Mark Buehrle Made His Hall of Fame Case With the Blue Jays

[Leo Morgenstern]

It’s an honor just to be included on the National Baseball Hall of Fame ballot. 

To be eligible for election by the BBWAA, an individual “shall have ceased to be an active player in the major leagues at least five (5) calendar years preceding the election” (per the Hall of Fame’s official website).

For the current election cycle, that means a player must have spent his final days on an active roster during the 2020 season. 

According to Baseball Almanac, 148 MLB players retired in 2020, from Adeiny Hechavarría to Zac Grotz. Only 12 of them were added to the ballot this year – that’s less than 10%. 

In 2019, there were 229 players who played their final game. Only 14 of them (6.1%) made the ballot for last year’s election. In 2021, a whopping 318 MLBers suited up for the last time. Chances are, less than 5% of them will appear on next winter’s ballot.

So, when Mark Buehrle first appeared on the Hall of Fame ballot six years ago, it was a whole lot more than a participation trophy. It was a reflection of his tenure with the Chicago White Sox. Over 12 seasons on the South Side, Buehrle made 365 starts (390 games) with a 3.83 ERA. He made four All-Star teams, won three Gold Gloves, and helped the Sox to three division titles and an AL pennant.  

That’s why he’s on the ballot. But it’s not enough to make up a legitimate Hall of Fame case.

One could argue that Buehrle’s overall body of work – those 12 years with the White Sox, as well as one with the Marlins and three with the Blue Jays – was not enough to make him a Hall of Famer. Most would agree.

Yet, 45 members of the BBWAA checked the box next to Buehrle’s name last year, and 33 have already done so for 2026. That’s not going to get him in the hall, but it’s no small number either. 

I can’t speak to what all of those voters were thinking. But as far as I see it, any case to be made for Buehrle has everything to do with what he accomplished in Toronto. 

Mark Buehrle was never a superstar. He only earned Cy Young votes once, when he received five of 30 third-place votes and finished fifth in 2005. 

His defining trait was durability, not dominance. In 2001, his first full season, he led the AL in WHIP. Over the next 14 years, the only other categories he ever paced the league in were durability-related: starts (2004, ‘08), innings pitched (‘04, ‘05), batters faced (‘04, ‘05), and complete games (2015).

Thus, to make a Hall of Fame case for Buehrle, one must be able to argue that he was uniquely durable. And it was during his time in Toronto that his durability went from impressive to exceptional.

Most Hall of Fame conversations revolve around one of two words: peak or longevity. 

Some Hall of Famers earned their place with a tremendous performance over their best handful of seasons. Others did so by sticking around long enough to rack up high counting stats. Why do I say that most conversations revolve around only one or the other? Well, if a player had both a great peak and impressive longevity, there’s not much of a conversation to be had – he’s getting in. 

Buehrle, however, is a bit of an unusual case. He didn’t have an outstanding peak, but he also didn’t hang around that long. He debuted halfway through 2000 as a reliever, then played 15 seasons as a starter from 2001 to '15. I don’t mean to say that 16 seasons in the majors isn’t an accomplishment, but we’re talking about the Hall of Fame here. According to Stathead Baseball, 260 pitchers in major league history have appeared in 16 or more seasons. It's not that special.

Buehrle was never an exceptional pitcher, nor did he pitch for an exceptionally long time. Yet, he was a good pitcher for a long time in a way that does still stand out as highly unusual and, arguably, (here's that word again) exceptional.

The article on Wins Above Replacement (i.e., WAR) from the FanGraphs glossary features this useful little chart:

Scrub	0-1 WAR
Role Player	1-2 WAR
Solid Starter	2-3 WAR
Good Player	3-4 WAR
All-Star	4-5 WAR
Superstar	5-6 WAR
MVP	6+ WAR

According to FanGraphs, Buehrle only had one season with more than 5.0 WAR (a.k.a. the “superstar” range). Baseball Reference’s version of the metric likes Buehrle a little more; he had four seasons with at least 5.0 bWAR in his career. That's still not a ton.

