Blue Jays Clutch Plays: Varsho Shines, Bullpen Turns It Around

Welcome back to Blue Jays Clutch Plays, a recurring post that highlights the six most pivotal plays (three pitching, three hitting) from the past week of Blue Jays baseball, according to MLB's win probability model. Click here to read last week's edition.

The Toronto Blue Jays remained a tough watch for most of the past week, but after a couple more losing efforts against the Rays, a walk-off grand slam from Daulton Varsho prevented another sweep before the Jays prevailed in a three-day war of attrition in Detroit. It hasn't been a pretty month, but the AL is such a logjam that the Blue Jays' 21-25 record puts them only one game back of the final Wild Card spot. Opportunity awaits in the form of their upcoming four-game set versus the Yankees, who are 6.5 games up on the Jays after dropping a series against their crosstown rival Mets over the weekend.

Pitching

3. Louis Varland: Cedric Mullins Popout, Top 9, 5/12 (+15.0% wPA)

Tuesday night's loss to Tampa Bay was a 10-inning nailbiter, and Louis Varland's scoreless ninth didn't come easy. With the go-ahead run at third and two outs in the frame, Varland went with a 98-mph fastball as his payoff pitch to Cedric Mullins and elevated it enough that Mullins skied it harmlessly to shallow center. Daulton Varsho had a lot of ground to cover, but he got there in time to make a sliding backhanded catch.

2. Louis Varland: Jake Rogers Groundout, Bot 10, 5/16 (+15.8% wPA)

Varland's biggest performance of the year came on Saturday afternoon as he authored a six-out save on 26 pitches to steal a victory on a bullpen day. The offense didn't manage to score anyone besides the ghost-runner in the top half, but "The Committee" needed just one pitch to start closing the door in the bottom half as this outside fastball incinerated Jake Rogers's bat before rolling slowly into Ernie Clement's glove at shortstop.

1. Louis Varland: Dillon Dingler Strikeout, Bot 10, 5/16 (+16.8% wPA)

The final punch from Varland's latest herculean effort was a tumbling knuckle curve to get Dillon Dingler swinging after the tying run had moved up 90 feet. Following this week, Varland now has the eighth, ninth, and 10th-most clutch plays of the season amongst Blue Jay pitchers, which are worth a combined 47.6% wPA on their own...and don't even include the plays at No. 1, 4, and 7 on that list, for which he was also on the mound. If this team rights the ship, we may talk about this Varland performance alongside the Mason Fluharty game at Dodger Stadium from last August.

Hitters

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Reached on Error, Bot 7, 5/12 (+22.1% wPA)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. finally broke out of his weeks-long home run drought on Sunday, but early in the week, he was still searching for that big break. Junior Caminero gifted it to him with two outs in the bottom of the seventh and the Jays down by one on Tuesday, failing to come up with the groundball to his left. Yohendrick Piñango scored from second, and for a moment, the baseball gods smiled upon the Blue Jays instead of their rivals to the south.

2. Daulton Varsho: RBI Single, Top 10, 5/16 (+25.2% wPA)

For the second time in three games, Varsho delivered the decisive blow in extra innings for an otherwise struggling offense. In a lefty-lefty matchup with Detroit reliever Tyler Holton, Varsho got a pitch in his wheelhouse down in the zone and stayed on it long enough to line it up the middle and score Guerrero from second. Toronto's center fielder has had an inconsistent year, but his timely hits last week have helped his wRC+ tilt back to the right side of league average.

1. Daulton Varsho: Walk-Off Grand Slam, Bot 10, 5/13 (+68.4% wPA)

It doesn't get much more dramatic than a come-from-behind victory on a walk-off slam. The Jays would be incredibly fortunate if one of their hitters comes up with another swing as big as this at any point the rest of the season. At the time, it was the ninth-biggest single-play change in wPA in the major leagues in 2026. The Blue Jays have only had eight offensive plays worth at least a 60% jump in wPA since the start of 2021. Here's an eerie fun fact: The team's most clutch play of 2025? A go-ahead home run by Varsho in the eighth inning...also against the Rays at the Rogers Centre...exactly one year before this grand slam on May 13.