What the Blue Jays Can Spend Next Year and Beyond

[Leo Morgenstern]

Even without signing Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette, the Blue Jays have had a successful offseason. While they said goodbye to players like Bichette, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, and Seranthony Domínguez, they improved by adding Dylan Cease, Kazuma Okamoto, Cody Ponce, and Tyler Rogers. They look like one of the best teams in baseball, and they’re primed to defend their AL East title. 

Of course, to do all that, they had to spend. They had to spend a lot. In terms of guaranteed money, the Jays have given out $337 million this winter, in addition to Okamoto’s $10.875 million posting fee. On top of that, this coming season will mark the first year of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk’s extensions, and several more players are due raises, either due to arbitration or back-loaded contracts. As such, RosterResource estimates Toronto’s player payroll will rise from $258 million to $282 million, just a year after increasing from $217 million to $258 million. It shouldn’t come as any surprise that a $282 million payroll would be the highest in franchise history.

What’s more, the Blue Jays’ payroll for luxury tax purposes is an estimated $311 million. For 2025, they ended up paying a $13.6 million tax bill on a CBT payroll of just over $286 million. As of right now, their tax bill for 2026 will be another $22 million higher:

		Tax Rate	Tax
Total CBT Payroll	$310,590,764
Amount between $244M - $264M	$20,000,000	30%	$6,000,000
Amount between $264M - $284M	$20,000,000	42%	$8,400,000
Amount between $284M - $304M	$20,000,000	75%	$15,000,000
Amount over $304M	$6,590,764	90%	$5,931,688
Total			$35,331,688

All things considered, the Jays will be spending almost $50 million more on their roster in 2026 compared to 2025, and about $100 million more than in 2024. That’s a lot of moolah.

Of course, it’s not like they can’t afford it. The Blue Jays have one of the richest owners in the league, and they play in one of the biggest media markets in North America. Oh, and they just so happened to rake in more than $100 million in extra revenue during their run to the World Series last fall. They also still only have the fifth-highest payroll in MLB, trailing the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Phillies. This kind of spending may be unprecedented for Toronto, but that doesn’t mean it’s unsustainable.

With that said, there is a limit to how much the Blue Jays can spend, even if we don’t know what that limit is.

So, presuming the front office is done with major moves for now, I want to turn my attention to how much money is coming off the books next winter. That should give us at least a rough idea of how much Ross Atkins and company will be able to spend for 2027 (and beyond). 

I know a lot could change between now and then. The Blue Jays could still add more payroll. They could also shed payroll. The next free agent class already looks thin, and it will only grow weaker if top projected free agents like Tarik Skubal, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and David Bednar sign extensions, or if players with contract options, like Bichette and Michael King, choose not to opt out. Moreover, the possibility of a lockout looms large. As far as the Blue Jays go, even a slightly less successful 2026 season could put an end to their status as a desirable destination for top free agents or, even worse, persuade ownership to tighten the purse strings. These are all key reasons why Atkins was smart to go big this year. 

Still, it’s always worth thinking ahead. (Also, let’s face it, the offseason is boring right now.) So, let’s talk about how much the Jays will have to work with next offseason.

Expiring Contracts

Six Blue Jays are headed for free agency after 2026. They’re listed below, along with their pay for the upcoming season. Eric Lauer’s salary has yet to be determined, so I listed the halfway point between the number he filed at ($5.75M) and the number the team filed at ($4.4M) for his arbitration hearing.

I also included Myles Straw; he is technically under contract through 2028, but I’d be surprised if the Blue Jays pick up his $8 million club option for 2027 instead of paying a $1.75 million buyout and setting him free.

• George Springer: $24.167 million
• Kevin Gausman: $23 million
• Shane Bieber: $16 million
• Daulton Varsho: $10.75 million
• Yimi García: $7.5 million
• *Myles Straw: $7.4 million ($1.75 million buyout)
• *Eric Lauer: $5.075 million

Total: $92.142 million

That’s a lot of cash coming off the books. In terms of annual salary, it’s significantly more than Toronto spent on free agents this winter (Cease, Okamoto, Rogers, and Ponce will earn about $50 million combined in 2026). However, expiring contracts are only part of the equation.

