Kolby Allard Is the Depth the Blue Jays Need

[Leo Morgenstern]

The Toronto Blue Jays have more starting pitchers than they know what to do with. Their bullpen hasn’t been the subject of nearly as much discussion, but it’s a deep group, too. 

Not including the six main candidates for the starting rotation, the Blue Jays have 10 pitchers on their 40-man roster with at least 50 games of big league experience: Jeff Hoffman, Tyler Rogers, Yimi García, Louis Varland, Brendon Little, Eric Lauer, Tommy Nance, Brendon Little, Braydon Fisher, Mason Fluharty, and Bowden Francis. That doesn’t even include Chasee Lee (32 MLB games); Rule 5 selections Angel Bastardo and Spencer Miles; prospects Ricky Tiedemann, Adam Macko, and Lazaro Estrada (2 MLB games); or the experienced arms that aren’t on the 40-man roster, namely Yariel Rodríguez and Jorge Alcala. 

That’s a lot of names. 

Like I said, it’s a deep group. It’s also a high-variance group.

FanGraphs has Toronto’s bullpen as the seventh-best in baseball on their projected depth charts. However, the difference between the Jays in seventh and the Orioles in 16th is less than one projected win. It isn’t hard to picture a scenario in which this bullpen is one win worse than projected. Heck, it isn’t hard to picture a scenario in which every single member of this arm barn fails to meet expectations.  

What’s the solution?

The Blue Jays don’t need another veteran on a guaranteed contract. They don’t need to limit their flexibility any further. 

 

To limit variance and raise their floor, what they need is even more depth. They need a pitcher who won’t battle for a spot on the Opening Day roster but who offers a proven floor as a capable major league pitcher. They need their next Eric Lauer. They need Kolby Allard.

Allard is a great fit for Toronto. The 28-year-old has appeared in each of the last eight seasons (Experience? Check!), and he’s coming off what was arguably the best year of his career (Upside? Check!). He has a 5.34 ERA and 4.92 FIP for his career, but in 2025, those numbers were 2.63 and 3.54, respectively. 

A southpaw, Allard would help to balance a righty-heavy staff. Like Lauer, he also has experience as both a starter and a reliever. Hopefully, he wouldn’t ever need to start for the Blue Jays, but there’s no such thing as too much rotation depth.

Most importantly, he should be available on a minor league deal.

Listen, Allard was good last year. He really was. The lefty went more than one inning in 23 of his 33 appearances for a total of 62 innings pitched. That’s the second-highest total of his career, and the highest in his years as a primary reliever. Adjusted for park effects and the 2025 run environment, his ERA was 35% better than league average. His FIP was 15% better. His expected ERA ranked in the 79th percentile.

That successful season underscores Allard’s talent. And there could be room for growth. According to pitch models like PitchingBot, Pitching+, and PitchPro, his cutter was his best pitch last year. Per the models, it’s been his best pitch throughout his career. Yet, the on-field results say otherwise. Opposing hitters have crushed his cutter for a .369 wOBA and a .355 xwOBA, compared to a .327 wOBA and .328 xwOBA on all his other pitches. Even last season, when Allard was at his best, his cutter yielded a .376 wOBA and a .363 xwOBA. The rest of his offerings combined for a .278 wOBA and a .272 xwOBA. Those aren’t just good numbers, they’re excellent. 

In a vacuum, his cutter looks like his strongest weapon. In actuality, it’s been holding him back. The right coaching could change that. 

With all that said, I can’t forget I’m writing about a pitcher with a career ERA well above 5.00. Allard signed a minor league deal with Cleveland last winter, went unclaimed on waivers after he was designated for assignment in the summer, and then re-signed with the Guardians on another minor league contract. While he made the postseason roster, he was the only arm that Stephen Vogt never used in Cleveland’s three-game Wild Card Series against Detroit. My point? He’s not going to be in high demand.

Simply put, Kolby Allard isn’t an exciting name. That isn’t a knock on the eight-year MLB veteran, it’s just a fact. 

Leverage index (LI) is a metric that tries to quantify the pressure of any given game situation, taking into consideration the score, the inning, the number of outs, and the runners on base. Allard has made 109 appearances in his big league career; according to LI, he only entered 10 of those games in situations where the pressure was higher than average.

A neutral LI is 1.00. The league average LI for a reliever when entering games tends to hover between 1.10 and 1.15. In other words, relievers tend to enter in higher-leverage situations. That makes sense. 

Allard’s average leverage index when entering games (gmLI) has never been higher than 0.87 in a season. His career average is 0.75. Only one active pitcher (JT Brubaker) has thrown more innings than Allard with a lower gmLI.

All of this means Allard doesn’t often enter games with an opportunity to make a significant impact. And when he has made an impact, it hasn’t often been the kind of impact he was hoping. 

Allard owns a 13-26 record. Only three active pitchers have more career decisions and a lower winning percentage (Patrick Sandoval, Gregory Soto, and former Blue Jay Jordan Hicks). Allard’s teams have gone 37-72 (.339) in his appearances. Those same clubs – the Braves, Rangers, Phillies, and Guardians – had a .524 winning percentage in all their other games. That’s the difference between a 55-win pace and an 85-win pace. On a similar note, Allard has never pitched in the playoffs, despite playing for division-winning teams in each of the past three seasons.

So, as much as I like Allard for the Blue Jays, my appreciation comes with qualifiers. In other words, I like him for what he is: minor league depth. 

Most minor league depth acquisitions don’t work out as nearly well as last winter’s Lauer signing. Still, Lauer’s story is the pudding-covered proof that minor league depth signings are essential. 

My fingers are crossed that the Blue Jays won’t need another Lauer this season. They really shouldn’t. But if they do, Kolby Allard could be that guy.

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