Toronto Blue Jays 2026 Position Analysis: Center Field

[Bob Ritchie]

Jays Centre is taking a close look at every position on the Toronto Blue Jays heading into the 2026 season. Check out prior entries in the series here:

• Catcher
• First Base
• Second Base
• Shortstop
• Third Base
• Left Field
• Right Field
• DH

Toronto Blue Jays Center Fielders at a Glance

• Starter: Daulton Varsho
• Backup: Myles Straw
• Depth: Nathan Lukes, Jonatan Clase
• Prospects: RJ Schreck, Jace Bohrofen

 

• Blue Jays Center Field fWAR in 2025: 4th out of 30 (4.4)
• Blue Jays Center Field FGDC Projection for 2026: 12th (3.0)

For the 2021-2025 period, Toronto’s fWAR production from center fielders ranks sixth-highest (16.2 fWAR). The best fWAR during these seasons was generated by the Mariners (23.8); the next-closest was the Yankees (22.3). During those seasons, Toronto’s highest ranking was fourth place in 2025; the lowest in 2024 (21st). Overall, exceptional performance. So, what does 2026 look like for Toronto’s center fielders? 

The Good

Oh, yes, there are tables! The first is a summary of FanGraphs Depth Charts' 2026 projection for Toronto’s outfielders.

According to Depth Charts’ estimate, Blue Jays center fielders will produce the 12th-highest fWAR among MLB teams. That projected performance lags two of Toronto’s American League East rivals: the Yankees (3.9) and Red Sox (3.7). There are good reasons to believe that Toronto’s center fielders will perform better than the projected 3.0 fWAR. More on this later.

	2026 Projected fWAR
	LF	RF	CF	OF
Daulton Varsho			2.7	2.7
Nathan Lukes	0.6	0.4	0.2	1.2
Myles Straw	-	-	0.1	0.1
Jesús Sánchez	1.2	0.2		1.4
Addison Barger		1.0		1.0
Davis Schneider	0.4			0.4
George Springer	0.1	0.6		0.7
Projected 2026 total	2.4	2.3	3.0	7.7
2025 total	2.6	1.9	4.4	8.9
Toronto's Projected Rank - 2026	11	12	12	14
Toronto's Rank - 2025	13	13	4	7
Source: Depth Charts courtesy of FanGraphs

The second table shows the career and 2025 OAA and FRV values for the center fielders. Last season, due to injuries (shoulder and hamstring ailments), Varsho accumulated 550 innings in center field for the Blue Jays. That innings number was 38% of Toronto’s center field total (1,438). Defensively, Straw was superb, as evidenced by his 16 OAA/1200 and 16 FRV/1200 scores. Concerning Lukes, his OAA in center field was -1 in 214 innings, but his FRV was zero because his throwing added one run. Hence, Lukes’ overall center field performance was average.

	Center Field Innings			Center Field OAA Per 1200			Center Field FRV Per 1200
	Career	2025		Career	2025		Career	2025
Daulton Varsho	2,375	550		16	20		17	13
Nathan Lukes	246	214		-15	-6		-15	0
Myles Straw	4,695	532		9	16		9	16
Source: FanGraphs

Regarding Varsho, his decline in arm strength was an issue in 2025. Consider the next table. Please note that the innings shown for each player reflect innings played at all positions (Baseball Savant does not separate the Arm Value numbers by position). However, the Arm Strength numbers shown in the table concern only center field play. 

After the 2024 campaign, Varsho underwent shoulder surgery and did not play again until April 29, 2025. Upon his return, it was evident that Varsho’s arm strength, which was below average before 2025, was weaker. His Arm Strength was 83.7 mph in 2024, but averaged 73.7 mph in 2025. Among the 44 center fielders with at least 100 throws, Varsho’s 2025 73.7 mph ranked last. In 2024, his arm strength ranked 50th out of 54 center fielders. 

