Point/Counterpoint: Should the Blue Jays Sign Cody Bellinger?

[Leo Morgenstern]

Point: The Toronto Blue Jays should make a serious effort to sign Cody Bellinger, one of the top free agents left on the market.

Counterpoint: Signing Bellinger would all but certainly mean giving up on Bo Bichette and Kyle Tucker, widely considered the superior players. 

Point: Tucker and Bichette may be the superior players, but Bellinger is a better fit for Toronto's roster. Having added Kazuma Okamoto, the Blue Jays look stronger in the infield than the outfield right now. (The graphic for Dan Szymborski's Blue Jays ZiPS projections illustrates this well). They're also much stronger from the right-hand side of the plate; their top four projected hitters, according to both ZiPS and Steamer, bat right-handed. Bringing in a lefty-batting outfielder makes a lot more sense than a righty-batting infielder.

Of course, Tucker is a lefty-batting outfielder. But more specifically, he's a lefty-batting right fielder. Bellinger's best position is right field, too. Yet, unlike Tucker, he also has significant experience in center field. That means he could slide over to center in the case of an injury to Daulton Varsho. That's a much better backup plan than a Myles Straw-Nathan Lukes platoon. And considering Varsho only played 71 games last year, a good backup plan is a good idea.

It might sound obvious, but it's also worth mentioning that Bellinger will come significantly cheaper than Tucker. The projections on DiamondCentric's latest top 40 free agents list have Tucker commanding a 10-year, $360 million deal and Bellinger signing for six years and $130 million. Ross Atkins might have an easier time convincing ownership to agree to the latter deal, especially given the luxury tax ramifications: every extra dollar the Blue Jays add to their CBT payroll will be taxed at a 60% rate. What's more, Tucker is attached to a qualifying offer, while Bellinger isn't. Toronto already lost its second and fifth-highest selections in the upcoming draft by signing Dylan Cease. Signing Tucker would cost the Jays their third and sixth-highest picks as well.

Counterpoint: Bichette's value to this team is about so much more than his performance (and his positional fit) on the field. It's hard to replace a player who spent the first decade of his professional career endearing himself to the fanbase. As for Tucker, signing him, the consensus top free agent of the winter, would cement the Blue Jays as a superteam and their 2025-26 offseason as one of (if not the) greatest of all time. Signing Bellinger wouldn't have the same impact. Even if it is the smarter move from a roster-construction standpoint (and I'm not convinced it is), it wouldn't drum up anywhere close to the same kind of excitement in Toronto and around the sport as signing Tucker, or Bichette, for that matter.

It's also worth considering that signing Bellinger right now would be buying high. He was excellent in 2025, with 29 home runs, an .813 OPS, a 125 wRC+, and 4.9 fWAR. However, his wOBA was 25 points higher than his xwOBA. Similarly, his wRC+ (weighted runs created, per FanGraphs) was 19 points higher than his DRC+ (deserved runs created, per Baseball Prospectus). Even more concerning are his home/road splits: He posted a .909 OPS and 152 wRC+ at Yankee Stadium, compared to a .715 OPS and 97 wRC+ in all other ballparks. This is all strong evidence that he won't hit nearly as well going forward, especially if he's playing most of his games outside of the Bronx.

Point: Ah, but Bellinger has consistently outperformed his expected statistics throughout his career. Take a look at the table below:

Cody Bellinger Career Numbers

.344 wOBA	.335 xwOBA
119 wRC+	108 DRC+
.814 OPS	.733 dOPS*

*Deserved OPS, per Baseball Prospectus.

The difference between Bellinger's wOBA and xwOBA is even more pronounced if one ignores his down years from 2020 to '22. From 2017-19 and 2023-25, Bellinger's .363 wOBA was 15 points higher than his .348 xwOBA. There were 122 players with at least 2,000 plate appearances in those years. Only 10 had a larger gap between their wOBA and xwOBA. 

This could be a harbinger of doom. Or it could be a sign that Bellinger's skill set enables him to reliably outperform his expected/deserved stats. When Ben Clemens ranked Bellinger fifth on FanGraphs' Top 50 Free Agents list, he described him as "something of a left-handed version of Isaac Paredes." Paredes has famously made the most of elite directional hitting to post All-Star-calibre numbers despite consistently low bat speed and hard-hit rates. 

As for the home-road splits, I'm not overly concerned. For one thing, Bellinger's strikeout rate at home was just 11.6%. On the road, it jumped to 16.0%. I don't think that has anything to do with Yankee Stadium. Secondly, his BABIP in away games was .255, well below his .284 career average. I expect that number to regress toward the mean going forward. On top of that, Bellinger really did just hit the ball harder in his home ballpark. In other words, he wasn't simply taking advantage of the stadium's dimensions. His hard-hit rate at home was 40.3%; on the road, it was 35.5%. While Yankee Stadium is particularly favourable to left-handed sluggers, Statcast tells us Bellinger would have hit 28 home runs last year if he'd played all his games at the Rogers Centre. That's only one fewer than his actual total of 29. 