However, Buehrle surpassed the “good player” threshold in 11 different seasons, according to both those versions of WAR. He’s one of only 33 pitchers in MLB history to have done so. Of those 33…

• 25 are Hall of Famers
• Three are sure-thing future Hall of Famers 
• Two would be Hall of Famers based on performance alone 
• Two deserved far more Hall of Fame consideration than they ever received 
• One is Mark Buehrle

Pitcher	Hall of Fame?
Bert Blyleven	Yes
Bob Gibson	Yes
Christy Mathewson	Yes
Cy Young	Yes
Don Drysdale	Yes
Don Sutton	Yes
Eddie Plank	Yes
Gaylord Perry	Yes
Greg Maddux	Yes
Grover Alexander	Yes
Jim Bunning	Yes
John Smoltz	Yes
Kid Nichols	Yes
Lefty Grove	Yes
Mike Mussina	Yes
Nolan Ryan	Yes
Pedro Martínez	Yes
Phil Niekro	Yes
Randy Johnson	Yes
Robin Roberts	Yes
Steve Carlton	Yes
Tom Glavine	Yes
Tom Seaver	Yes
Walter Johnson	Yes
Warren Spahn	Yes
Clayton Kershaw	Future
Justin Verlander	Future
Max Scherzer	Future
Curt Schilling	No but...
Roger Clemens	No but...
Kevin Brown	No
Rick Reuschel	No
Mark Buehrle	Pending

Buehrle is also one of just 15 pitchers in MLB history to have made at least 30 starts in 15 or more seasons. Of the 14 others, 12 are already in the Hall of Fame (and one is Clemens).

Pitcher	30-Start Seasons	Hall of Fame?
Don Sutton	20	Yes
Greg Maddux	19	Yes
Cy Young	19	Yes
Phil Niekro	18	Yes
Warren Spahn	18	Yes
Tom Glavine	17	Yes
Steve Carlton	17	Yes
Gaylord Perry	17	Yes
Roger Clemens	16	No
Frank Tanana	16	No
Nolan Ryan	16	Yes
Bert Blyleven	16	Yes
Tom Seaver	16	Yes
Mark Buehrle	15	Pending
Walter Johnson	15	Yes

Even more impressive, Buehrle joins a trio of Hall of Famers – Cy Young, Warren Spahn, and Gaylord Perry – as the only pitchers to have made 30 or more starts in at least 15 consecutive seasons. 

Now, to be fair, some of the other pitchers on the list above had their careers interrupted by strikes and war, but that shouldn't take away from the rarity of what Buehrle accomplished. Only four pitchers have ever done it. Three of them are indisputably among the best to ever do it. The other is Buehrle. Do with that what you will.

At risk of sounding like a broken record, I’m not arguing Buehrle belongs in the Hall of Fame. Maybe he does, maybe he doesn't. That's not the point I'm here to make. What I’m saying is that if he has a case, it’s that he was consistently above-average for so many years in a way few other pitchers have ever been.

In other words, if Buehrle has a Hall of Fame case, it’s because of how his career ended. It’s because he was still a good pitcher and still a workhorse at an age when most others start to slip.

In his final three seasons, from ages 34 to 36, Buehrle made at least 32 starts each year. He averaged more than 200 innings per season. His ERA over those three years was 3.78, almost identical to his 3.81 career mark. At 35 years old, he pitched his 11th and final three-win season. At 36 years old, he tied for the MLB lead with four complete games. He did all that while wearing Blue Jays blue.

It’s not that Buehrle was spectacular for Toronto, but that’s the whole point. Buehrle doesn’t have a Hall of Fame case because he was ever spectacular. He has a Hall of Fame case because he kept on keeping on.

And he did that with the Toronto Blue Jays.

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