Can Addison Barger Be the Next Blue Jays Homegrown Star?

[Edward E]

Entering the 2025 MLB season, expectations weren’t too high for Toronto Blue Jays youngster Addison Barger. After all, Barger struggled to produce on a consistent basis during his various stints up in the big leagues in 2024. Nevertheless, he did show some promise in the end, tallying seven home runs and 28 RBIs over 69 games played. However, a 0.4 bWAR and 68 OPS+, along with an average exit velocity of 88.3 mph and a hard-hit rate of 38.3%, left a lot to be desired.

However, 2025 would turn out to be the coming out party for Barger. Not only did he become a regular in the Blue Jays lineup following his promotion in mid-April, but he would eventually be a key piece of their offensive attack during the regular season and the playoffs. So, with his sudden emergence to prominence, can Barger become the next homegrown star for Toronto?

Taking a look at the numbers, the 26-year-old registered a .243 average and a .756 OPS, together with 61 runs scored, 32 doubles, 21 home runs and 74 RBIs over 135 games played in his first full season with the Jays. Just for comparison, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had a slightly better average (.272) and OPS (.772), but just 52 runs scored, 26 doubles, 15 home runs and 69 RBIs in 123 games played in 2019, his first full season with Toronto.

Going more in-depth with the advanced stats, Barger saw his average exit velocity jump to 91.7 mph this past season, ranking him in the 86th percentile in the league. His elite hard-hit rate of 51% ranked in the 91st percentile. More impressive was his bat speed of 75.9 mph, putting him into the 93rd percentile in the league. At the same time, Barger had a respectable xwOBA of .331 and barrel rate of 11.4%. As for Guerrero, he actually paled in comparison in his first full season with the Jays, maintaining just an 89.4 mph average exit velocity, a 38.7% hard-hit rate, and 7.7% barrel rate, though he managed a similar .333 xwOBA, thanks to superior plate discipline and contact skills. Seeing how Guerrero has turned out for the Blue Jays in recent years, Barger is absolutely on the right path in his development.

That being said, perhaps Barger's ascension is more similar to that of Bo Bichette, who burst out big time in his first full season in 2021, producing a .298 average and an .828 OPS, along with 121 runs scored, 29 home runs and 102 RBIs over 159 games played. That year, Bichette had an xwOBA of .350, an average exit velocity of 91.4 mph, a 47.5% hard-hit rate and a 9.9% barrel rate. So, overlooking Bichette's massive offensive production, Barger’s underlying metrics look quite similar to those of Bichette from his first full season.

One thing to keep in mind is the fact that it took Barger until age 25 before entering his first full season with the Jays, whereas for both Guerrero and Bichette, their first full seasons with Toronto came at a much younger age (20 and 23, respectively). As a result, it was reasonable to expect that they had some more time to grow, whereas Barger had a lot more time to mature his game before taking the big stage. In addition, if taking a look at their performances from the minors, both Guerrero (.945 OPS, 160 wRC+) and Bichette (.894 OPS, 144 wRC+) were better hitters than Barger (.814 OPS, 120 wRC+) before their first full seasons in the majors. So, potential-wise, one would expect greater things from the Jays' dynamic duo.

Nevertheless, Barger optimistically displayed rapid growth and maturity in his game when he was able to adapt and elevate his play during the postseason. He hit .367 with a 1.024 OPS, together with eight runs scored, three home runs and nine RBIs in 17 playoff games, coming through with big hits in some key moments. 

As a result, if Barger is able to progress his game as both Guerrero and Bichette did theirs, the Blue Jays might not need to waste too much money targeting any top free agent sluggers on the market. That is because they could have a budding one in Barger, who could be developing into the team’s next homegrown star. He might not be quite at the elite star-production level of the other two aforementioned players, even once he reaches his full potential, but getting the next Shawn Green or Adam Lind (when they were in their primes) wouldn't be too shabby either.

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