thrown fewer than 20 innings this season. That's nothing. One strong start tonight, and all of a sudden, this could be a non-issue. We also know he's been dealing with forearm tendinitis, even if it doesn't seem particularly serious. In other words, his lack of strikeouts is something to monitor, but not something to keep you up at night. If anyone has earned a little patience, it's the guy who had his first double-digit strikeout game before his youngest teammate was six years old. 

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[Spanky__99]

Max needs to get the f*** out, TBH.