The Blue Jays Aren't Coming Through When They Need To – But It's More Complicated Than That

[Leo Morgenstern]

This piece was written prior to the Blue Jays' game on Wednesday, April 15.

The Blue Jays haven't looked their best with runners in scoring position this season. If you've been watching their games, I doubt you disagree.

Tuesday's matchup with the Brewers was a refreshing change of pace. While both of Toronto's home runs were solo shots, the Jays went 4-for-9 with RISP, driving seven more across the plate, including three in the top of the 10th, for a thrilling 9-7 victory. Yet, even after that performance, the offense is hitting just .231 with RISP. Their 171 plate appearances with runners on second and/or third rank 15th in the majors, but their 40 runs scored put them third to last.

While their batting average is poor and their walk rate mediocre, the real problem has been a lack of power. The Blue Jays own a .082 isolated power with RISP. Only the Royals (.046) have been worse. League average is a .147 ISO. My immediate concern when I saw those numbers was that this was a reflection of a pointed strategy, not just a small sample size fluke. After all, in theory, power matters less with runners in scoring position. That's kind of the whole point of "scoring position" as a concept. Often, a runner on second or third can score on a single. So, one could argue that it's sound strategy to shorten up and just try to put the ball in play with runners in scoring position. Instead of swinging for the fences, swing for a groundball up the middle. 

This might be true in the bottom of the ninth of a tie game. The rest of the time, it's almost always foolish to sabotage your own chances of hitting for extra bases. Thankfully, it doesn't seem like that's actually what the Blue Jays are doing. Although they've yet to hit a home run with RISP this season, their average bat speed is slightly faster, and their average launch angle is slightly higher in such situations. If they were trying to hit more singles, I'd expect those numbers to be lower. 

Now, with that said, the fact that Toronto's disappointing power numbers with runners in scoring position probably aren't on purpose is only so much consolation when the main point is that this team has failed to cash in on a ton of scoring windows. It's why they're below .500 with the second-worst run differential in the league. 

On the flip side, the Jays have been weirdly good with runners on first base (and not second or third). In these specific situations, they've been one of the game's most prolific offenses, with a league-leading seven home runs and .250 ISO. I'd call this a pretty good indication that these splits are mostly noise, especially this early in the season. That doesn't mean they don't matter or they aren't worth talking about. But there's no logical reason the Blue Jays would be so productive with runners on first and suddenly fall apart once those runners reach second or third. I'm annoyed with the way this team has squandered RISP opportunities, but I'm not concerned that it's going to continue. 

There's another wrinkle to all this that I want to address. For as much as the Jays have floundered with runners in scoring position, they have, strangely enough, hit very well in higher-leverage situations. Leverage index measures the average possible change in win expectancy in any given moment based on the inning, the score, the number of outs, and the number of runners on base. All else being equal, an RISP situation will have a higher leverage index than a non-RISP situation. Still, many other factors go into the calculation. So, you might expect a team that has struggled to produce with RISP to have had similar struggles in higher-leverage situations, but that doesn't have to be true. The 2026 Blue Jays are proof.

Through 16 games, the Blue Jays have a .637 OPS and an 83 wRC+ in what FanGraphs defines as "low-leverage" situations. Both numbers rank among the league's bottom 10. In contrast, the Jays rank third in MLB in OPS and wRC+ in medium and high-leverage situations. No team has more hits or fewer strikeouts in these spots, and Toronto's .148 ISO is slightly above league average. 

What does this mean? Well, contrary to what their performance with RISP would have you think, this offense has come through in the most meaningful spots. It just hasn't been enough. 

The Jays' issues with RISP have been a problem. Of course they have. But this team has other problems. Too often, the Jays have looked uncompetitive in low-leverage plate appearances. And if they can't come through when the stakes are low, they can't put themselves in a position to succeed when the stakes are high. Consider this: The Blue Jays are slashing .310/.394/.552 in 99 plate appearances with the tying run on base or at the plate. Only the Rays have been more productive in those situations. However, the Jays are frequently playing from far behind or failing to put themselves far enough ahead. Let's say you're losing 8-1, as Toronto was against Minnesota for most of the game last Sunday. Any plate appearance when you're down by seven is going to be low-leverage, but you can't claw back to a higher-leverage situation unless you score some runs when the leverage is low. Similarly, the best way to prevent your bullpen from blowing a game is to give them a big enough cushion. Opportunities to drive in insurance runs are going to have a lower leverage index than opportunities to score the go-ahead run. That doesn't mean those runs aren't critical, especially for a team whose bullpen has already blown six saves.

Game-state and leverage splits are almost never predictive, but stats aren't only valuable for their predictive utility. We can also use numbers to tell the story of a season, and these splits are some of the best storytelling stats we have. The Blue Jays haven't looked their best with runners in scoring position this season. Yet, the story behind their early-season struggles goes deeper than their struggles with runners in scoring position. Their failure to produce in low-leverage moments has hurt them just as much.

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