How Anthony Santander's Power Disappeared – And How He Can Get It Back

Anthony Santander’s 2025 season will be one to forget. Fresh off signing a five-year, $92.5 million contract (with deferrals and an opt-out sprinkled in), he was supposed to provide the Blue Jays with some much-needed power as a middle-of-the-order bat. He was coming off a season in which he hit 44 home runs, made the All-Star team, and won the Silver Slugger Award, and the Blue Jays were expecting big things.

Things didn’t go as expected.

He started with just one extra-base hit through his first 14 games, and it didn’t get much better from there. Santander played regularly through the end of May, until a left shoulder injury caused him to miss the next four months. Aside from four games at the end of the regular season and a few playoff appearances, his season was essentially over.

On the whole, his season line reads .179/.273/.304 with six home runs and a 61 wRC+ in 54 games played. The injury certainly was a part of that, but it wasn’t everything. Small sample caveat applied, his strikeout rate rose to a career-high 27.6%, his barrel rate dropped to a career-low 4.5%, and his xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA all fell to career lows. Even when he was playing, he was not up to par.

Now, to find a way to get Santander back to his 2024 levels, we have to learn from what he did so well. The 44 home run total pops off the page, especially so because he doesn't typically hit the ball that hard (62nd percentile average exit velocity in 2024). What he does do well is hit the ball in the air to his pull side frequently. His pull air rate in 2024 was 28%, which had him 12th in baseball. Pair that with a career high 17.1% HR/FB ratio, and Santander was able to break into his home run trot fairly regularly.

In 2025, things were different. The HR/FB ratio regressed to just 10%, well below his 14.2% career average, and while the pull air rate actually rose again (31.3%), he ended up putting a lot more of his batted balls on the ground. In 2024, his 0.56 GB/FB ratio ranked second in baseball (min 200 PA), behind Mookie Betts. In 2025, that number fell all the way to 75th. For a player who has never been a fast runner, hitting balls on the ground more often is likely to lead to more outs.

Here are Santander's GB% and FB% in each portion of the strike zone in 2024 (per Baseball Savant). Keep in mind, the red sections represent a higher rate in the flyball graphic and a lower rate in the groundball graphic:

And in 2025:


In 2024, Santander was elite at turning pitches in almost all quadrants of the zone into fly balls and limiting groundballs. As you can see from the second set of charts, that trend faded in 2025.

One of the main draws of Santander was that he was a switch-hitter who hit fairly evenly from both sides of the plate (career 116 wRC+ as a righty and 111 as a lefty entering 2025). He makes good contact, and coming into this past season, he hadn't struggled much against any one particular pitch type compared to the others.

In 2025, that last point changed as well.

Santander really struggled against four-seam fastballs in his first season with the Blue Jays, posting a .449 OPS and a career-low .207 wOBA on the pitch. Nearly half of his strikeouts (29 of 61) came against four-seamers, and pitchers responded by attacking him with more velocity, particularly at the top of the zone:

via FanGraphs

Compounding the issue, Santander’s bat speed declined across the board, limiting his ability to do damage even when he made contact:

Bat speed decline is typically one of the first signs of aging, and one could look at this as an indication that the now 31-year-old is beginning the decline phase of his career. If it is anything like his 2025, that's a scary thought.

There’s more to factor into this. Santander historically has always caught the ball out in front of his swing, hence why he has been able to hit the ball to his pull side so much. This is why he hits so many foul balls (Davy Andrews of FanGraphs wrote a great piece on that last offseason). His swing was even more out in front in 2025, as you can see here:

via Baseball Savant

The average intercept point in baseball is -2.3 inches. Santander was almost a full foot in front of that in 2025.

We can't rule out the shoulder injury portion of this. As I said at the top, it likely had a lot to do with why Santander struggled. A condition known as a "batter's shoulder" can cause a hitter to lose bat speed on his swing. It makes sense; hitters are far less likely to swing aggressively when they know that a miss will cause pain.

The good news is, there could be a fix to this. Arizona Diamondbacks star Corbin Carroll has also dealt with shoulder injuries, one of which caused him to see his exit velocities drop in his sophomore season. However, he was able to make some swing adjustments. He reworked his swing, adding tilt and using a more vertical bat angle, which helped his numbers rebound. That could be Santander's path back to being the power-hitting monster we know he can be.

The good news is, not all hope is lost for Santander. The Blue Jays have already seen a similar rebound internally. Just last year, George Springer added bat speed, improved against fastballs, and posted his lowest GB/FB ratio since arriving in Toronto.

A healthy offseason to rest and recover, and some small swing tweaks in spring training, could be the difference between a player who hurts the team more than he helps, or one who goes back to being the middle-of-the-order power threat he used to be. 

Either way, whether it's due to health, a slight swing change, or maybe just a vote of confidence, the Blue Jays are banking on Santander to bounce back in a big way, and with the right touch, they just may get what they're wishing for.