Is This Finally the Year for a True Davis Schneider Breakout?

[Edward E]

This piece was written prior to the Blue Jays' game on Monday, April 20.

It was only three years ago that the Toronto Blue Jays had an unheralded prospect who came out of nowhere to put on a show for his major league debut. That prospect, of course, was Davis Schneider, who was selected in the 28th round of the 2017 MLB Draft. Schneider would record two home runs on nine hits during a three-game series against the Boston Red Sox, becoming the first player to do so in the first three games of his MLB career.

In the end, Schneider would finish off the 2023 season with a .278 average, a 1.008 OPS, and 1.8 bWAR, along with eight home runs and 20 RBIs in just 35 total games played. With that, he appeared to be the next big thing out of Toronto.

However, Schneider hasn’t been able to follow it up in his subsequent two seasons with the Jays, including seeing time back down in the minors to find his game at times. In 2024, he had compiled a .191/.282/.343/.625 slash line, along with a -0.1 bWAR, 13 home runs and 46 RBIs in 135 games played. In 2025, Schneider fared a bit better but still left a lot to be desired with a .234 batting average, 1.3 bWAR, along with 11 home runs and 31 RBIs in 82 total games. Nevertheless, his versatility in being able to play both in the outfield and infield has managed to keep him as a major part of the Blue Jays lineup despite his struggles.

Now we are in 2026, with this being his age-27 season, will Schneider finally break through with the Jays this year? He certainly didn’t look like he was on track to do so after a disappointing Spring Training in which he posted a dismal .132 average, .409 OPS with 12 strikeouts in just 38 total at-bats.

But once the regular season commenced, Schneider started providing some significant impact in helping his team to victories. The 27-year-old outfielder would come through with key hits for the Blue Jays in the early going, leading to their strong start out of the gate. Schneider would similarly have an impressive showing to begin his 2026 campaign, registering a solid .294 average, 1.008 OPS, 0.494 WPA, together with seven runs scored, one home run and five RBIs in his first nine games of the year. That certainly gave him a lot of confidence and put to rest any doubters after his less-than-stellar spring.

However, as the Blue Jays began their recent struggles, so too would Schneider and his bat once again. In his past six contests, he has amassed an abysmal .071/.133/.143/.276 slash line with zero home runs and RBIs to go along with six strikeouts in 15 plate appearances. So can Schneider eventually break out of his mini slump and make this season count?

If taking a look at some of his advanced statistical metrics from Baseball Savant, one would see that he certainly has the breakout potential. With an average exit velocity of an elite 93.2 mph, along with a sea of red in the barrel % (21.1%), hard-hit % (47.4%), LA sweet spot % (36.8%), squared-up % (32.7%), chase % (15.4%), whiff % (21.1%) and walk % (18.4%) categories, it is actually quite surprising that Schneider hasn’t already been posting big numbers to date. His .321 xwOBA could probably tell part of the story as he was unlucky for some of his quality at-bats. We could see things start turning around once it normalizes in due time. Especially after seeing the glimpse of his power potential back in 2023, we all know that he has the ability to be productive if he could put everything together.

Perhaps the Blue Jays should consider where Schneider should be deployed in the batting order to maximize his effectiveness, along with strategic matchups against opposing pitchers could ultimately unlock his potential for good. Once he has established his confidence to produce in all situations, then Toronto would finally have another much-needed offensive weapon to help them to success going forward.

As a result, here we will be rooting on Schneider to overcome his struggles and finally get it done on a consistent basis in 2026.

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