ZiPS Projected Standings Have Blue Jays as Favourites in Tight AL East

[Leo Morgenstern]

Another day, another treat for all of us projection freaks. Earlier this month, Dan Szymborski published the Blue Jays' ZiPS for the upcoming season, and Jays Centre's Matthew Creally wrote about his key takeaways from the new projections. Yesterday, FanGraphs added ZiPS to the 2026 projections leaderboard, giving me the idea to compare Toronto's ZiPS and Steamer projections. Now, we have the first ZiPS projected standings for 2026, and they're very encouraging for the Blue Jays.

I won't give everything away here – go read Szymborski's article on FanGraphs – but ZiPS sees the Blue Jays as the most likely winners of the AL East. Across MLB, only the Dodgers have higher odds of making the playoffs. At the same time, Toronto's division rivals in Boston, Baltimore, and New York are projected to make things difficult. ZiPS might like the Jays the most (by a hair), but the real takeaway is that the AL East is going to be a hotly contested four-team race.

Here's another way to think about it: ZiPS thinks the Blue Jays have a better chance of winning their division than any other team. However, these projections would still tell you to bet the field over the favourite. According to ZiPS, Toronto only has a one-in-three chance to repeat as AL East champions. The odds that one of the Red Sox, Orioles, or Yankees will win are twice as high. 

The Blue Jays stand out from the pack a little more if you look at their 80th-percentile projection. ZiPS thinks this team has a one-in-five shot to win 100 games. (Well, technically, 99.8 games, but I'm going to round up.) Boston has the AL's second-best 80th-percentile projection, and it's 2.1 wins worse than Toronto's. 

As fans, we know how great this team could be if enough goes right. The "what ifs?" are endless. What if Daulton Varsho's power last season was the real deal? What if Anthony Santander bounces back? What if Addison Barger breaks out? What if Trey Yesavage keeps pitching like he did in October? What if Cody Ponce is more than a swingman? What if Kazuma Okamoto translates his NPB power to MLB? I don't need to keep going, but you know I could. That's the point.

Yet, as a fan, it's also easy to overestimate your own team's potential and underestimate everyone else's. That's why it's nice to see some objective evidence that the Blue Jays really do have more upside than their closest competitors. 

On a less pleasant note, the Blue Jays actually have the fourth-worst World Series odds in their division. They also rank below the Astros and Mariners, as well as the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, Braves, and Cubs. One reason for this is how competitive the AL East looks (teams in other divisions have an easier path to a first-round bye), but that doesn't explain why the Jays have worse World Series odds than the Orioles, Yankees, and Red Sox. For whatever reason, ZiPS thinks this team is built to succeed in the regular season but not quite as well-equipped for the playoffs. Perhaps that's because the Blue Jays have more depth than star power in the starting rotation and the bullpen. 

By and large, the Blue Jays and their fans should be pleased with what ZiPS has to say. Even if the front office is done making moves, the team is in a great spot to compete. With that said, the ZiPS projected standings are also a great argument for why the Jays could use one more addition to really set themselves apart.

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