Guaranteed Raises

Almost every Blue Jay with a guaranteed contract beyond 2026 will see a salary bump in 2027. The only exceptions are Guerrero, Anthony Santander, and Jeff Hoffman. The eight players receiving raises are listed below, along with the amount by which their salary is increasing:

• Kazuma Okamoto: $9 million
• Dylan Cease: $8 million
• Andrés Giménez: $8 million
• Cody Ponce: $6 million
• José Berríos: $6 million
• Tyler Rogers: $5 million
• Alejandro Kirk: $3.625 million
• Yariel Rodríguez: $1 million

Total: $46.625 million

That right there is half the money "freed up" by expiring contracts. And the raises aren’t done coming. 

Players Eligible for Arbitration

Seven players on Toronto's roster will be eligible for arbitration next offseason:

• Ernie Clement (Arb 2)
• Tyler Heineman (Arb 2)
• Louis Varland (Arb 1)
• Brendon Little (Arb 1)
• Davis Schneider (Arb 1)
• Nathan Lukes (Arb 1)
• Bowden Francis (Arb 1)

These players’ salaries are hard to estimate when we don’t know how any of them will perform in 2026. Still, this is another $10 million in raises at the minimum, presuming the Jays tender contracts to all of the above except Bowden Francis.

So, now we’re looking at only $35 million or so to fill significant holes in the rotation (Gausman, Bieber), bullpen (García, Lauer), and lineup (Springer, Varsho, Straw). That’s not a lot to work with. 

Don’t forget, however, that Toronto is also set to pay another $35 million or so in luxury tax penalties for 2026. That’s also money coming off the books, even if it isn't included in the estimated payroll. 

Thankfully, payroll for luxury tax purposes is calculated using AAV, not yearly salaries, so Toronto’s CBT payroll figure won’t be affected by any of the players under guaranteed contract who are earning raises. It will, however, drop significantly thanks to all those expiring deals.  

Right now, RosterResource projects Toronto’s CBT payroll for 2027 at about $202 million. That estimation doesn’t include any salaries for arbitration-eligible players or pre-arb players, so let’s tack on another $20 million for arbitration salaries and $12 million for pre-arb salaries. Those are rough estimates, but rough estimates are all we have right now. That brings the CBT payroll up to $234 million. 

We also don’t know what the luxury tax thresholds or penalties will be in the next collective bargaining agreement. Heck, we can’t be sure the luxury tax as we know it will exist at all come 2027. (We can't be sure Major League Baseball will exist come 2027!) For my purposes right now, I’m going to pretend the current system remains in place. That’s a big presumption, but everyone is operating under big presumptions right now – major league executives included.  

So, let’s say the first threshold for luxury tax penalties increases by $4 million in 2027 and all the penalties stay the same. If the Jays add $35 million in new salary during the 2026-27 offseason, their estimated tax bill would only come to about $10 million. That’s $25 million less than their estimated tax bill for 2026. 

Now, that doesn’t mean they'll have another $25 million to spend, because every dollar spent would also increase their tax bill. But they could spend about $16 million more (on top of that initial $35 million) without increasing their total expenditure compared to 2026. That’s $51 million. All of a sudden, those numerous holes seem a lot more fillable. 

Furthermore, my whole exercise, to this point, has presumed the Blue Jays won’t spend a dime more in 2027 than they will in 2026. Yet, we all know they could spend more. A lot more. 

The Jays reportedly offered Kyle Tucker a 10-year, $350 million deal. We don’t know the exact details of that offer, but presuming the same annual salary all 10 years, Tucker would have added $35 million to the payroll and $31.5 million to the tax bill. That’s another $66.5 million. 

The Blue Jays made a huge splash this offseason. They’re spending at a level we’ve never seen them spend at before. However, their front office isn’t one that ever likes to sacrifice the future for immediate gain, and that’s not what they’ve done here. The Blue Jays should be one of the best teams in baseball in 2026, and the following winter, they should have the financial flexibility to rule the offseason once again.

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