	Outfield Innings			Arm Value Per 1200			Fielder Runs	Arm Strength (mph)
	Career	2025		Career	2025
Daulton Varsho	4,330	550		2	-4		-2	73.7
Nathan Lukes	1,150	909		6	5		4	87.0
Myles Straw	4,931	698		0	0		0	82.9
MLB Center Fielder Average								89.6
Source: FanGraphs & Baseball Savant

More Good

In 2025, Toronto batters had 6,180 plate appearances, 1,680 (26%) of which were against left-handed pitchers. Blue Jays’ center fielders produced a 103 wRC+ (ninth-highest) versus lefties. Overall, Toronto’s center fielders posted a 113 wRC+ (fourth-best), including a 116 wRC+ when facing right-handers (MLB’s 10th best). At the player level, when playing center field, the details are as follows:

• The standout was Lukes, who posted a 141 wRC+, followed by Varsho (125) and Straw (88).
• Concerning plate appearances when facing left-handed pitchers, Lukes, Varsho, and Straw had plate appearances totals of 10, 55 and 94, respectively. Their wRC+ scores were 132, 101, and 105, respectively.
• Regarding wRC+ results against right-handed pitchers, Lukes, Varsho, and Straw generated wRC+ scores of 142, 131 and 88, respectively. They produced their wRC+ numbers in 99, 209 and 123 plate appearances, respectively.

For the three center fielders, those 2025 wRC+ numbers are noticeably better than their career splits (when playing all positions). Consider the next table.

	Career Plate Appearances			Career wRC+
	LHP	RHP	Total	LHP	RHP	Overall
Daulton Varsho	532	1,855	2,387	90	101	99
Nathan Lukes	72	488	560	83	109	106
Myles Straw	707	1,572	2,279	74	83	80
Source: FanGraphs

Let’s look on the bright side. It would be nice if Lukes and Straw replicated their 2025 wRC+ numbers this upcoming season. However, the critical center field bat for the Blue Jays is Varsho. Suppose we are witnessing the emergence of Varsho as an above-average MLB hitter. Before 2025, Varsho generated career wOBA, xwOBA and wRC+ scores of .308, .295 and 96, respectively. In 2025, he produced a .345 wOBA, .327 xwOBA and 123 wRC+. The Depth Charts projected fWAR includes a .315 wOBA for Varsho (in 2025, the MLB average wOBA was .313). Suppose the new Varsho produces a .327 wOBA (his 2025 xwOBA) in 2026; his fWAR estimate rises from 2.7 to 3.2. 

Furthermore, the Depth Charts' 2.7 fWAR figure includes a 4.5 Def for Varsho. Suppose Varsho plays 1,220 innings in center field in 2026, which corresponds to a 2.0 Positional Adjustment. Accordingly, Varsho’s projected Fielding Runs number is 2.5 (4.5 Def less 2.0 positional adjustment). That Fielding Runs number seems low. In 2025, Varsho’s Fielding Runs figure was 3.9 in 550 innings. In 2024 and 2023, his Fielding Runs were 13.7 and 11.4, respectively. If Varsho’s 2026 Fielding Runs are, for example, 10.0, his projected 2026 fWAR increases from 2.7 to 3.5. Together with the estimated 0.5 fWAR bump from the .327 wOBA, Varsho’s 2026 fWAR would be 4.0 (all other things being equal).

Suppose Varsho’s 2026 fWAR is 4.0. Toronto’s estimated total center field fWAR rises from 3.0 to 4.3. A 4.3 fWAR would move the Blue Jays’ center field group back up to the fourth-highest fWAR ranking, which it held in 2025.

The Bad

The key to Toronto’s 2026 center field success is Varsho. If his arm strength does not return to its 2024 level, Varsho’s defensive production will suffer. Furthermore, if Varsho does not remain a very good MLB hitter this season, as he was in 2025, Toronto’s center field crew will underperform at the plate.

The Last Word

FanGraphs Depth Charts' 2026 center field projection places Toronto at 12th (3.0 fWAR), which lags the team's fourth-best ranking from 2025. I believe the FGDC estimate is on the low side. If Varsho plays a full season and replicates his 2025 hitting and fielding performance, the Blue Jays should have one of the top center field crews in MLB. Defence, particularly with Varsho and Straw, should be elite. The critical question is whether their bats can excel like they did last season.

View full article