Eric Lauer Had Arbitration Hearing Tuesday, Decision Coming Next Week

[Leo Morgenstern]

As reported by The Athletic's Mitch Bannon, Eric Lauer had his arbitration hearing on Tuesday, February 3. That means his representatives and the Blue Jays went before a three-person panel to make their cases for the respective salary proposals they submitted; Lauer filed at $5.75 million, while the team filed at $4.4 million. According to Bannon, we can expect a decision at some point next week.

Lauer's case is an unusual one. The lefty earned $5.075 million from the Brewers in 2023, his second year of arbitration eligibility. He did not pitch in the majors in 2024, splitting his time between the Pirates' and Astros' Triple-A affiliates and the KBO's Kia Tigers, and he joined the Blue Jays on a minor league contract in 2025. As a result, he was still eligible for one more year of arbitration entering 2026. 

Typically, salaries do not decrease in arbitration. If a team isn't willing to give a player a raise, they simply won't tender him a contract. Lauer is also coming off what was arguably just as strong a season as his last campaign prior to arbitration; according to fWAR, bWAR, and WARP, he was more valuable in 2025 than he was in 2022. With that in mind, it would seem to be a given that Lauer would win his hearing, since he asked for $675,000 more than $5.075 million, while the Blue Jays countered with $675,000 less. 

Yet, the Blue Jays wouldn't have filed at $4.4 million if they didn't think that number had a chance to win. There isn't much of a precedent for players re-entering the arbitration system after returning from a stop overseas. Moreover, precedent isn't everything when it comes to arbitration. If old precedents weren't broken, new ones would never be set. Just look at Tarik Skubal, who asked for $32 million, far more money than a player has ever won in an arbitration hearing. The panel sided with the back-to-back Cy Young winner, setting a new precedent in the process. The Blue Jays are betting that's what happens in this hearing as well. 

In Skubal's case, the panel made the player-friendly decision. Presuming the arbitration system stays in place in the next CBA, their judgment will help boost player salaries for years to come. However, history tells us that, more often than not, arbiters side in favor of teams. That doesn't bode so well for Lauer. It's one thing for the best pitcher in baseball to win over an arbitration panel. An inconsistent swingman is facing a tougher battle. 

It's also worth noting that Toronto's $4.4 million offer is the exact number MLB Trade Rumors projected Lauer would earn in arbitration. The model MLBTR uses, developed by Matt Swartz, considers a player's "playing time, position, role, and performance statistics." It also accounts for inflation. Swartz's model has been the gold standard for predicting arbitration salaries for more than a decade, and it tells us that the panel is more likely to side with the Blue Jays.

All of this to say, there's no good way to guess the outcome here. Thankfully, we're talking about an utterly negligible amount of money for a team like the Blue Jays that has not and will not affect how they operate in the slightest. Arbitration cases are interesting to think about, especially when there isn't much else to think about, but at the end of the day, I just hope Lauer gets his money and both sides can move on and start preparing for the season ahead.

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