Bellinger has certainly had his ups and downs, and he certainly comes with some degree of risk. At the same time, we're talking about a player who has been 19% better than league average in his career (119 wRC+) and 23% better than league average over the past three seasons (123 wRC+). We may not know exactly who Cody Bellinger is, but we've got a pretty good idea. 

Mike Petriello of MLB.com put it very well in his recent analysis of Bellinger:

Quote

Now that we have three consecutive prime-age, mostly healthy seasons, which all bear some similarities, it’s not all that hard to know what kind of player this version of Bellinger is. He’s going to make a lot of contact. He’s not going to swing that fast (20th percentile bat speed last year) or produce much hard-hit contact (26th percentile). The end result is above-average, at times very good, offense.

Counterpoint: Okay, so maybe Bellinger is a better hitter than I'm giving him credit for. Even so, his demands are too high. The Yankees reportedly made him an offer for a five-year contract with an average annual value above $30 million. He's holding out for a seven-year deal. That's more than a 30-year-old with an injury history and an inconsistent track record is worth. 

DiamondCentric predicted Bellinger would sign for six years and $130 million. FanGraphs and MLB Trade Rumors both had him signing for five years and $140 million. The Yankees offered him more than that, and he turned up his nose. If the Blue Jays swoop in and make Bellinger the kind of offer it's going to take to steal him away from the Yankees, they'll be making a mistake.

Point: More than five years and more than $150 million is a lot for Bellinger. I'm with you. But "a five-year contract with an average annual value above $30 million" is essentially the deal Pete Alonso signed with the Orioles (five years, $155 million). Kyle Schwarber got five years and $150 million. If that's what those guys got, I can see why Bellinger wants more.

Schwarber and Alonso are better, more consistent hitters than Bellinger. That's no debate. The thing is, Bellinger also has excellent range, a strong throwing arm, and well-above average sprint speed. According to FanGraphs and Baseball Reference, he outperformed Alonso by about a win and a half in 2025. Bellinger and Schwarber were more similar in value last season, but Schwarber is two years older and entering his mid-thirties. Given Bellinger's age and diverse skill set, I'm confident he will be the better player for longer.

I'm not alone in that belief, either. FanGraphs, MLB Trade Rumors, and ESPN were just some of the many sources that ranked Bellinger ahead of Schwarber and Alonso on their offseason free agent lists. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel was particularly high on Bellinger, projecting a six-year, $165 million deal. That could be the compromise kind of offer that ultimately gets a deal done. 

Would the Blue Jays be making a mistake if they offered Bellinger six years and $165 million? Before I answer that, I want to throw your words back in your face. Because they wouldn't just be signing Bellinger, they'd be stealing him away from the Yankees. That means the Jays wouldn't only be adding a three-win player, but they'd be taking those wins away from their closest rival. The Yankees, after all, have been Bellinger's most ardent suitors this winter.

Now, of course, the Yankees could turn around and sign Tucker or Bichette after missing out on Bellinger, making this whole point moot. But they've been crying poor (by their own standards) all winter, so GM Brian Cashman might not be able to give either of them what they're looking for. It's very possible that by signing Bellinger, the Jays could give themselves a real leg up over the Yanks. 

Counterpoint: Fair enough. Maybe Bellinger's demands aren't unreasonable. But it isn't true that by signing Bellinger, a projected 3.0-WAR player, the Blue Jays would be adding three wins of value to their roster. Their lineup is already good. Very good. The marginal upgrade Bellinger would provide isn't worth the money it's going to take to sign him, especially considering how far over the luxury tax the Blue Jays already are. 

As it stands, the Blue Jays have an everyday center fielder (Varsho) and a plethora of options for the corners, including Anthony Santander and Addison Barger, as well as Nathan Lukes, Davis Schneider, Myles Straw, and possibly Kazuma Okamoto and George Springer. Not to mention Joey Loperfido. Bellinger might be better than any of them, but he isn't better enough to justify the expense. Besides, he would take significant playing time away from one of the presumed starters, either Santander, an All-Star just two years ago, or Barger, a promising young hitter. 

Point: It's awfully optimistic to suggest that Bellinger would only be a marginal upgrade. If Santander bounces back and Barger breaks out, then yeah, the Blue Jays will have a bit of a logjam on the roster. But that's a champagne problem if I've ever heard one, and it would only last a year. After 2026, Springer will become a free agent, opening up the DH spot for Santander. Problem solved. On the flip side, if Santander or Barger struggles this season, then you, me, and Ross Atkins will all be thanking our lucky stars they signed Bellinger.

Counterpoint: Well then, you can call me a wide-eyed optimist, because I think the Blue Jays can compete for a World Series with their roster exactly as constructed. Unless they're signing Tucker or Bichette, they don't need to spend another dime.

As much fun as I had debating with myself, I'd love it if you joined in! Please share your thoughts on the Blue Jays potentially signing Cody Bellinger in the comments below.  

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